Kerry is still the underdog ....

[annxburns]

I was very happy with Kerry's performance too. But I agree with Joe Conason of Salon when he warns about getting too cocky.

Kerry is off to a good start on the debates but he has not won them yet. I would not underestimate Bush either. I talked to my one republican-leaning friend yesterday and she is still strongly supporting Bush even after she watched the debate. Bush can fake empathy with the best of them and uses that to great effect.

I think the DNC should tone down now on how "Kerry won the debate". Kerry's campaign is actually handling it much better by declaring a "gloat-free" zone. Starting this weekend they should immediately start spinning on how they expect Bush to come back strong in the next debate. They (not Rove) should point out that Gore won the first debate but Bush came back strong in the subsequent debates, blah, blah, blah. They still need to LOWER expectations for Kerry like they did this time. And Kerry cannot relax even for one minute. The corporate media is still far to beholden to the RW smear and spin machine. Kerry has to make the utmost out of EVERY opportunity to talk directly to the American people.

Just MHO and unsolicited campaign advice. (Again)

[cheshire]

1. I don't thind anyone here is so stupid and we deserve a day of joy

Why is it some smart ass always has to piss on the parade.

[annxburns]

2. You don't need to insult me ...

I was talking about the campaign, not you or DU. Celebrating is fine - I just think tactically it would be better for Kerry's campaign to continue to do what they are doing. Hammering bush and lowering expectations for the debates. The media wants to write the "Bush comes roaring back" story.

[cheshire]

4. So you can assume your smarter but I can't call you a smart ass? I don't

see how I insult you is worse than assuming all of us are stupid. I don't consider smart ass as an insult. I do think assuming I'm to stupid to see what you do as an insult.

[annxburns]

5. I am not assuming you or anyone else is stupid (?*$(&%!!)

Again I was talking about how I think the campaign should go. Several others on DU have posted similiar comments and threads like this. I'm sorry if you took my comments personally. I didn't mean to insult anyone - just have a discussion.

[cheshire]

9. Nice language and I still think pointing this out is assuming no one sees

things as clearly as you, including Kerry. I will refrain from the true insult of name calling in code. You should they should is saying you know better than anyone.

[TheWebHead]

3. agreed

we haven't even seen any election polls since the debate and won't until Sunday and Monday... as much as some of these corporate polls overweight republicans, they still set the media's agenda and control popular thought. You have to assume Bush will maintain his lead, though I'd think it would narrow on the average.

And we again have to build up Bush as a master debater again. He's never lost a series of debates, he was tired on Thursday night, he has "street smarts", etc... otherwise he'll benefit from lowered expectations.

[JI7]

6. the big media is looking for any way to make Bush out to be a winner

bush sucked so bad yesterday that it was pretty much impossible for them to even try to say he won. so at best many of them tried anything they could to say that it was a tie. and some of them went on to say it doesn't matter if kerry did win. even though before the debates they had been going on about how it's over for kerry unless he can win this and how the topic of that debate was bush's strong points.

[annxburns]

7. I was so frustrated with the media in 2000

and they are 100 times worse now. It makes me so angry. When Kerry wins on Nov 2nd it will be almost hard for me to say which victory is sweeter - Kerry beating Bush or beating the media.

[grace0418]

8. But didn't we learn from the Gore/Bush debates

that we have to control the spin as much as possible? If we don't take the trophy so rightfully earned by future President Kerry, Dumbya will claim it as his whether he deserves it or not.

[annxburns]

11. I get your point but

I think you can grab the trophy of the first debate win and still lower expectations for the next go round.

I just think they managed the first debate really really well. I saw a poll that said most people expected Bush to win the debate - and I think that made Kerry's poise and thoughtful answers really shine.

And Bush does NOT respond well to pressure.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. A small underdog, similar to a 4 point underdog in football

That's a 2-1 underdog man to man, almost nothing. For reference purposes, that's only slightly higher than Bush's odds on election day 2000, and we know how that should have turned out.

I believe Kerry's surge will be greater than expected, in polls and general support, based on the 19 people who filled my living room last night to watch the debate. A decisive debate victory is always underestimated by pundits just like the bounce out of the second convention. Bush's supposed 6-8 point lead is garbage, and the more likely 3-4 point margin includes some very soft support at the top, earned with the jingoistic nonsense at the end of his convention speech. His performance and behavior likely forfeited most of that, if not all. As I pointed out a few days ago, the undecideds include 2-3 points more women than men, and women will inevitably trend toward Kerry based on the debates. The women at my home preferred Kerry 7-1 last night.

Still, even if it's tied in the polls Kerry is still a minor underdog versus an incumbent. The administration can lauch a major attack on Iraqi insurgents on election eve, or any number of other possible advantages. They still haven't used that ridicuous picture of Kerry in the sperm suit from this summer.

There are three full weeks between the final debate and election day, significant advantage for an incumbent. I can't believe Kerry agreed to that schedule. Kerry desperately needs his daily campaigning and commercials to match the level of his debate skills.

[annxburns]

12. My nervousness with Bush being the incumbent

is so high because I truly believe these jerks would do anything to win - even if it ended up seriously damaging our country. They are the original "the end justifies the means" gang. They have proven that over and over from the very moment Bush got selected.

[ProudDad]

13. I keep hearing this so a clarification is in order

GORE WON!!!!

Right, Gore won the first debate in 2000 and he F*ckin' WON the election TOO. The election of 2000 was stolen by the shrub with the connivance of the dems.

Kerry's not going to change the mind of any repubs that love that bastard, it's a waste of time to try...

He's after the "undecideds", rightly so.

And we've got to keep our eyes on the thieves who are poised to steal this election too.

[secular_warrior]

14. STRONGLY AGREE

The most ruthless, despicable political outfit of this generation will NOT go down without an extremely difficult fight.

And what worries me is Kerry tends to go to sleep when he gets the lead (if we have the lead now). Against Dean, Kerry came back so late that it didn't allow Dean to recover. Bush has plenty of time to recover.

Kerry has to stick the knife in... again and again as if Bush were Freddie Krueger. Even if it looks dead (and it doesn't yet) we have to keep pounding.

[fujiyama]

15. I agree

Kerry said it best. We need to win EVERY DAY FOR THE NEXT MONTH!

The only victory is watching those projections come up on TV with the announcement "We project John Kerry to be the winner of the state of X , which puts him over the total electoral votes needed to become the next president of the United State".

Hell, even that won't be enough. Until those neocon ass holes leave the WH premises, this hasn't been won. Until that happens, we haven't won shit. And Kerry knows this better than anyone.