The results of the Newsweek Polls are out on the net

[Nicholas_J]

BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS

Three-Way Trial Heat
Total Total Total Undec./Other
Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Nader/Camejo
Current Total 45 47 2

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041002/nysa013_1.html

It is an "If the election was held today poll" as of 10/2

[JohnnyCougar]

1. eeeee!

...that was my giddy shriek

[Bucky]

2. That makes you sound like a Metrosexual

like this man

[rndmprsn]

3. woohoo!

but lets not get over-confident yet...but still, it feels good.

=]

[Awsi Dooger]

4. My debate watching crowd never lets me down

Had 19 people with me Thursday night, mostly apolotical and overwhelmingly impressed with Kerry. The women went 7-1 Kerry and not merely a "won the debate, won't vote for him" attitude.

It's perpetually amazing and pathetic how lame/biased/protective the media analysts and talking heads are, refusing to concede Kerry's debate dominance and underestimating potential swings in preference. Especially when the top of Bush's lead was soft and dated only to early September.

There will be other polls that contradict this surge. Don't believe them.

[Nicholas_J]

5. If you compare the last Newsweek Poll

Taken about three weeks ago, with the current one, Bush has dropped from 49 points to 45 points, and Kerry has gone up from 43 points to 47 point, a net change of 8 points in Kerry's favor.

The Newsweek poll was one of the polls that was oversampling Republicans during the post Republican Convention period, at one point having Bush with an 11 point lead.

Newsweek (1013 RV) 9/30 - 10/2 45% 47% 2% Kerry +2

Newsweek (1003 RV) 9/9 - 9/10 49% 43% 2% Bush +6

Newsweek (1,008 RV) 9/2 - 9/3 52% 41% 3% Bush +11

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

These are three Newsweek polls over a period of exactly one month, and the two prior polls rather oversampled Republican voters. The most recent poll has roughly equal sampling, or at least much less oversampling.


Int may be more likely that we see more polls sowing a Kerry lead than the opposite if my theory is correct. No one will want to be the media outlet that made the incorrect call. If Newsweek is the only media outlet that predicts an accurate outcome to therace and Kerry's lead results in him winning the election, then Newsweek becomes the defacto leading print Media Outlet in the United States, and MSNBC becomes the leading cable network, knocking the other media outlets like Fox out of the lead, and taking over for the next 4 years, just like CNN did after the Gulf War, adn Fox did after the 2000 elections.
Again, any other poll that shows Bush ahead, will be an oversampled poll, this one is not.

In fact, this poll may be reinforcing a throry of mine that it is not Republicans trying to control the polls in order to dishearten Democrats, but the media trying to create news, the unexpected. They are trying to turn the campaign into a real horserace, with a photofinish of a candidate winning by a nose. (this favors Kerry).

GIven that Newsweeks two earlier polls oversampled Republicans by a considerable percentage to make it look like Kerry's campaign was lost, and now they have changed pollsters, and have issued a poll after the debates that involves less oversampling in favor of any one candidate, I think my theory that it is the media trying to create news, and exciting race, rather than conservative manipulation of the polls may be the most likely theory.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. If It Bleeds It Leads...

Some reporters have an ideological axe to grind like Kark K Kameron but most salivate over a good story...


Kerry rising like a phoenix to steal victory out of the jaws of defeat is a good story...