Kerry could win big; no I'm not being overconfident

[mike from ri]

Of course, a number of assumptions and events have to come into play:

1. Kerry was never really that far behind; the polling has been biased by a lull in enthusiasm for Kerry pre-debate; there was never such a large lull in actual voter preference; maybe just 3 or 4 points among RV.

2. Kerry has been doing better in swing states than nationally all along. the nation already knows about b*sh; only swing state voters have been exposed to Kerry in relatively large doses.

3. Nader (whose support is slim anyhow) will fade rapidly towards the end.

4. turn-out and field organization. need i say more?

5. a natural tendency of dems to "come home" b4 the end.

6. the need for the Dem base to be fired up (repubs seem not to need this factor as much) is now fulfilled.

7. Kerry continues to do well in debates (not necessary for bush to continue to do quite so bad).

8. Kerry goes thematic -- connects bush's anti-tax, anti-gov, anti-conservation rhetoric and attitudes to long-term failures in war-on-terror.

10. Kerry listens to the old Clinton hands rather than the old dukakis and gore hands.

11. surrogates like Neural Clark and John Glenn do their part.

12. a few lucky breaks.


result: 54-45-1. dems take sen. by two seats. take house, yes house, by same margin. not a a huge landslide; but sort of a landslide.





Mike from RI

[bringbackfdr]

1. Confidence is great

And modern history shows you could be right; typically an election involving an incumbent president is not close - the incumbent wins or loses in a rout, with Gerald Ford in 1976 being the obvious exception. This is not, however, a typical election - the incumbent lost his original election and was appointed, which calcified both sides of the aisle. This incumbent is not above lying (obviously) or orchestrating events to help himself.
That said, if Kerry can duplicate his performance in Debate 2, Shrub will be in a heap of trouble. His people know it, that's why they are becoming nastier than ever.

[nostalgicaboutmyfutr]

2. all valid points

I think you have touched on some important points.

Let us all not forget that many bush voters would lie to vote kerry but need to see more of himin real situations like the debates sounds bite and 10-sec clips are not enough...thank goodness that dems are using combo advertising so they can air Kerr and the democrats advertisements..

[Zeke]

3. Seriously...

Depending on how bad Kerry destroys Bush in debate #2, and how bad Bush kills hinmself in debate #2, even Republican voters will flee from Bush, which put the Senate and House into play.

[mike from ri]

4. excsue the typo in my original post

of course, i meant "General Clark"

[baltodemvet]

5. We need to make this a big win!

Squeeking by isn't good enough. We need to make this an unmistakable repudiation of the Bush administration.

Our national honor demands this. Remember, these thugs allowed/condoned/encouraged the torture of POWs--a violation of international law and American standards of decency.