My prediction on poll numbers post debate: not much change now....

[NewYorkerfromMass]

but later we will see more support for Kerry.
The reason is that Kerry's solid performance has made it possible for undecideds and even "weak Bush" voters to later switch to Kerry.
The favorables (and other intangibles) for Kerry went way up, and while no commitment is immediate, it has laid the groundwork for a big shift later.

This is the kind of plus that people take into the voting booth- it crushed a lot of doubts, and I'm saying we may not see the payoff until election day.

[Village Idiot]

1. Most Pollsters

did their interviewing before the debate, for some odd reason...perhaps we'll see better numbers in a couple of days?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. No. I'm saying the payoff is further down the road.

Not even next week will we see much change in the polls, but in the end, Kerry sold himself well as a SOLID, Presidential candidate.
People will be MUCH more comfortable voting for him now.
He won over favorable impressions of more than half the viewers.
Even Bush supporters acknowledge he was impressive.

IOW: His support is firming up, and opponents see less reasons to discredit him in.

[MallRat]

3. It'll take a few days to sink in....

...but as far as I can tell, anyone who isn't watching CNN or FOX is getting a pretty accurate analysis of what happened.

After a few days of the "Kerry comes big" and "Kerry the Closer" storylines, the numbers will start to move.

-MR

[xyboymil]

4. Joe Scarborough..a hard core rw'er and Bush supporter admitted Bush lost .

handidly last night. And I have to give him credit for calling a pink elephant a pink elephant..so to speak!

He said polls coming out around Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday will begin to tell the tail of how much impact Kerry had. Moreover then the overall numbers, you will need to look at the inside data:

I.E.: Who do you trust more to handle the war in Iraq?

Who do you trust on natl defense?

Who is a better leader?

If those numbers which currently favor Bush begin to shrink, Bush is in serious trouble. Because on health care, the economy, and Medicare/Social security Kerry is already out in front.

YA! Looking good inst it? :toast:

[NoBorders]

5. he presented a solid alternative to bush*

the biggest problem Kerry had with weak bush voters or undecideds is that they weren't sure kerry was a good alternative. He proved that he is, and hopefully that will show up in the polls. He didn't need to knock bush out, he just needed to provide a credible alternative. I think he did that.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. I'm saying it may not show up in the polls even next week.

The underlying attitude will be that Kerry is an acceptable (and later- desireable) alternative to Bush.
I've edited the original post to reflect that.