Why is the American Research Group (pollsters) smearing the Dean campaign?

[stickdog]

In the NH latest tracking poll, ARG insinuates that the Dean campaign is telling older independent voters that they aren't eligible to vote in the NH primary in order to diminish Clark's supposed strength.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

Over the past 2 days of calling, a number of older respondents registered as undeclared voters have reported that they have received telephone calls from a campaign informing them that they will not be allowed to vote in the Democratic primary because they missed the deadline to switch parties. A respondent discovered, however, that when she told the caller that she was thinking about voting for Howard Dean, the caller told her that she would be eligible to vote.

But note the way the smear is worded. "A number" could mean any number greater than zero. And if a respondent told you this, wouldn't your first question be "which campaign is doing this?"

Were all of these voters too senile to remember which campaign was trying to dissuade them from voting?

If not, why doesn't ARG come right out and tell us which campaign?

And if so, why publish smearing innuendo based on a single response?

[Dookus]

1. the better question is

Why is the Dean campaign engaging in such dishonorable tactics?

[slinkerwink]

2. it's not the Dean campaign---it's too sloppy, and it smells of Rove

to discredit the Dean campaign. Who's got the most to gain from this? It's either the Clark or the Kerry campaigns.

[isbister]

6. Re:

Kerry's been upfront and honest when he has something to say about Dean and there's really nothing to base such an accusation on... against the Clark campaign either, as far as I know.

Its sloppy, we've seen a lot of sloppy from Dean for the last month and that's why it is easy to believe its from the Dean camp.

[Sean Reynolds]

7. She didn't say Clark and Kerry were behind it.

She said that Rove was behind it and that both Kerry and Clark benefit from it. Meaning of course Rove is scared of Dean. I agree with that.

Dean isn't this stupid. This just SMELLS of Republican crap!

[isbister]

10. Yup

Read "What is your (or the ARG's) evidence that they are?" below.

That's exactly what's being said.

Do I think Dean or his people are behind it, no. Could it be a misguided supporter or two, yes. Could it be republicans, I doubt it... they want Dean win.

[Sean Reynolds]

13. If they wanted Dean to win........

The media wouldn't be on his ass like they are.

Media = corporate whores = RNC = Bush = Rove!

[isbister]

44. Re: If they wanted Dean to win

Ahhh, but there's nothing the media loves more than building up people (and things) and then tearing them down.

[Sean Reynolds]

48. I think that was at a time no one thought Dean would do it.

They all thought he was the flavor of the month and in a few weeks would be nothing again. When that didn't happen they began to up their attacks. At first it was small things, but as the election gets closer they're bombs. Why? Well I really believe the GOP thinks Dean can beat Bush.

There are two polls out now that show Dean 7 points and 5 points behind Bush. I'm sensing some insider polls show Dean actually beating Bush.

[markus]

65. How the GOP gains from this

If the inside polls of the Bush campaign show the same results as the public polls, then spreading confusion in the Democratic camp serves Bush better than favoring or harming any particular candidate.

This sort of stealth calling is a standard GOP practice. The Dean part may have been intentional, or may have just been a spontaneous action by the sort of evil young GOP campaign staffer who would cheerfully sit up all night eating pizza and calling old people to tell them not to bother to shop up to vote as they're not registered.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

77. Hate to say it but Trippi has a history of this sort of thing....

I worked in Chicago politics for years and Trippi has been known to pull a lot of dirty tricks - and yes, I have seen him do some rather sloppy work.

Here he "brags" about his dirty tricks back in the Mondale campaign. Admitting to this sort of thing is sloppy in itself IMO....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=85218

Trippi has the bad habit of getting too cocky - thinking that he's "invincible" and then he gets reckless....

[Skwmom]

50. Sloppy? You mean like the Dean campaign having reporters

listen in on their dirty tricks strategy?

[shance]

4. You know damn well the Dean campaign isnt doing this.....

but you cant help yourself by pouring gasoline on the flames.

If you are for Clark, fine. AND, if you actually CARE about the Democratic party, I would hope you would be concerned about this baseless slander.

