Rasmussen Battleground for 10/2

[louis c]

Rasmussen 3-day daily tracking for the national polls show a modest .4% gain for Kerry. Bush leads 48.6% to 45.6%. these are 3,000 respondents over 3 days, with 1/3 polled after the debate and 2/3 before.

Explanation and link.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

The 5 state 7 day rolling average for the 5 key battleground states are,

Florida, Bush 51%-46% (This is a 2 point Bush gain from yesterday, and 4 points in two days)

Michigan, Tie 46% (This is unchanged for the third day in a row)

Minnesota, Kerry 47%-46% (This is a 1 point Bush gain from yesterday, and 2 points in 2 days)

Ohio, Bush 49%-46% (This is a 1 point gain from yesterday, and 3 points in 2 days)

Pennsylvania, Tie 47% (This in unchanged from yesterday, but is a 4 point Bush gain over 5 days)

Weekly update,

Colorado, Bush 48%-44% (This is a 3 point gain by Bush from the 9/19 poll of Bush 46%-45%)

Colorado Senate, Salazar (D) 50% to Coors (R) 46% (This is a 5 point Salazar gain from 9/19 poll of Coors 49%-48%)

My editorial comment.
"Rasmussen tracking polls will be slower to show change because movement has pre-event data, such as Convention, Edwards VP choice, RNC, Swiftliars ad, and now the debate. It is necessary to keep this in mind."

"The National Poll on Monday will factor in the debate, but still, even that may take some time to resonate, as the general public evaluates that outcome."

"The State Polls will be even slower, because they take one full week to have a post event poll."

"This must be kept in mind while reading this data. In addition, Florida may show the least impact of the debate due to the numerous power outages which will leave many Floridians in the "dark" about what a complete and utter moron the President made of himself on Thursday Night. Maybe they'll catch the encore presentation in St. Louis or Arizona."

[UCLA Dem]

1. From what I've heard, Rasmussen has one of the least

accurate polling histories. The only one that has seemed to have a hint of accuracy has been Zogby. He's the only one who really combated the RNC "bounce" and Shrub's supposed leads. IMO everyone else's polls are crap. I don't believe for a second that they are tied in Michigan!!

[Hot Water]

3. Yup when Zogby says it Bush, have your Jack Daniels handy.

[59millionmorons]

5. Right on

Zogby has only done two presidential races in 1996 he had it exactly right at 48-41 and in 2000 hes had Gore winning by an inch. If Zogby has Bush up big on Nov 1 then I will worry.

http://www.ncpp.org/1936-2000.htm

[louis c]

4. Lately

Zogby and Rasmussen have had very similar data.

When I chose a Premium Site, I picked Rasmussen, because it cost $50, and Zogby was $200.

I try to follow Zogby, because he had the most accurate results in 2000.

Rasmussen did explain his mistake in 2000, that he didn't weight his polling data, while Zogby did. He has since corrected that problem, and is very much in line with Zogby.

On the other hand, the Assholes at Gallup made that same mistake in 2000, won't admit it, and continue to use the same methodology. Sounds a lot like that idiot who sits in the White House.

I follow all the polls, but you're right, Zogby is great, and I compare Rasmussen to Zogby every chance I get. If you notice, they are only fractions apart on the National results before the debate (Bush +2 or 3), so if you think Zogby is accurate, then Rasmussen must be, too.

[faithnotgreed]

9. succinct and true analysis

[WI_DEM]

2. Thanks, Louis

Rasmassen and Zogby have been pretty close this election year and obviously it will take time for the debate to factor in especially on the state polls. But I'm sure gains will be seen.

[speedoo]

6. Thanks, louis... one question.

Re. Ohio, who is gaining?

Thanks.

[louis c]

8. Ohio Numbers

9/23 (Bush 47%-45%); 9/24 (Bush 48%-44%); 9/25 (Bush 48%-45%); 9/26 (Bush 49%-45%); 9/27 (Bush 48%-46%); 9/28 (Bush 47%-46%); 9/29 (Bush 48%-47%); 9/30 (Tie 48%); 10/1 (Bush 49%-47%); 10/2 (Bush 49%-46%).

O.K.?

[Birthmark]

7. Following the polls is useless.

None of the polls is accurate, not even Zogby. This is because they cannot account for the people who have just registered to vote. I know five such people people personally. (I have nothing to do with "get out the vote" activities due to personal constraints.) My understanding is that this is happening all over the country - at a rate of better than 2:1 Dem to Repub. IOW, Kerry is comfortably ahead and will remain so.

[louis c]

10. I Hope the Polls

Have Kerry behind by 1 point right up till 11/1.

I have been involved in many campaigns, and the best incentive is to believe that a handful of votes can make the difference.

Then on 11/2, a Kerry landslide in the real poll, that's what I hope.

[Birthmark]

12. Sounds good to me.

Seems likely enough, too, given the crappy quality of the polls. I don't think that many Kerry supporters are going to sit this election out no matter what the polls say. Bush's abysmal performance as President has left too many of them without jobs, so what else will they have to do?

[Hot Water]

13. No quibble there.

But Zogby will have all the data right that he "can" gather. Other pollsters will still have it wrong.


All the new voters will just be frosting on top of THAT cake. So when you see Zogby tells the country Bush is in trouble, it's going to be not only right...but worse than that.

Don't forget all the overseas record number of ballot requests too.

[DrBB]

11. I'd start to look seriously in a couple of days

Not that I know anything about this shit. But just from internal evidence--my own reactions to events--and those of people around me, this kind of thing is really just starting to gel (Kerry's debate win, I mean). By mid-week it will be set in stone.