Time - A Race Is What We've Now

[rndmprsn]

http://www.time.com/time/election2004/columnist/klein/article/0,18471,708927,00.html

...The President came armed only with the brilliantly succinct paragraph he uses on the stump to defend the war: The world is better off without Saddam, progress is being made, Kerry is a flip-flopper who sends mixed signals. It usually takes Bush no more than two or three minutes to deliver these lines to tumultuous applause. But he had 45 minutes to fill last Thursday, and there was no applause. Simple truths became simplistic evasions. He used "mixed signals" or "mixed messages" eight times. Having been carefully sheltered throughout his presidency from the press and from voters who disagree with him, Bush seemed ill-prepared for disagreement. The most stunning moment came when Kerry closed a tough exchange about how to fix Iraq by saying the difference is, "I have a plan to do it. He doesn't." Bush, out-simpled, allowed the exchange to end there.

...But last week Bush came up against the limits of spin, and now he faces a daunting gauntlet. The next two presidential debates will take place within a week, and Bush finds himself in a situation similar to Gore's four years ago. The President will have to be conscious of his body language next time, which could distract him from the thrust and parry of the contest. Gore's second debate, in which his disdainful sighs were successfully squelched, was a bland calamity. Bush has to find a dignified way to regain the offensive, which will not be easy as the topic shifts to the domestic policy issues that are not his forte. His argument that Kerry is weak and wavering will be harder to make. The challenger seemed quite strong in the first debate, more in command than the Commander in Chief.

[secular_warrior]

1. Kerry must put Bush away with the next debate

Kerry has a huge upper hand going into the next debate. Democrats always have the advantage on domestic issues. Kerry's aim must not be to simply do better than Bush, but to demolish him and pull ahead for good. An incumbent president cannot lose two of three debates, and especially not all three, and especially not in the way Bush lost the first one. Kerry must go for the throat before Bush has a chance to recover.

[rndmprsn]

3. Agreed...finish the job

that he started tuesday with a knock out punch against shrub...the emperor's armor has been breached...kerry needs to follow it up with a devastating blow.

[Guaranteed]

5. Absolutely...and blows

will look a lot more devastating with low expectations.

[secular_warrior]

15. that's nearly impossible

We need to try to talk up that "Bush is good in town hall type of settings", and to try to paint a comeback scenario for Bush, but Kerry beat Bush so bad in the first debate I just don't see how the expectations can be lowered much further than that for Kerry without sounding like a fake argument.

I think it's better to try to increase the pressure on Bush by talking it up as a "must win for the President after such a humiliating performance". Bush cannot deal with pressure.

[Bleacher Creature]

9. Maybe not

It would be great if he finished him off next week, but don't forget two things. First, it is on a Friday night and is directly in competition with playoff baseball.

Second, the final debate is the one that focuses on domestic issues. There is basically NOTHING that Bush could do or say that allow him to convince people that he's done a good job. NOTHING. Even if he corrects all of the body language/delivery problems (and good luck with that) he's got NOTHING. All he can do is try and convince people that everything is going great -- and he can ask his dad how that worked out.

I'm not saying that Kerry won't do it the next time -- just don't allow yourselves too stressed out over #2.

[secular_warrior]

11. Thanks - that's right - the next one is St. Louis town hall

Kerry still has to score a win. Then Bush would be up against tremendous odds in the third debate, and the press would be painting a gloom and doom scenario for his presidency.

[KittyWampus]

14. Town Hall Debate Allows Kerry To Use More "One-Liners"

while he's presenting his facts & policies.

These will make the news and take over coverage.

Bank on it. Kerry will not only out-simple Bush once again while looking more Presidential... he will have some GREAT soundbites that will live on during the rest of the election cycle.

[My Pet Goat]

2. I love it !

"Out-simple" Bush. Sad but true. Over-simplify an issue until it becomes an intellectual game rather than a gut reaction appeal to the shallow. Bush becomes speechless.

[missouri dem]

4. Rove has tried to project w as a tough daddy

but he came across as a whiny baby.

[Riptide]

6. I honestly don't think Bush can keep himself from sneering...

The only thing he can do is sneer and smirk. If Kerry pisses him off by daring to question his divine decisions, he will have to sneer. I don't believe it is in his control.

KKKarl can work with him day and night, but Shrub has been so protected from any criticism that he literally can not take it. Plus, I don't think bush has the brain power to think about controlling his body language and remembering his talking points at the same time.

What is the format for the second debate? Are they standing, sitting on stools, or at a desk? How will they make up for Shrub's height deficiency? Will the audience ask the questions, or will they go through Gibson?

[tom22]

7. I agree that the sheltered process

in which Bush campaigns has been very damaging. He simply has no idea to come across to a non tame audience. He should have refused to debate. All of those tame softball questions, avoiding press conferences for years. He is simply lost in the process.

[secular_warrior]

10. Yes - Bush can't help himself

Kerry is an accomplished, classical debater and focuses on defeating his opponent. Bush can't control his emotions. When he gets angry it overtakes him and his face starts doing funny things. Remember, he prepared hard for the debate -- but crumbled as soon as he was exposed to hostile fire. Bush simply cannot deal with criticism, hence the loyaly pledges and avoiding the press. Our guy is as cool as a cucumber and I've never seen him break in a big moment. A much younger Kerry debated that swarmy little fuck John Oneil and never came close to losing it.

edit to add: Kerry must try to make Bush angry and force him to lose it again.

[Blue_Roses]

17. I totally agree

Rove and Hughes will try hard to get him to be more conscious of his body language, but it really is out of Bush's control. They may slip him a valuim...

[Minimus]

8. "more in command than the Commander in Chief " - I love it!

:7

[KittyWampus]

12. Bush Was "Outsimpled"!!! Absolutely Great Take

Kerry DID manage to keep it simple and direct.

Couldn't call him wonkish.

[AlCzervik]

13. To quote john McLaughlin from last night

Bush will be facing a large "Stature Gap"....God i love that phrase.

[Hot Water]

16. I think it's going to be even worse.

Bush is absolutely without question, no buts about it, mandatorily, and positively MUST come across without making those faces and showing his irritation. But he can't!

So what will happen is that he will CONSCIOUSLY be trying so hard to concentrate on that, he won't know if he should giggle, look serious, concerned, or what. It will be so funny that he will look like an apple looking for it's brain. After this one he's going to be a laughing stock. Count on it.