Unbelievable some of you are frothing to make Dean guilty until innocent. You do your candidate NO good by attacking Dean. Remember there are more Dean supporters than there are Clark. Stop the attacks if you really care about the direction we are headed.

[stickdog]

5. What is your (or the ARG's) evidence that they are?

The single respondent who implied the Dean campaign was behind this could have been a Republican or a Clark or Kerry supporter.

[QC]

17. Amen, brother. n/t

[Cheswick2.0]

61. that's not the better question

the better question is why would you say that absent any evidence?

[windansea]

3. thanks for bringing this up

"Were all of these voters too senile to remember which campaign was trying to dissuade them from voting?"

nice...good way to win seniors over to Dean by calling them senile

here's what Josh Marshall reports


"Okay, this is weird.

The analysis on today's ARG poll release concludes thus ...

Over the past 2 days of calling, a number of older respondents registered as undeclared voters have reported that they have received telephone calls from a campaign informing them that they will not be allowed to vote in the Democratic primary because they missed the deadline to switch parties. A respondent discovered, however, that when she told the caller that she was thinking about voting for Howard Dean, the caller told her that she would be eligible to vote.

The clear implication of this comment is that someone from the Dean campaign is making some sort of push-poll trying to depress the turnout of a voting group that leans against Dean (or at least isn't his strongest), i.e., older voters."

Josh talked persoanlly with the president of ARG today:

"This afternoon I spoke to Dick Bennett, president of ARG. And here's what he told me.

On Wednesday evening, ARG interviewers (i.e., the folks who call you on the phone) started noticing that a number of older independent voters were screening themselves out of the survey because they'd been called by another campaign and told that they wouldn't be eligible to vote because they'd missed the deadline to declare as Democrats.

But that's not how New Hampshire law works. Independents (called undeclared voters in the state) can vote in either primary. And they don't have to decide till they're at the polling station.

ARG's interviewers kept hearing the same thing on Thursday night and Bennett told TPM he found out about it when one of his supervisors asked him whether the voting law in the state had been changed.

Bennett said his interviewers had not compiled a list or numbers of how many people they called who had mentioned this. But his interviewers apparently spoke to quite a few respondents each evening who had gotten these calls.

Based on that information, Bennett decided to mention it in his daily poll analysis."

stay tuned...but rest assured...Josh and probably every other paper in New Hampshire is looking into this...I'm sure the truth will come out


:)

[Sean Reynolds]

8. Do you think Dean would risk it?

I mean really. It's too sloppy and I doubt Dean would risk it. He leads in Hew Hampshire, it's obvious he's got strong support. Why risk it? It doesn't make sense. ALL signs point to the fact that it shouldn't be Dean.

This SMELLS like Republican crap to me and I wouldn't doubt it if were.

[stickdog]

12. Damn! Josh Marshall is already working OT to spin some sense into this???

Let's deconstruct our favorite Clark blogger's spin:

ARG's interviewers kept hearing the same thing on Thursday night and Bennett told TPM he found out about it when one of his supervisors asked him whether the voting law in the state had been changed.

Bennett said his interviewers had not compiled a list or numbers of how many people they called who had mentioned this. But his interviewers apparently spoke to quite a few respondents each evening who had gotten these calls.

Based on that information, Bennett decided to mention it in his daily poll analysis.


Note that Dick Bennett's explanation (via Marshall's spin) sounds reasonable enough, but it completely ignores the issue of why Bennett felt compelled to end his "analysis" with this sentence, "A respondent discovered, however, that when she told the caller that she was thinking about voting for Howard Dean, the caller told her that she would be eligible to vote."

Unless Bennett is anti-Dean, why would someone trained in statistical analysis deem the offhand innuendo of a single poll respondent newsworthy enough command a full sentence of his seven sentence summary?

Even the great Josh Marshall can't spin a lick of sense out of this talking point!

[madfloridian]

14. Marshall could have handled it better than that at the beginning.

I think he helped to spread a rumor instead of pointing out it could have been like something that happened in the 2000 elections....done by the GOP folks. I feel he did not write it without implication until he was called on it.

That is wrong. Dean has both parties and press against him, and now a blogger.

