Early Indications of a Kerry Debate Bounce

[jefferson_dem]

This from Teagan Goddard's Political Wire - http://politicalwire.com/

Survey USA polled in 35 separate geographies in the 18 hours following the first presidential debate between George W. Bush and John Kerry to see who people thought won.

The results:
In 26 geographies, John Kerry won.
In 8 geographies, George W. Bush won.
In 1 geography, the debate was an exact tie.

"Those who watched the entire debate were also asked if they would change their vote as a result of seeing the debate. Though the number of debate watchers who said they would change their vote is small -- typically between 13% and 22% of debate watchers -- in every geography, the number of 'switchers' who said they would now vote for Kerry was greater than the number of 'switchers' who said they would now vote for Bush."

SURVEY USA PDF HERE - http://surveyusa.com/Scorecards/PrezDebate093004WinnerLoserByRegion.pdf


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ALSO, Democracy Corps (D) had pre-post debate polls in the field. Numbers indicate small but *significant* gains for Kerry across the board, especially with regards to Iraq and war on terror.

PDF HERE - http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/surveys/Democracy_Corps_September_30_2004_1st_Debate_Survey.pdf

[Sparkly]

1. I think it will make a difference!

"Conventional wisdom" says debates rarely provide more than a couple of points' bounce.

But Kerry wasn't just good, he was REALLY good. And Chimp wasn't just bad, he was reEEEEEEEEEEEEally bad!!

I think that debate showed such an astonishing contrast, it'll make an unconventional bounce. That's just my unscientific opinion, though.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

4. I think there are a lot of folks out there

who felt that Bush was bad, but just weren't sure about Kerry. The debate, I feel, put many, if not all, their fears to rest. If they even watched part of the debate, they realized that Kerry can do the job, and do it well.

[Skinner]

2. Nice.

Thanks for posting this. :thumbsup:

[tedoll78]

3. Yup.

Those results are incredible. And the viewership in the swing states was really, really disproportionate from the viewership in the solid states.

Most candidates decide to fight by accentuating their positives. Kerry took his alleged weakness and brought it up to at least neutral in the eyes of the voters. He more than survive in this round.. he's given himself a boost.

[girl gone mad]

5. Though it's nice to hear,

I wouldn't count on any change in polling numbers.

I think we'd be setting ourselves up for disappointment, and perhaps a loss of some momentum if we did, especially considering the partisan nature or many of the pollsters.

[undercover_brother]

7. bingo

don't bank on a solid bounce which lasts a month out from the election. Kerry did very well in this first debate but we still have a long ways to go.

[girl gone mad]

13. Hi undercover brother.

Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[democracy eh]

6. at a minimum

JK's favorability has to improve (is not Shrub's dropping)

The public's confidence in JK to handle terrorism, security and foriegn policy must have improved to at least tie Shrub

[jefferson_dem]

8. YUP. Significant gains indeed!

Democracy Corps (D) had pre-post debate polls in the field. Numbers indicate small but *significant* gains for Kerry across the board, especially with regards to Iraq and war on terror.

PDF HERE - http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/surveys/Democracy...

[Deja Q]

9. If Kerry can swipe Bushit at foreign policy, he will puree * on domesitc

issues!

[MallRat]

10. Yup. Watch the poll numbers over the next few days.

Instant, positive impressions after a debate don't translate into real gains until a few days after. Genuinely undecided voters have to digest what they've just seen... of course, aided by a barrage of round-the-clock spin.

So far, it seems to me that except for CNN and Fox, Bush isn't winning the spin war. The impression of Kerry as strong, principled leader is being cemented in a lot of minds right now.

-MR

[mconvente]

11. some numbers are very telling

Kerry picks up 11% on Iraq. That is a complete success for Kerry. He also picks up 10+ on provides clear plans, something undecideds were wavering on. This is great!

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

12. Survey USA is about the least reliable and least scientific

so it's good the Democracy Corp site shows a similar though lesser result.