How many blue states remain in play?

[dolstein]

By my estimate, the following blue states are still being seriously contested by both campaigns:

Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
New Mexico

The Bush campaign may still be targeting New Jersey, Maine and Oregon, but I don't think these states are as competitive as the ones I have listed above. I think it's also possible that Michigan will soon drop off the list.

[trotsky]

1. Bush will NOT win Minnesota.

Just ain't gonna happen. Nader got almost 6% of the vote here in 2000, and almost none of those people are going to risk a * win this time around. Kerry will win by at least 5%.

In fact, the only one of those I think he MAY have an outside chance of winning is New Mexico. WI has been trending * for awhile but I think even they will come to their senses.

[Awsi Dooger]

2. Add Oregon

In a 50/50 race we have no birthright to either state, despite flawed impressions they tilt significantly Democratic. In each of the last two presidential elections, including '96 without Nader, both Oregon and New Mexico leaned slightly more Republican than the national popular vote average.

New Mexico:
'88: Bush (51.86 - 46.90) = + 2.76 Democrat
'92: Clinton (45.90 - 37.34) = + 3.00% Democrat
'96: Clinton (49.18 - 41.86) = + 1.21% Republican
'00: Gore (47.91 - 47.85) = + 0.45% Republican

Oregon:
'88: Dukakis (51.28 - 46.61) = + 12.39% Democrat
'92: Clinton (42.48 - 32.53) = + 4.39% Democrat
'96: Clinton (47.15 - 39.06) = + 0.44% Republican
'00: Gore (46.96 - 46.52) = + 0.07% Republican

on edit: sorry, you did include New Mexico. I missed that the first time

[warrens]

3. Michigan is solid Kerry now

So is New Mexico. I think PA is too, but the lead is still too narrow. Wisconsin and Iowa are going to be close, but I think both will go Kerry in the end. The Kerry campaign is flooding both with volunteers from solid blue and solid red states.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. Pa and Wisconsin are up in the air

Although my weekend in Philadelphia encourages me that the Kerry team ground troops are well organized and ready to win the state.

[yellowcanine]

5. Are there any after the debate polls on Wisconsin and Iowa?

I am not so worried about New Mexico as I believe Richardson and the Hispanic vote will pull Kerry through there. But I am worried about Wisconsin and a little less so about Iowa.