[windansea]

15. heh heh

actually I thought Josh supported Dean...but no matter...he's an honest writer

and don't worry...a WHOLE BUNCH of journalists will be looking into this...in New Hampshire and national

relax...the truth will come out

:kick:

[Sean Reynolds]

18. Yes it will.

[stickdog]

23. Really? Can you cite any examples of Marshall's supposed pro-Dean

proclivities?

And about the WHOLE BUNCH of journalists looking into this -- are they going to publish unsubstantiated innuendo like ARG and our friend Josh or are they going to wait until they actually uncover a real story?

Yeah, I realize this is a rhetorical question ...

[windansea]

36. I've seen pro Dean stuff in TPM..

can you cite any pro Clark stuff he's written??

Josh and other journalists will be looking into this

fucking with seniors is a serious boo boo

[stickdog]

41. No links? Why am I not surprised?

Marshall is a Clark supporter. Why try to deny the obvious?

[windansea]

45. prove it

you made the statement first that JM is supporting Clark

I read him daily and have seen no endorsement...he defends Dean in many pieces

[stickdog]

57. Will Pitt also has been known to defend Dean.

(November 18, 2003 -- 01:22 AM EDT // link // print)
After dinner this evening I stopped by a fundraiser for Howard Dean in Washington, DC --- one to celebrate his 55th birthday. It wasn’t the first time I’d seen him in person. But it was the first time I’d seen him speak to a campaign rally. And the event was very impressive.

...

In any case, after the speech, I wanted to ask Dean a few questions about Iraq and the recent turnabout in White House policy. But the place was raucous and crowded. And Dean was wielding this big metal utensil, cutting people pieces of his enormous birthday cake. So I eventually thought better of it.

I packed up my pen and notebook and slowly made my way to the door through the sardine-packed crowd of Dean-o-philes.


*****


If you can't read behind these gaping lines, you might as well argue that Faux News is fair and balanced.

[windansea]

74. "the event was very impressive"

not exactly a put down...anyway...I don't believe JM has endorsed anyone...I do know that he is pretty fair in assessing the race...and you will note that in his update he does not affix the blame for who's doing this...yet

it's getting looked into

[Crunchy Frog]

47. Actually, I do believe

that Josh has a preference for Clark. Not that that is any crime in my opinion.;)

[NashVegas]

70. TPM

I haven't seen anything blatantly pro-Dean. I've seen a few being fair on Dean, but far more Dean bashes.

[NashVegas]

71. Here You Go!

Note the contrast on how these two different, but similar, stories are handled:

(September 19, 2003 -- 09:12 PM EDT // link // print)
Is simplism the new integrity? I guess it is.

According to the prevailing chatter, Wes Clark has been waffling on his position on the war. CBS said as much: "Clark Waffles On War."

Frankly, I don't think I've ever heard anything quite so stupid. (snip)...

The truth is that Clark's position on the war is at least as consistent as any other candidate in this race.

===

In that story, he links to the CBS story and others that show the inconsistencies.

========
And one day later:

(September 20, 2003 -- 03:02 AM EDT // link // print)

Part of Howard Dean's political draw today seems to be the fact that he didn't allow himself to be fooled by arguments about Iraq's WMD. Thus this line Thursday at a speech to the Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce in New Hampshire ...

(snip)

But what about what Dean said on Face The Nation a couple weeks before the war resolution vote, when asked what the president would have to do to prove that there was an immediate threat justifying war ...

===

In the second story, Josh carries the quotes directly, the reader doesn't have to go elsewhere to chase down what was actually said.

TPB is one of the best - if not the best - left leaning blog out there. But Marshall can be as human as anyone else when it comes to picking favorites and slanting his work in their favor. I think he wanted to defend Clark in an "oh YEAH? Well look at THIS" kind of way.

[windansea]

83. maybe so

but I still haven't seen him endorse anyone yet

[mouse7]

9. I smell Hair Club for Growth and neo-cons

This is straight out of the Segretti/Rove Plumbers Playbook.

[Sean Reynolds]

11. Yup!

[Bolo Boffin]

16. Somebody's push-polling.

Somebody's lying to seniors about voting in the Democratic primary.

I agree that the ARG knows the name of the campaign that the calls claimed to come from, and the mention of the Dean switcheroo might be a hint about the claim.

