Brand new CNN/USAToday/Gallup Poll

[newsguyatl]

is released today at 6p EST.

just a heads up, because i know how much DU loves gallup :D

[mzmolly]

1. Goot newz er bad newz?

;)

Hint?

[newsguyatl]

3. i honestly don't know yet

it's gallup though, so figure a good 6-7 point skew for dim son

[Rose Siding]

2. That's an awful big smile on your smilie, newsguy

I'm tempted to infer!

[ps1074]

4. tell us please the numbers NOW

:hi:

It wiould be cool if they still have 10% more republicans in the poll and it shows Kerry leading. It will be absolutely non spinnable!

[JI7]

5. i'm guessing it's favorable to Chimp

since i find it unlikely they would report on it if it was favorable to Kerry.

[DaveinMD]

6. I predict

a four point Bush lead because of their skewed sample.

[in_cog_ni_to]

7. Shall we place bets?

I say Gallup will have the chimp up by 5-7 points.

[Kahuna]

9. Don't they always? That's why I always automatically DEDUCT..

seven points from their polls. :puke:

[durablend]

10. 8 points, advantage *, AT LEAST

Rasmussen sez the debates had little effect on the voting populace.

[progressivebydesign]

8. Gallup? Family friends of Bush?? I say UNCHANGED!!! n/t

[troublemaker]

11. My guess: It will be Bush by 1 LV; Kerry by one RV

[shockingelk]

13. My prediction

Head to head, Jr loses 3, Kerry gains 2, "unsure" gains 1:

Bush: 49
Kerry: 46
unsure: 4

[zoeb]

12. They don't take into consideration the party affilation

so they tend to over sample republicans 7-9%. They call it a changing variable. Pew does the same in their polls.

[bagnana]

14. I call it bullcrap.

I think Bush's nos. will be unchanged in the Gallup poll. Until they change their polling weighting, there will be no change in the numbers.

[snippy]

15. I think Kerry will show some gains because of the methodology Gallup

uses to determine likely voters. Democrats should displace some of the republicans previously included in the likely voter category since democrats are more optimistic and enthusiastic following the debate while republicans are more despondent and depressed.

If I am right I deserve a great deal of credit, but if I am wrong it is not my fault because, as we all know from the debate, it is hard work being stupid and wrong.

[unfrigginreal]

16. Gallup?

Surely Bush's advantage has increased since the debate - the poll probably consists of 60% Republicans this time.