"Why Media Overestimating Bush lead"-- especially interesting considering

[DemMother]

recent Newsweek poll.

from donkey rising (written before Newsweek poll released)

"Leading Pollster Guy Molyneux Explains Why the Media Is Overestimating Bush's Lead

Guy Molyneux is a highly respected analyst and pollster who serves as a Senior Vice President and Partner of Peter Hart Research Associates. In an article now available on the American Prospect's website he presents an extremely important analysis of why the media is overestimating Bush's lead and underestimating how close the race actually is.

Almost all poll reporting focuses on the “spread,” that is, the difference in the percentage supporting Bush and John Kerry...However, in incumbent elections, the incumbent’s percentage of the vote is a far better indicator of the state of the race than the spread. In fact, the percentage of the vote an incumbent president receives in surveys is an extraordinarily accurate predictor of the percentage he will receive on election day -- even though the survey results also include a pool of undecided voters.

Think of it this way: The percentage that Bush receives in polls represents his ceiling of support; he may get a little less, but won’t get more. In contrast, Kerry’s percentage represents his floor, and he will almost certainly do better on election day."

http://emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/index.php

[cheshire]

1. I like that analogy.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

2. Uh hey DUers

you HAVE to read this article. Go to the link given in the OP, then from there, go to the complete American Prospect article.

OMG, that gives me the willies!!!! Whooo!!! And it makes COMPLETE sense. He bases it on hard facts.

Read it!

[Robbien]

3. Isn't this theory also what TruthisAll

is using in her poll statistical analysis she posts here? Statistically this theory sounds right.

[spooky3]

4. interesting, thanks.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

5. Basically what this says is

if bush is polling at below 50%, he is toast.

Great article, I've already posted it on another site.

[BillZBubb]

6. I think most here agree totally with that assessment.

If Bush* is polling less than 48%, Kerry will win the election. It doesn't matter what the spread is.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

7. Yep

kick

[enough]

8. And something about the battleground states

from Molyneux's American Prospect article
http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=8694

snip>

You may also have heard that Bush is surging ahead in the crucial “battleground states” that will determine the Electoral College outcome. However, polls in these states actually reveal an even more precarious position for the president. Taken together, Bush receives a bit less support in these critical states than in the nation overall. In the latest NBC/WSJ poll, Bush receives 49 percent support nationally but only 47 percent in the battleground states, a typical finding. (Bush and Al Gore split the vote in these states evenly, 48 percent to 48 percent.)

More importantly, if we take an average of recent published polls of registered voters in individual states, Bush falls short of the 49-percent benchmark in nearly every one, including Ohio (47 percent), Florida (47 percent), and Pennsylvania (46 percent). Wisconsin (51 percent) is the only crucial battleground state in which Bush appears to have a fairly solid lead. Bush even fails to clear the 49-percent bar in such 2000 Bush states as West Virginia (47 percent), Missouri (49 percent), and Arkansas (48 percent). This year, it is quite possible that it will be Bush who ends up wishing we had scrapped the Electoral College in favor of a straight popular vote.

snip>

[oasis]

9. Judy Woodruff, read it and weep.

:cry:

[On the Road]

10. Wow -- Wow -- Wow

Very eloquent with a great command of the facts. I am heartened all over again.

:toast:

[enough]

11. Sunday morning kick

[demwing]

12. kick again

[indef]

13. last thing we need

is for neocons to think that it's a close election. I'd be happy if they think it'll be a landslide.