DU Southerners: The Outlook this year is Really Good!!!

[Dob Bole]

Upset that Bush is popular in the South? Don't worry...we're about to get rid of him!!

My prediction has been that Kerry will get at least 30 electoral votes in the South, even with Bush in office...and I stand by it. In addition, when Kerry wins he will likely bring in Wesley Clark (D-AR), Max Cleland (D-GA), and maybe Jim Clyburn (D-SC), and Donna Brazile (D-LA.) John Edwards (D-NC) will be the President of the Senate.

Speaking of the Senate, the outlook is really good for us. There are 7 Senate elections in the South. Richard Shelby of Alabama (who switched to the GOP in the last decade) will probably keep his seat. Unless Denise Majette can really pick up her campaign, Zell Miller's seat will probably go to a real Republican.

But we own the other 5.

Blanche Lincoln will hold her seat in Arkansas, and we will get four brand new Democratic incumbents. Betty Castor is leading in Florida, Inez Tenenbaum in South Carolina, Erskine Bowles in North Carolina, and probably Chris John in Louisiana.

So print this out and put it on your refrigerator. That way, every time you go to get your sweet tea, you can say to yourself:

"Self...help is on the way!!"

[Cha]

1. "Chris John in Louisiana."?

I thought Louisianna had two Dem Senators..John Breaux, and Mary Landrieu?

And your news is Heartening:)

[Dob Bole]

2. Breaux is retiring...

There are 3 Democrats running to succeed him, and one of them will end up in a runoff with the Republican. Chris John is favored to win.

And Louisiana has never elected a Republican to the Senate.

(Although Georgia didn't have a Republican governor during the entire 20th century, and now we have one :( )

[Cha]

11. Oh, wow, news to me!

Thanks to both of you for responding..

Guess Breaux has better things to do?

[Dob Bole]

13. He is about 60...

you would think he had quite a few years left in him. I wish he would stay in- rumor has it he's leaving for some corporate job.

Oh well. The odds are in our favor, but I would still like Breaux better.

[Cha]

15. Well, if he wants a corporate job..

and, of course, I don't know that for sure..but if he does then it would seem to me that he's not that dedicated..I hope Chris John is!

"With his trademark Cajun humor, it’s no wonder he is the chosen candidate of U.S. Sen. John Breaux, a nationally renowned Democrat who won the seat in 1986 after serving in the U.S. House of Representatives for 14 years. The two men not only share the same country wit, but both hail from Crowley, an area that is jam-packed with political experience -- former Gov. Edwin Edwards is also a native of the Rice Capital of America.

John most recently represented the 7th Congressional District, a seat he relinquished to make this Senate bid. He grew up working in his family’s trucking business before being elected to the Crowley City Council and then to the state Legislature in the ’80s. Coincidentally, it was the same state House seat his father -- the late John N. John -- held decades ago."

<<More at>>
http://www.chrisjohn.com/article44.aspx

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Breaux is retiring

Chris John is apparently the Dem frontrunner to survive November 2, but not 50% to avoid a runoff.

I'm not optimistic at all about South Carolina senate and worried as hell about North Carolina and Florida, but maybe Kerry's surge can keep those seats in our favor.

[Dob Bole]

7. Take these polls, Naysayser!!!

www.electoral-vote.com has a Senate wrap-up today!

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Polls don't mean as much to me as the patrisan tilt of the state

There is an inevitable tilt in that direction, especially in a presidential year and if the partisan nature of the state is severe.

Reality: this year we are trying to steal Alaska, Oklahoma and Colorado. Also attempting to "hold" Georgia, hold South Carolina, hold North Carolina, hold Louisiana and hold Florida.

Florida is a 50/50 state. Every other state on that list tilts Republican and most of them by considerable margin, double digits in the case of Alaska, Oklahoma, and South Carolina. It will take superior candidates and flawed opponents to overcome that type of road game. Similar to 2002, when we were also playing on GOP turf in the major senate races, and the results did not mirror the polls or our optimism.

[baltodemvet]

3. Man, it would be sweet to have a majority Dem Senate!

Thanks for the encouraging news!

[Demi_Babe]

4. Bowles for sure

:-)

[Francine Frensky]

5. I live in Atl. suburbs and canvassed yest., and was very SURPRISED

with the positive response we received. OK, most people weren't home (I assume this is common), but out of 40 doors, we had 8 live people who were VERY excited to talk about Kerry, and were very adament about voting for him.

We did have one black single woman, who claimed to be independent, but said her top issues were education, social security and healthcare, and although I had the urge to hit her with a frying pan on the side of her head (!!!), I talked to her patiently and answered questions and hopefully left her with a good understanding that the democrats OWN those particular issues.

But one other thing of much interest was that everyone smiled widely when talking about the debate, snickering at Bush, talking about how presidential Kerry looked and how immature Bush was.... you could tell the "common" people were really proud to be on the Kerry team00.

Overall, even in this heavily republican suburban area, bush stickers are only 2-1 over Kerry stickers, and it should be/could be about 10-1.

[Boredtodeath]

8. North, South, East or West 'burbs?

Just curious what part of the area such encouraging news is coming from!

Great job.

[RebelOne]

10. I'm in the north suburbs, Woodstock to be exact.

Only Bush/Cheney signs and bumperstickers up here. I am probably the only one in this area with a Kerry/Edwards bumpersticker here.

[CrowNotAngelGRL]

17. I'm in TN

and we have a good mixture. I've seen more bumper stickers for Kerry though then anything and anti-Bush bumper stickers. My favorite anti-Bush bumper sticker is one that said: "Vote the Son of a Bush Out." LOL. I loved that. Also now on the electoral vote site Kerry is fifty-eight votes away from Bush, so if he can get sixty-five more people then that'd be great! :bounce:

[Francine Frensky]

14. North. Newt's old district!!!! Oh, and one other amazing thing:

My daughter's second grade class "voted" for president and Kerry won 12-8.

The second graders are hearing something at home!

[Dob Bole]

18. Great Job!

I avoid Atlanta and don't go there very often...rural life is the life for me. But I am going to the Fox Theatre on Sunday.

[yankeeinlouisiana]

9. The only problem is

Chris John is to the right of Breaux -- but at least he's a Dem! I really like Morrell, but John Kennedy is pretty much in between those two.

And we certainly do not want the re:puke: Vitter.

[joanne]

12. Inez is leading in SC?

That is great news as think she was considered a long shot at best... REALLY hope she wins next month.

I certainly think our chances of having a majority in the Senate next year are VERY good.

[funkybutt]

19. Amen...Morrell is great

I'm not sure about Chris John. I'd rather see Kennedy in there, I guess. Sure wish Morrell had more financial support. I dont' know if anyone knows of him outside of New Orleans.