Dem Pollster: sees Dean losing to Bush 53 percent to 39 percent

[kerry-is-my-prez]

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/whispers/whisphome.htm

His recommendation: Woo "persuadables," or independent voters looking for move vision and less antiwar talk.

Bush win, place, show
Howard Dean may be racing to the front of the pack campaigning to face President Bush in the fall, but winning the nomination could be the high point for the ex-Vermont governor, according to Democratic pollster Peter Hart. His latest calculations suggest Dean losing to Bush 53 percent to 39 percent. Worse, Bush right now is unusually strong in virtually all critical categories. He beats Dean by 22 percent among male voters, 3 percent among women voters, and 10 percent among independents. What's more, Bush wins all age groups. He bests Dean by 3 percent among voters 35 and younger and by 15 percent with those over 35. And, adds Hart, no other candidate would do any better. Dean, he says, "is doing as well as anybody."


However, one factor that Bedard does not take into account: Clark is still a very unknown quantity to voters. The more the public sees of him and gets to know him - the higher his numbers climb.

[Hep]

1. Clowning and the clowns who clown

When will the left stop being suckers, dupes for the media?

[kerry-is-my-prez]

2. Cognitive Dissonance alert..... This is a Dem POLLSTER not the media

keep telling yourself that though.....

[Hep]

6. The DEM POLLSTER sent you an email?

This story and all pontifications therein are from THE MEDIA. They are using this DEM POLLSTER as the SOURCE of their info, the backup for their assertions.

I tell myself the truth. But then, I don't bow to the will of the clowns.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

9. Huh????

n/t

[Hep]

22. What's not to understand?

You posted an article from usnews. That's not the media?

[Rose Siding]

3. GOP pollster sees Bush losing to Dean

See chart and breakdown at link-

http://www.moore-info.com/Poll_Updates/2004%20Election%20%20Why%20Dean%20can%20win%20Sept%2003.htm

[kerry-is-my-prez]

7. Hope they're right. That was back in Sept pre-gaffes though.

We cannot afford to hide our heads in the sand. Never get cocky....

[blm]

4. Dean is the only candidate everyone HEARS about from the media.

If Kerry had Dean's media time he'd be killing Bush in a matchup.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

11. Yep. So would Clark, Edwards and even Gephardt

n/t

[blm]

14. Quite likely.

.

[dfong63]

23. if Kerry got the media Dean's media coverage, Kerry would have

... had to drop out by now.

[Davis_X_Machina]

5. Why do we spend a fortune on a nominating process...

...when there are so many people who will take the job off our hands for free?

[poskonig]

8. This is Democrats in the *present*, of course.

Given Gore was down by similar margins last election, Democrats don't have much to worry about.

[farmbo]

10. This should not be a Dean headline: nobody beats Bush...

And, adds Hart, no other candidate would do any better. Dean, he says, "is doing as well as anybody."

[kerry-is-my-prez]

13. But Dean is the only one who has gotten coverage. The rest haven't...

n/t

[farmbo]

15. Dean's got coverage allright...unflattering coverage...

Clark's flying under the radar screen for now.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

17. They've been kissing Dean's butt for a year until now. Others: no coverage

Getting NO coverage is even worse than negative coverage.

[Oreegone]

12. Time for a:

Chicken Liberal Alert......the sky is falling...

Alert, Alert

adds Hart, no other candidate would do any better. Dean, he says, "is doing as well as anybody."

[w4rma]

16. Bush team considers Dean formidable GOP admit they underestimated Dean

How Dean Could Win . . .

By William Kristol
Tuesday, December 9, 2003; Page A27
…
Thus, on domestic policy, Dean will characterize Bush as the deficit-expanding, Social Security-threatening, Constitution-amending (on marriage) radical, while positioning himself as a hard-headed, budget-balancing, federalism-respecting compassionate moderate. And on foreign and defense policy, look for Dean to say that he was and remains anti-Iraq war (as, he will point out, were lots of traditional centrist foreign policy types). But Dean will emphasize that he has never ruled out the use of force (including unilaterally). Indeed, he will say, he believes in military strength so strongly that he thinks we should increase the size of the Army by a division or two. It's Bush, Dean will point out, who's trying to deal with the new, post-Sept. 11 world with a pre-Sept. 11 military.
…
The writer is editor of the Weekly Standard.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A47806-2003Dec8
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=103&topic_id=24883

TO: Moore Information Clients & Friends

FROM: Hans Kaiser & Bob Moore

RE: Election 2004: Why Dean Can Win, September 2003

A recent article by David Brooks left readers with the distinct impression that Republican pollsters are all of the opinion that Howard Dean cannot possibly beat George Bush. We regret that he didn’t check with us first, as it is our belief that Dean has the potential to be a formidable candidate who could give the President a very difficult race.

