The race is still Kerry's to lose.

[coloradodem2005]

This is a Zogby article. The day of the debate. Before the debate.


The Race Is Still Kerry’s To Lose...By John Zogby



Tonight President George W. Bush and his Democrat opponent Senator John Kerry will engage in their first of three debates. Historically, these televised presidential debates have had a significant impact on the final outcome of several elections. In 1960, a polished and articulate Massachusetts Senator named John F. Kennedy showed that he could compete with a more experienced and older sitting Vice-President, Richard Nixon.

And in 1980, when Americans seemed to have made up their minds about not voting for President Jimmy Carter, they needed to be assured that his opponent, Republican Ronald Reagan was more than a dangerous ideologue or a Grade B actor. Reagan delivered one of the great knockout blows in presidential debate history: “Are you better off than you were fours ago?”

Tonight’s debate is especially momentous because the race is extremely close, the two sides are very polarized, and there are only a small number – perhaps only 6 million voters nationwide – who are genuinely undecided. The stakes are important for both candidates, but much more so for Mr. Kerry.

In May of this year I wrote a column arguing that Senator F. John Kerry would defeat President George W. Bush in the November election. I based my conclusion on several factors. First, that Mr. Bush was posting weak numbers for an incumbent. In fact, the last three incumbents seeking re-election with numbers like his all went down in defeat – Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980, and the President’s father in 1992.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=873

[ClintonTyree]

1. I'm very interested...................

in seeing the post debate poll. I received mine the day after. Of course there's no need telling you how I answered, but I'll be very interested to see what the new numbers say. Zogby, in my opinion, is the poll of record for the election. All of the others have at least a modicum of flawed methodology, but Zogby always seems spot on.