Some interesting historical poll data.

[elperromagico]

I've been doing a bit of figuring based on the last six elections where an incumbent sought reelection. There have been three times where the incumbent lost, and three times when the incumbent was defeated.

Most of us aren't terribly fond of Gallup, I know, but looking at their polling data from the past provides some interesting insight.

Incumbents Who Were Defeated

Bush 41 (1992)

Highest Poll Number: 48%
Lowest Poll Number: 29%
Average: 36%
General Election: 37%

Carter (1980)

Highest Poll Number (Pre-Anderson): 62%
Highest Poll Number (Post-Anderson): 47%
Lowest Poll Number: 29%
Overall Average: 42%
Post-Anderson Average: 39%
General Election: 41%

Ford (1976)

Highest Poll Number: 49%
Lowest Poll Number: 29%
Average: 41%
General Election: 48%

Incumbents Who Won:

Clinton (1996)

Highest Poll Number: 57%
Lowest Poll Number: 43%
Average: 50%
General Election: 49%

Reagan (1984)

Highest Poll Number: 59%
Lowest Poll Number: 48%
Average: 54%
General Election: 59%

Nixon (1972)

Highest Poll Number: 53%
Lowest Poll Number: 64%
Average: 58%
General Election: 61%

Sensing a pattern here? Any idea what Bush's average number is?

[elperromagico]

1. Kick.

:kick::silly:

[Dob Bole]

2. check pollingreport.com

they have charts every now and then...they might have a graph of Bush's poll ratings.

[elperromagico]

7. Will do.

:thumbsup:

[patricia92243]

3. Tell us , tell us!!

[BootinUp]

4. I think the message is

this will be close. The factor that favors Kerry is higher turnout. If Bush is at or below 50%, I think we win narrowly.

[MissouriTeacher]

5. It's the 50% phenomenon...

I don't know what Bush's average is, but I know it's below 50%.

Guy Molyneux, a pollster, has an article about this on the American Prospect's website saying that Bush is in trouble because he is failing to meet the 50% percent mark.

Keep in mind, in 1996, Perot was running again.

[elperromagico]

6. Yes. In terms of the two party vote, Clinton probably had

an average of about 55%.

[Barney Rocks]

8. Looking at this, I have to

say that this seems most like when Ford was defeated.

Ford is very similar to W in that neither one of them were ever elected, both have been tainted by an unpopular war, both have had problems with domestic and foreign policy, both are perceived as weak candidates--gauche and awkward who make lots of social mistakes.

Bush 1 and Carter were a little bit different, they were both elected--and usually elected presidents have some floor of support--the people who elected them have a level of commitment to them also both of them had to deal with 3rd party candidates, the popularity of these 3rd party candidates complicates analysis of the results.