If Candidate Does Not Receive 270 Electoral Votes

[quam]

To win the electoral college a candidate must successfully obtain 270 votes. If not, according to Amendment XII:

the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.

If 270 votes are not reached, the U.S. House of Representatives will vote on the winner of the election. Contrary to the electoral college's dependency on population size for the determination of the number of votes per state, the presidential selection in the House would be determined where each state delegation exercises one vote. One vote per state, no matter a state's population.

During two elections, 1801 and 1825, the House selected Presidents Thomas Jefferson and John Quincy Adams. While there is precedent, there are some challenges which may arise. Residents of the District of Columbia, for instance, exercise a vote in the electoral college for the President, but have no influence if the House was to select a President. Would District of Columbia residents be denied a right to input/a voice in the selection of a President when they are, via the electoral college, provided such an opportunity?

The current election is tight and some forecasts show neither candidate reaching 270 votes. Assuming each House member would tow the party line we can determine, now, the winner by counting a party's majority in each state.

State - Party
ALABAMA – R
ALASKA – R
ARIZONA – R
ARKANSAS – D
CALIFORNIA – D
COLORADO – R
CONNECTICUT – R
DELAWARE – R
FLORIDA – R
GEORGIA – R
HAWAII – D
IDAHO – R
ILLINOIS – R
INDIANA – R
IOWA – R
KANSAS – R
KENTUCKY – R
LOUISIANA – R
MAINE – D
MARYLAND – D
MASSACHUSETTS – D
MICHIGAN – R
MINNESOTA – SPLIT
MISSISSIPPI – SPLIT
MISSOURI – R
MONTANA – R
NEBRASKA – R
NEVADA – R
NEW HAMPSHIRE – R
NEW JERSEY – D
NEW MEXICO – D
NEW YORK – D
NORTH CAROLINA – R
NORTH DAKOTA – D
OHIO – R
OKLAHOMA- R
OREGON – D
PENNSYLVANIA – R
RHODE ISLAND – D
SOUTH CAROLINA – R
SOUTH DAKOTA – D
TENNESSEE – D
TEXAS – SPLIT
UTAH – R
VERMONT – IND
VIRGINIA - R
WASHINGTON – D
WEST VIRGINIA – D
WISCONSIN – SPLIT
WYOMING – R

R: 29
D: 16
IND: 1
SPLIT: 4

Though I verified my results 3 times, I may have made a mistake. I could not find similar analyses elsewhere on the Web.

Bush would be the winner, with at least 29 of the 50 votes.

There are some interesting observations to be made. Some states likely to vote Democratic or Republican in the election, will switch under a House vote. For instance, Bush is practically guaranteed South Dakota, but its one Representative, Stephanie Herseth, is a Democrat.

Some states with an even number of Democratic and Republican representation in the House split 50/50, including Texas.

[wuushew]

1. The incoming Congress would decide this

n/t