But that doesn't mean the claim is true. This may be the ARG's way of remaining neutral on that question. It could easily be another Democratic candidate's campaign smearing Dean, or it could be a Rove dirty trick. I'd like to know if we can track down the calls.

Whoever's doing the push polling, though, is stepping over a line.

[Sean Reynolds]

20. I think it's a Rove trick!

[windansea]

22. send some emails

let NH papers know we want to know the truth

http://www.50states.com/news/vermont.htm

Addison County Independent
Barton Chronicle
Bennington Banner
Brattleboro Reformer
The Burlington Free Press
Business People Vermont
The Caledonian-Record
Deerfield Valley News
Harbor Watch
The Independent
Journal Opinion
The Mountain Times
News & Citizen
Rutland Herald
Saint Albans Messenger
Stowe Reporter
The Times Argus
Valley News
The Valley Reporter
Vermont Life
Vermont Sports
The World

[stickdog]

29. The evidence ARG supplies for their smear is the word of a single

self-identified senior -- hence Bennett's use of the pronoun "she."

A respondent discovered, however, that when she told the caller that she was thinking about voting for Howard Dean, the caller told her that she would be eligible to vote.

I look forward to the continued vain attempts of Clark and Kerry supporters to spin this sentence into something other than an obvious smear based on the flimsiest possible non-evidence.

[QC]

19. Of course Tripi would do this sort of thing.

Just look at what he did to the Cranston campaign in 1984.

This is not much different and no worse.

I don't necessarily think Howie would cheat, but I know his manager does.

[Sean Reynolds]

21. So because he did something in '84, he must be doin it now?

By that means I guess Clark is running as a Republican, since he was VOTING Republican in '84! ;-)

[QC]

59. Clark voted Democratic in '92, '96, and 2000.

What evidence do we have that Joe Trippi has changed his ways?

If you have it I would love to see it--would make me feel much more comfortable.

[Sean Reynolds]

85. What evidence do you have that he hasn't?

I'd love to see it.

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Sean Reynolds]

25. But it's fun!

If they bring up the past, so can we! :)

[QC]

32. Please feel free to ignore me.

I'll keep me from feeling that I have to reply to you.

ON EDIT: But it's not baseless: Both Trippi and his old boss Beckel have admitted it. They even chuckle over their cheating, so I can't quite see why you're calling me a liar here.

If they're not ashamed, why should you be?

[stickdog]

31. And Rove & Lehane wouldn't? (nt)

[mouse7]

49. You mean the straw poll Cranstron was trying to buy

Cranston was trying to buy the straw poll through buying up all the tickets and busing in supporters.

[Crunchy Frog]

52. No! Trippi would never

do that sort of thing. He's as pure as driven snow. As innocent as a newborn babe. Only Karl Rove would ever be involved in anything underhanded in politics. You should know that. Everything in Dean's campaign that is less than honerable should be automatically ascribed to Karl Rove. At least until the Dean campaign admits it, then we can all agree that there was nothing underhanded in it at all.

You should know by now that that's how it works.:P

[windansea]

26. SEND EMAILS

let NH papers know we want to know the truth

http://www.50states.com/news/vermont.htm

Addison County Independent
Barton Chronicle
Bennington Banner
Brattleboro Reformer
The Burlington Free Press
Business People Vermont
The Caledonian-Record
Deerfield Valley News
Harbor Watch
The Independent
Journal Opinion
The Mountain Times
News & Citizen
Rutland Herald
Saint Albans Messenger
Stowe Reporter
The Times Argus
Valley News
The Valley Reporter
Vermont Life
Vermont Sports
The World

[Sean Reynolds]

27. Wait until we know who is doing it before we send out mail.

[windansea]

28. ALREADY SENT THEM

asking the papers to look into this

[Sean Reynolds]

30. Well good.

No need to shout.

[in_cog_ni_to]

33. THAT'S how we will find out who did this........

we'll just let the media dig into it. They're hungry for some fresh meat.

[Sean Reynolds]

34. But can we trust the media?

I've lost ALL respect for them with their out of context quotes of Dean and the 'Iowa' cacaus.

