Jersey bounce for Kerry - 8 point lead

[Jersey Devil]

The Record is northeastern NJ's largest newspaper serving an area with a population in excess of one million.

A poll conducted Friday by The Record showed John Kerry with an eight-point lead over President Bush in New Jersey, despite other polls in recent weeks indicating a virtual deadlock in the race for the state's 15 electoral votes.

Of the 502 likely voters polled in the Garden State, 50 percent said they were planning to vote for the Democratic senator from Massachusetts, and 42 percent said they would vote to reelect Bush, a Republican. Six percent remained undecided, while 2 percent said they would vote for independent Ralph Nader.

The poll was taken the day after the first debate between Bush and Kerry, which was watched by more than 80 percent of those polled by The Record. Nearly half of those who saw the debate said Kerry won, and 34 percent said Bush won.

"There are two bottom lines," said Del Ali, whose firm, Research 2000 of Rockville, Md., conducted the poll on behalf of The Record. "New Jersey is a Kerry state, No. 1. And, No. 2, Kerry did very well in the debate. Bush did not do very well."

http://www.northjersey.com/page.php?qstr=eXJpcnk3ZjczN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXkyNSZmZ2JlbDdmN3ZxZWVFRXl5NjU5Mzc4MSZ5cmlyeTdmNzE3Zjd2cWVlRUV5eTI=

[indef]

1. Eight points up in NJ

is where Kerry should have been all summer long. No way does Bush take the tri-state in any stretch of the imagination.

[underpants]

2. That is great

Yaaaaaaay!

[westley]

3. New Jersey

Yeah! I hear he is getting geared up to try to get a few jersey votes next week.

[Trajan]

4. Im more inclined to believe ...

That NJ was NEVER in Bush's column, and was never even close to being so ....

The Polls, even these, must be doubted ...

We should read EVERY poll thusly: "Kerry is 1 % point behind" ... even if we believe he leads by 25% ....

Dont trust these fucks ...

[Jersey Devil]

5. Couldn't agree more - local Dems really pushing registration

My son, who just turned 18, received a letter from the local town council candidates that included a voter registration, absentee ballot request and a phone number for someone who would pick up and deliver the forms if necessary.

He had registered (I made sure of that) but it heartened me because that is the first time I had ever seen that happen here. I would know because I was involved in many local elections for the Dems.

[tomfodw]

6. I never believed it was really all that close

I think oversampling of Republicans was really rife with all the polls showing * close in NJ. I think Kerry will win NJ easily.

[Jersey Devil]

7. Agree, but finally getting good PR is important

The way people are willing to jump on a bandwagon is important in our society.

[indef]

8. like all those Nets fans - j/k

[tomfodw]

9. True, sometimes it's a self-fulfilling prophecy

Good news energizes the troops, bad news deflates them. People like to be associated with a prospective winner. Democrats, in particular, seem to blow so hot and cold. Republicans, when they lose, just get meaner and more determined (although, even when they win, they just get meaner, too).

Although it would be interesting, from a personal standpoint, to live in a battleground state, politically I'm just as happy if not more so if Kerry salts NJ away early with an insurmountable lead so he can concentrate on PA and elsewhere.

It's like being a sports fan: there's nothing so enthralling as a tight game or tight pennant race, and if you win late there's nothing more exciting. But that's after the fact. Before the fact, you want to score 20 runs in the first inning.

[KharmaTrain]

10. Let The Polls Stay Wrong

The last thing we want is to think Kerry's ahead in this race, even if he is. I liked being 5 to 10 points down on the conveluted polls...it made a lot of us really mad and worked harder.

Inversely, I see a lot of teetering Bunnypants supporters (especially here in Illinois where the ballot includes Alan Keyes) and I'm sure this is the case in many swing states as well. I was in Wisconsin recently and I know the polls there are all screwed up since that shows Bunnypants up by 7-9 points despite internal polling that shows the opposite.

I'd love to see a Kerry lead in the final days...just enough to get the GOOPers to start scratching their heads and wonder if their boy can actually win. If we plant that seed, this could really turn the worm as it's their vote that will be depressed, not ours.

Congrats on the great news from the Garden State. We knew all along that the McGreevy fiasco was going to be a problem, but Jersey is a strong Democratic state...now let's straighten out those polls in Maryland.

[Cha]

12. I'm just concerned as many are about them

trying to steal the race when people think it's so close.

