Newest Iowa Poll: Dean 30, Gep 23, Kerry 18, Edwards 11

[stickdog]

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll11jan11,1,3764349.story?coll=la-home-headlines

This poll is GREAT NEWS for DEAN!!! And it was taken BEFORE the Harkin endorsement!

But note how the LA Times spins their own numbers:

Dean Ahead But Iowa Is Up For Grabs

Although he topped the Democratic field with 30% support, many surveyed say they could change their minds ahead of the caucus.

WASHINGTON — Howard Dean has established a narrow advantage in the Iowa caucuses by amassing a solid lead among upscale voters while cutting into Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt's support among blue-collar and union families, a new Times Poll found.

Barely a week before the Jan. 19 voting, Dean led Gephardt 30% to 23%, a difference just within the poll's margin of error. Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry, with 18%, remained within reach of Gephardt, while North Carolina Sen. John Edwards attracted 11%.

The survey also showed likely caucus voters were surprisingly fluid in their commitments to the candidates, even after months of intensive campaigning. About 1 in 11 said they remain undecided in the race. More significantly, nearly 40% who express a preference say they could still switch before the caucuses.


Consider:

1) The voters who currently support Dean are almost certainly far less "fluid" than those who support other candidates.

2) The poll was taken before the Harkin announcement.

3) Gore is actively campaigning for Dean in Iowa.

So why isn't this article trumpeting this poll as the augur of a huge Dean victory in Iowa? Can anybody take a stab at explaining the obvious anti-Dean spin on this obviously pro-Dean news?

[quaker bill]

1. This has always been a close race

But Dean suddenly seems to be opening up a more substantial lead. The Harkin endorsement will only add to this.

It looks more and more like he will take Iowa and probably get a bit of a bounce from it to expand his considerable lead in NH.

Dean has the money and volunteers to capitalize on this outcome across the country in a way that only Clark can come close to matching.

[tedoll78]

4. You are correct.

And the last polls I saw were showing Dean either on top in South Carolina or in the pack at the top. If he gets a bounce from IA/NH in SC, he may well run away with it.

Some wonder if Edwards will still be in on Feb 3rd, and I'm betting he will. South Carolina is his own back yard! He should divide the "Look - a Southerner!" Vote. I'm also betting that Lieberman will take a conservative piece of that voting pie.

[Demobrat]

2. If they call it for Dean now

what will they talk about between now and the caucus?

[JVS]

3. Stickdog, go make sure that your comic is ok with the new sig rules.

I'd hate to see anything happen to you.

[dnbmathguy]

5. The caucus is still 9 days away

That's still a lot of time. Why call the race for Dean now?

Plus this race is a lot closer than the polls suggest.