[janx]

67. Of course we can't. They're freaking out at this election.

Careers are on the line. They have no idea what's going on and are spinning like mad. They also know that Dean wants to knock down the big media conglomerates. That doesn't sit well with them.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

78. Cognitive Dissonance alert here.....

n/t

[JVS]

37. Oh yes, the media never lies or does anything unethical

:eyes:

[stickdog]

38. Which country's media are we discussing here? How many decent US

investigative reporters can you name?

When was the last time a major US paper uncovered the truth or waited to uncover the truth before printing a spurious accusation?

All they do is print or broadcast what somebody else said or reported and (if we're lucky) the response to this.

[windansea]

42. lets see...according to Dean supporters

there's Molly, Arianna, at least a couple more

[Sean Reynolds]

43. A few out of thousands.

Good ratio, eh?

[stickdog]

46. They are columnists, not reporters.

You know what I'm saying is true because the corporate press's response to Bush's term has proved my point beyond a doubt.

So why the transparent sophistry?

[windansea]

53. later

bedtime...Oh...about that anti Kerry graphic you're sporting

it's kind of offensive and rude to kerry supporters

isn't that against the rules here?

how would you like me to use this little gem in my sig line?

[stickdog]

58. Typical. Mine is a humorous take on Kerry's campaign for the Dem

nomination.

Yours equates everyone who questions Bush with "mad cows."

Why am I not surprised?

[windansea]

75. humor is in the eye of the beholder

I'm glad you took that graphic off your sig line

:thumbsup:

[stickdog]

80. And Bush enabling is in the eye of the be whore Dem. (mt)

[windansea]

82. yeah we know

all Dems that do not bow down to Howard are whores and bush enablers

or maybe some of us actually want to run a candidate that has a chance of winning

Howard Dean
Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of No opinion
2004 Jan 2-5 28 39 17 16

Wesley Clark
Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of No opinion
2004 Jan 2-5 37 26 21 16
http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2004-01-06-poll.htm

[Cheswick2.0]

62. whispurr is that you?

I think I know you from AOL.

[windansea]

76. I don't use AOL

it sucks...and you don't know me

[stickdog]

35. Exactly! If we send enough emails, they'll simply print the unsupported

innuendo "as reported by somebody else" since that's what passes for journalism today!

Whoo hooo! We too can help broadcast unsupported smears, just like ARG and Josh Marshall!!!

[windansea]

39. LOL

:cry:

[Sean Reynolds]

40. You'll be crying when Dean wins the nomination.

And I'll be :bounce: and :party:

[hellhathnofury]

51. Does this man have access to a phone?

[Sean Reynolds]

54. Ugh.

Horrible photo!

Nothing 'happy' about it!

[hellhathnofury]

55. Hell spawn.

[slinkerwink]

56. Son of the EVIL bastard himself.

[stickdog]

60. ARG's president predicted Clark's rise a long time ago.

December 13th, 2002

As Kerry's fortunes have faded in New Hampshire, Clark's have grown. Clark could eclipse Kerry here, Manchester, N.H.-based pollster Richard Bennett says.

"It's going to get down to Dean and somebody else," Bennett says, adding that at some point Democrats may realize that Dean could be the next George McGovern, the anti-Vietnam War candidate who was trounced by President Nixon in 1972, capturing only Massachusetts and the District of Columbia.

"I see here, and in South Carolina, that next to Dean, they like Clark best," Bennett says.


Wasn't Kerry ahead of Clark in NH on December 13th?

I mean, ARG's OWN POLL in December 17th, had Kerry at 20% and Clark at 8%. In Kerry's worst ARG showing vs. Clark since Clark joined the poll (December 3rd), he was still 2% points ahead of the General. So why did Bennett say that NH liked Clark second best on 12/13?


Another interesting fact is that Dick Gephardt's NH campaign shares the same 814 Elm, Manchester as Dick Bennett's American Resaerch Group:

http://www.nhdp.org/pres.htm

[bitchkitty]

64. Good catch!

The same address as Gebby, imagine that!

[maddezmom]

66. hmmm, interesting find

[windansea]

84. LOL

it's a conspiracy!!

