Knowing The Outcome On Election Night?

[The Great Escape]

Is it more or less a given that we will not know (officially) that Kerry is Pres on Election night? Of course it's not truly official until the electors cast their votes.

[Walt Starr]

1. There is a very strong possibility there will be four or five contested

states this year.

Bascially take 2000 and multiply the anguish by four or five.

[carpetbagger]

2. I'd say 75% we'll know.

It might not be until late night, 3 or 4 Eastern, but all of the lower 48 states should have a complete set of tabulated results, or at least nearly complete, by late night. Probably there will be three states still up for grabs, but I think the only state that would leave the national picture up for grabs is Florida. Narrow victories will be known by late night, but the near-ties and the banana republics will probably linger on. I'd say there's a 10% chance of Florida being well within 1%, and a 15% chance of a few small states being within 0.3% and deciding the election.