The conventional wisdom that has some Republicans giddy about a potential Dean candidacy is not only misguided, it is counterproductive. Writing off a candidate like Dean by selectively sorting statistical gobble-de-gook and mixing it into a broth of “empirical” sociological evidence ignores the political realities of our time.
…
The difference between Howard Dean and the rest of the Democrat candidates is that Dean comes across as a true believer to the base but he will not appear threatening to folks in the middle. More than any other candidate in the field, he will be able to present himself as one who cares about people (doctor), who balances budgets (governor), and who appears well grounded while looking presidential. To be sure, he doesn’t look that way to the GOP base, but that has no bearing on the election, because they will never vote for him anyway. He can appeal to the middle and Republicans can ignore his candidacy at our peril. We are whistling past the graveyard if we think Howard Dean will be a pushover.

Howard Dean’s appeal is closer to Ronald Reagan’s than any other Democrat running today. Granted, that’s not saying much with this field, but there are similarities here. The Democrat party used to chuckle about Reagan and his gaffes which they believed would marginalize him to the far right dustbin of history. But when his opponents tried to attack him for some of his more outlandish statements, the folks in the middle simply ignored them. Voters in the middle looked to the bigger picture where they saw a man of conviction who cared about them and had solutions for their problems. Howard Dean has the potential to offer a similar type candidacy.
…
http://www.moore-info.com/Poll_Updates/2004%20Election%20%20Why%20Dean%20can%20win%20Sept%2003.htm
http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/david_reinhard/index.ssf?/base/editorial/106829671744920.xml
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=709103

Bush team considers Dean formidable Republicans admit they underestimated Dem candidate

By Judy Keen
USA TODAY

WASHINGTON -- Republican Party officials and political advisers to President Bush admit that they underestimated Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean and say they now consider him a formidable potential adversary.

Some Bush allies say he reminds them of another insurgent candidate who once bedeviled Bush: Arizona Sen. John McCain. His wins in Republican primary elections in New Hampshire and Michigan rattled Bush's 2000 campaign.

''There is something going on there, and I tell you, if we don't pay attention . . . we're making a big mistake,'' says Tom Rath, a Republican strategist and Bush adviser in New Hampshire.
…
http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20030908/5477666s.htm
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=103020

[lovedems]

18. I won't believe any presidential polls until this campaign gets on

the national level. I live in Illinois and we hear very little about the candidates. When this campaign gets on the national level, then I will believe the national poll.

Also, there are some pretty damning stories beginning to surface about the administration. Wait until they gain some steam.

[Jack Rabbit]

19. Actually, this isn't just about Dean v. Bush

The truth is that none of the Democratic candidates are particularly well-known to the public at large. That includes Dean as well as Clark. The great danger of that is that it will allow a given candidate's opponents, either the other Democratic candidate or Mr. Bush and his people, to define him negatively.

Consequently, any Democrats would lose to Bush by about 53 to 39 at this time. This information says nothing about one candidate's relative chances to defeat Bush as opposed to another's.

There needs to be less infighting by potential nominees and more talk about the necessity of defeating Bush. Each candidate needs to do more to define himself. Each candidate may need a little space to do that. Right now, each candidate is doing his damnedest to prevent every other candidate from getting that space.

Perhaps this will improve after the field thins out following the early primaries. Meanwhile, Karl Rove must be loving it.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

20. New poll: Clark doing best vs. Bush. Now that voters getting to know him

AP-Ipsos poll Jan. 5-7: Bush Wins; Clark Best Head to Head


Edited on Fri Jan-09-04 11:21 AM by Jerseycoa
Wesley Clark by 49-42 (by 7)
Howard Dean by 54-39 (by 15)
John Kerry by 54-37 (by 17)
Dick Gephardt by 56-35 (by 21)

[stickdog]

21. Strategically forgotten part of the article.

And, adds Hart, no other candidate would do any better. Dean, he says, "is doing as well as anybody."

Why did you leave this part out?

[Skinner]

24. I don't think this headline is fair.

It does not accurately reflect the content of the post, which includes this gem:

And, adds Hart, no other candidate would do any better. Dean, he says, "is doing as well as anybody."

I'm locking.

Skinner
DU Admin