An aside..I read yesterday(somewhere?)that george gallop jr was an evangelical Christain ..so what does that tell me? Hmmm!!

[KharmaTrain]

15. Be Wary, But Don't Let It Sway You

I just looked at the poll results on realclearpolitics.com...that shows the poll data and you shake your head and wonder how two companies could come up with such varied results. The reasons are many, but it's the perception game I know you're refering to.

There's a difference in this race that may work in our favor. In 2000, Bunnypants was the challenger, this time he has to defend and the undecideds and independents that broke toward him as "something different/new" aren't going this way this time and hopefully they're starting to swing toward Kerry.

Polls are like snapshots...they show you where things might have been, but they don't say where they are or where things are going...especially the horse race numbers Gallup and these other companies play with.

On Gallup, there are tons of strings on here going into the many conflicts between Gallup & CNN and their flawed methodology. My outrage has been how CNNservative uses those numbers as though they're the "official" ones and other polls are inferior. This morning they had a game show host "newsman" recite that according to a "CNN Poll", Bunnypants has 301 electoral votes. He said it in a declarative way; despite most numbers I've seen show the race far closer. No qualifier, no mention of conflicts...but I sense people see all these goofy polls and say "this doesn't reflect how I'm feeling".

Cheers!

[Cha]

16. cnn is going to collectively

shit their whoring pants when their corporate, bush monkey god, goes down.

[KharmaTrain]

17. They're Coporate, They're Feckless, They Hate Us...LOL

If there's a huge Kerry win, watch how CNNservative swings our way like it never betrayed us. Forget it...it's now on my "scanlist" with Faux and Home Shopping.

But then the only people they're accountable is to themselves. Personally, I'd love for some insider to come forward and DU is a great place to do it to tell us who really calls the shots at that place...management, producers and directors...the people behind the scenes who decide how the stories are played, the words on the scroll, the voices in the "newsbabes" ears and so on.

Did Daryn Kagan get a call in her "earpiece" from the White House to slur David Letterman over the video piece with the kid at the Bunnypants "rally"??? Curious minds still would like to investigate that one.

The media got a rude awakening the past couple months...there's a "left" side to the "right" one, and we can make noise and do so in a far more direct and damning way. That's why we're getting even more resistance...these assholes hate that we're right and putting it in their faces. Life sucks...LOL.

Cheers!

[Cha]

19. I think the guy at the top calls the shots

at cnn.

This is from a thread where tweety tells all about the corporates..

"UPDATE II: Forgot to add what he said about the media. HE didn't acknowledge a conservative bias, but he did say something that I found quite honest: the days of the liberal, egg-headed reporter in the mold of Cronkite are over - most journalists (who he respects) and especially news anchors and TV news personalities are careerists who want to get ahead and get cash - implying that they trumpet whatever line will make their producers happy"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=953785

If this isn't "biased" and whoring..I don't know what is!

[ZombieNixon]

21. It would be great

if the polls show Chimpy Shrubya Arbusto with a ten point lead everywhere and then JK won everything. Incidentally, my Calculus class figured out that, under the EC, you can theoretically win the presidency and only carry 11 states. The catch is you have to win the likes CA, TX, NY and IL. The last time that happened was Reagan in 84, so when NY and TX vote together, you know the country's feeling something.

[fujiyama]

22. It's weird

but Clinton almost won TX in '92. He lost the state by some 3 points.

[DaveinMD]

11. Bus was already unpopular

this poll shows the debate was important in solidifying Democratic and independent support for Kerry. He'll win New Jersey easily.

[Nicholas_J]

13. This is a good indicator

Given that the first national poll taken after the debate also showed a similar spread
with Bush dropping 4 points and Kerry rising 4 point in the latest Newsweek poll.
With some polls showing Bush either catching up to Kerry or even passing him in a few states
that Kerry had a significant lead in and that Gore won in 2000, this is aj indication that some
of those polls giving traditionally democratic states to Bush were either totally flawed
or that if they were not, Kerry will likely come back to previous levels in those states.
I was hoping to quicky see a co-relation between a state and national polls after the debate
as this would be the best indication that the debates actually will have an effect on the way
undecided voters cast their ballot in November.

[baltodemvet]

14. Good News

The earlier NJ numbers (like those for MD) had me scratching my head big time. We're on a roll here--let's keep it moving!

[cheshire]

18. Oh My this is fun, Lots of good news. Makes ya motivated.

[mvd]

20. That's about where it was pre Bush-"bounce"

Good news indeed. :toast: