What house outcome would give us a majority on Nov 2?

[carpetbagger]

The races that get the most attention here tend to be the ones against well-known republicans, or involving internet darlings, but I'm trying to imagine what series of races would give us an unambiguous majority on November 2. Right now, the GOP holds 229 seats (including that guy who was outed from VA) and the democrats 206 (including Sanders). I'm going to assume LA districts 3 (Tauzin) and 7 (John) go to runoffs, so to get 218 seats on electon day we would need to gain 13 seats. In Texas, two seats currently held by democrats (11, 24) seem nearly certain to switch, with the incumbs. running in different districts. I'm also thinking it's not realistic for us to hold all of the seats in Texas, and I think Lampson (TX2) is the most endangered.

If Stenholm and Edwards hold on in Texas, and if all other democrats hold their seats or are replaced by democrats (which may be easier than holding TX 17 and 19), then we'd need 16 seats. I think the most realistic list is this:

Renzi (AZ 1), open CO 3, Beuaprez (CO 7), Harris (FL 13), Burns (GA 12), Hostettler (IN 8), Northup (KY 3), Porter (NV 3), open NY 27 and NY 29, Gerlach (PA-6), Open PA 8 and PA 15, Sessions (TX-32, Frost's new district), and WA 5 and 8 (open).

Does anyone know of any polls showing other races that look like they're going to switch, or (D) incumbants that look like they're in trouble?

[newyawker99]

1. kick

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