Still trust Rasmussen? No discernible debate effect? WTF?

[TruthIsAll]

You mean to tell me that as a result of the debate, 2% switched from Kerry to Bush (?), while 3% switched from Bush to Kerry?

What debate did those 2% watch?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

Sunday October 03, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 45%.

These results are based upon a survey of 3,000 Likely Voters conducted Thursday night, Friday night, and Saturday afternoon. As a result, just over two-thirds of the interviews were conducted following Thursday night's Presidential Debate.

Interviews conducted on Friday and Saturday show Kerry with a one-point bounce so far since the debate. However, in post-debate interviews, Bush still leads 49% to 46%.

The debates did little to change voter perceptions of the candidates' political ideology. However, following the debate, there was an increase in the number who say finishing the mission in Iraq is more important than getting troops home as soon as possible.

Six percent (6%)% of voters say they changed their minds following the debate. This includes 3% who are now voting for Kerry, 2% for Bush, and 1% who are now undecided.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[Mizmoon]

1. All polls, for us and against us, are just polls

I say that because everyone was certain Dean would win the nomination ... that's what all the polls said. They also said that Kerry's attempt at the nomination was dead. Look what happened.

[Mojambo]

2. I predict

that this will be the election that destroys polling as we know it.

They have it so wrong, it's not even funnuy.

[Carolinian]

3. Working voter registration Sat, there was more vocal support for Kerry

than prior weeks. I heard this several times: "finishing the mission in Iraq is more important than getting troops home as soon as possible." I don't like it.

[mvd]

4. I just don't trust any Repuke who polls

His poll has been more interesting to follow than most polls, but that's all I'll say.

[nannah]

5. did it ever occur to you that polls are used to get the public

ready to accept the "results" of the election? polls that show close or slim lead for bush prepare us to believe it when we hear that bush won. polls allow us to doubt the accuracy of our own personal knowledge and feedback from people around us.

[TruthIsAll]

7. No, it never occurred to me. Jeez, I've been posting on this for

over two years now.

Funny, but you didn't mention Diebold. The real aim is to prop up Bush so he can steal it in Cyberspace.

In any case, Rasmussen is a Repuke who was totally discredited in 2000. He was way off the mark.

I don't trust him.

Did it ever occur to you, that's why I posted this?

[dansolo]

17. That is also why the Republicans want Nader on the ballot

If they plan on monkeying with the vote, it would be a lot easier to shift votes to Nader than to switch them to Bush. That way they can nullify Kerry votes without raising too much suspicions.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Yes, give it time

The debate is being spun more and more in Kerry's favor. Friday and Saturday interviews did not have the benefit of that onesidedness. A full 1/3 taken before the debate is a significant chunk.

Also, keep in mind there was only one water cooler day last week, with a Thursday night debate. More influence starts tomorrow.

Three day tracking polls are much slower to recognize a shift than instant snapshots.

[shraby]

9. By keeping the polls close,

if Kerry wins big, people will think Kerry stole the election.

If Bush wins, it will look okay. We're damned if we do and damned if we don't. That's why the polls are being kept close.

[louis c]

8. Let the Debate sink in

Rasmussen was all right with everyone when MSNBC had Bush by 11, and Rasmussen had it at only 2 or 3.

Tracking takes time, so does Zogby's tracking. Let the debate victory sink in, the numbers will come around.

[CatWoman]

10. GEORGE W. BUSH - THE GREATEST PRESIDENT SINCE GENERAL PATTON!!

:D

:hi:

[gatorboy]

11. I don't think we should worry about the Rasmussen Report too much.

The CNN poll says all that needs to be said:

http://www.cnn.com/POLLSERVER/results/13581.content.html

President George W. Bush 21% 177822 votes

Sen. John Kerry 72% 616029 votes

Evenly matched 7% 63572 votes


I mean look at that number! There's no way you can spin that!

[Barney Rocks]

12. I am suspicious

of all polls. Interesting that they say only 6% changed their mind after the debate. Perhaps their sample did not catch the true magnitude of the people who switched their choice?

[Jasper 91]

13. Where's the latest Zogby poll ?

I thought there was going to be a state-by-state poll reported towards the end of this week , so why no sign of it ?

I have always found Zogby to be the most accurate as he always uses samples that are representative of the population's make-up .

[newyawker99]

22. Hi Delightful!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Teaser]

14. He always lags trends by a few days.

It'll show up, but probably not till the end of this week.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Rasmussen Blows... He Uses Automated Callers....

Would you tell an automated voice who you are voting for?

[Awsi Dooger]

16. At least Rasmussen consistently uses the proper weighted sample

Rasmussen weighs his samples using a 39% Democratic, 35% Republican, 26% Independent breakdown. He thinks this will be the composition of the actual voter population on November 2. A large Harris party ID survey (6000 respondents) earlier this year found a simliar partisan breakdown.

As frequently stressed on DU, the Newsweek, LA Times, and others that show wild fluctuation from poll to poll generally do not weigh their samples by party ID. The large spikes and dips in these polls can be attributed to their samples being skewed in favor of one party in one poll, and the other party in the next.

Rasmussen attributes his embarrassing showing in 2000 (49-40 Bush on election eve) to his failure to weigh his samples by party. He claims that had he done so, his poll would have shown Gore leading by 1.

Rasmussen's final polls in 2002 were generally very good, likewise in '96 if I remember correctly.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Rasmussen Is A Charlatan

Nuff Said....

[Awsi Dooger]

21. Unless Kerry wins and Rasmussen is the only one who nailed it

Then we'll re-evaluate. 'Nuff written.

[SoCalDemocrat]

19. It's too soon for the bounce

1/3 of those polled by Rasmussen were before the debate, the rest were immediately following it.

Some 60 million persons watched the debate. How many of those polled were among that 60 million? Half maybe? So for the initial 1/3, and for 1/2 of the remaining 2/3, they didn't have a chance yet to be influenced by the debate. Figure 60% conservatively. Once they read about it or catch it in reruns, expect them to shift accordingly.

Kerry got a 1% bounce per Rasmussen, and another 1% shifted to uncertain. We can speculate many of the new uncertains were previously leaning Bush. From interviews I've watched that would seem to be the case. Given Rasmussen polled 40% or less of the debate viewers, a 1% bounce plus 1% more that may swing is good. In the end this will probably look more like 3% or better after the second debate.

[RhodaGrits]

20. I just asked my sister in NJ if she watched the debates...

granted, I love her but she's an idiot.

She said she watched most of it. Turned it off because she felt too bad for poor Bush. I asked her who she was going to vote for and she said she still hadn't decided. That Kerry struck her as a "know-it-all".

I think I swung her over but ohmigod.