[jumptheshadow]

63. We shouldn't jump to any conclusions

The phone calls could have been made by anybody, representing anybody's interests.

At this point, we shouldn't conclude that the Dean campaign is behind it. However, I would strongly urge any of you who are interested in electoral ethics to write the newspapers and the wire services and ask them to look into this.

If it is proven that 1) This was a well-funded, concerted effort, and, 2) That any campaign on either side of the political aisle was behind it, then please help protect the enfranchisement rights of this country's senior citizens by taking strong action.

Possible actions might include: 1) Picketing the responsible party's offices; 2) Inviting local media to cover the picketing; 3) Telling everybody you know to call the responsible party's representatives as well as your own local representatives to complain, and, 4) Organizing an Internet campaign to protect the enfranchisement rights of seniors and to call the supporters of any candidate on the carpet if they refer to seniors in a disrespectful manner.

On edit: Supporters of all campaigns should be put on notice that denigrating and disenfranchising seniors reaps substantial electoral consequences. Politicians of all stripes need to pay attention as well. Remember those tens of millions of baby boomers? Most of them are over 50 now. If you are a politician running for office or are endorsing anybody running for office you better be sensitive to the issues of older Americans.

[KaraokeKarlton]

68. Dean is doing extremely well with Independents

He's doing far better with NH Independents than any of the others. So why on earth would his campaign tell anyone from that group of voters that they can't vote? Personally, because Dean is doing so well with Independents I would guess that if any campaign is doing this it would have to be one trying to block a Dean win. The two most likely campaigns who would stand to gain from that would be Kerry's and Clark's.

I personally know the staff of the Dean campaign in my area. They actively puruse the Independent votes when phone banking. They encourage people to vote and tell them why they should support Dean. I've been in the office when the phone banking is done, so I don't believe this article for a second.

[TexasSissy]

69. It looks like just a fact reporting paragraph to me.

Sounds like maybe you just don't like the facts.

This is a very big ethical story and noteworthy that they printed it. They would've printed it regardless of which candidate had been implicated.

I believe it. A couple of Dean's supporters actually went into Kerry's campaign offices and posed as general public voters, for gosh sakes. To his campaign staffers' credit, they fired the volunteers from the campaign.

Still, the facts of this story match other unethical story or stories about some of Dean's supporters. It doesn't mean that Dean ordered that it be done or that he was involved.

[democratreformed]

73. Just the facts is right.

I think it was explained in some other reporting on this issue that ARG decided to put the paragraph in there to clarify that their polls may have been affected by what was going on.

[John_H]

72. This PROVES one of two things

If it's Rove it proves he wants to run against Dean.

If it's Dean he's running a dirty chimp-like campaign and deserves no Democrat's support.

[windansea]

79. actually maybe not

if Rove wants Dean why would he mess with the frontrunner

also since Dean just fired 2 paid staffers for hijinks in Iowa it wouldn't surprise me if this crap is linked to Dean

Dean scares seniors so I could see why they might try to dampen their vote....we'll see

[stickdog]

81. Your post proves one of one thing.

You can't see the forest for the trees.

[arewethereyet]

86. OK dirty tricks in multiple states, central organization folks. guilty

but what else would you expect from someone known for lack of control ?

[stickdog]

88. What? (nt)

[Capn Sunshine]

87. ARG is interesting

basically a for-hire " we get you the results you need" polling firm.
So someone paid for this I don't know who.

Principals are notable for creating the " Predatory Marketing " mindset via a book by the same name.

About this survey:

Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.

The New Hampshire Poll has been conducting surveys of voters in New Hampshire since 1976.

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of registered Democrats and undeclared voters in New Hampshire saying they will definitely vote in the Democratic primary election on January 27. This sample included 430 registered Democrats (70%) and 170 undeclared voters (28%).

[windansea]

89. errr..ARG is doing the NH tracking polls

you no..the one's Dean supporters always quote about how big their lead is...now ARG is bad???

Just about every polling company performs polls for others for money

:eyes:

[lib 4 all]

90. this is just another disturbing develpment out of ARG

more on this in a bit

[stickdog]

91. OK, folks. So where's the rest of this story, as promised? (nt)