Zogby: "There is also no doubt that Ralph Nader is hurting Kerry."

[DeepModem Mom]

October 1-3:
Bush 46
Kerry 45
Undecided 8

The race remains unchanged in a multi-candidate race. It is clear that Independent Ralph Nader is having an impact on Senator John Kerry.

Bush 46
Kerry 43
Nader 2.4
Undecided 8

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=874


Trying to minimize flames --

Many here assign no credibility to polls; many don't want to hear about them; most question pollsters' motives. Among DUers who do want to hear, and give some credibiity to polling, many have expressed more trust in Zogby than other pollsters. There is also the question in many discussions as to whether Nader will impact the race, with opinions from many who think he will, and many who think he will not. Zogby apparently thinks he does impact. Then there's the question of which states he will be on the ballot. It's very difficult to get information on this. This link is, I know, out of date, as I know that the Arkansas Supreme Court recently approved Nader's placement on the ballot there, and Nader is listed as off the ballot in Arkansas:

http://www.thenaderfactor.com/access/

ON EDIT: According to info provided by MallRat at this link, the only "battleground" states in which Nader is definitely off the ballot are: Missouri, Ohio, Oregon and Virginia --

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=965223&mesg_id=965223

[mzmolly]

1. Darn right he is, we can't "ignore" this fool in 2004. I don't know why

a PAC hasn't cropped up that would tell the truth about this narcissist.

[DeepModem Mom]

3. I couldn't think of a thing that could be done -- maybe something...

like that is a possibility --

[Julien Sorel]

40. Spend money to give him more publicity?

That's just what he and his followers want. There's not much anyone can do but grin and bear it, and wait Nadir out.

[amber dog democrat]

2. Doesn't it seem that anyone who votes for Nader

would not be voting for Kerry anyway. In my mind a vote for Nader is a vote for Bush.
What we need to do is forget about Nader and stay focused on winning back the White House.

[billbuckhead]

6. Our mistake is to not do the same thing back to the RepuKKKes

We need to hijack the Libertarian party and aim it at fundies, druggies and gun nuts.

[MsTryska]

19. they've got Badnarik and the LP to deal with...

although nobody's talking about it.

i know quite a few conservatives who will be voting LP rather than repub this year.

[DeepModem Mom]

23. Zogby has Badnarik at .6, and Peroutka at .2 --

[DeepModem Mom]

9. Zogby appears to be showing Kerry one point behind Bush...

in the two-way, and three-points behind in the three-way. If that held up, and 2004 is as close as 2000, two points will decide states. I agree that we should concentrate on waging a campaign that will result in a victory margin wide enough not to be affected by Nader (or fraud!), but it would help, if Zogby is correct, if Nader were neutralized as a factor.

[mzmolly]

13. Our nation is too divided to presume we can hold an election with a

margin wide enough to eliminate Nader's influence.

Nader knows that too!

[hippiechick]

4. I think the undecided's are more important than Nader...

In any election there is going to be a small percentage that collectively votes for the 'far fringe' parties, ie, the Socialists, Natural Law, Constitution, Libertarian, etc etc ... Nader is no more of a blip on the radar than they are.


:hippie:

[mzmolly]

11. Nader is getting help from the media and the Republicans. He is a

factor in the polls, one that hurts Kerry in this very close race.

[hippiechick]

31. And when did we at DU start believing polls ?

:shrug:

[mzmolly]

47. Uhm, who's *we* I always look at trends in polls, and poll after poll

suggests Nader helps Bush. ;)

Republicans aren't putting eggs into the Nader basket because they care about *cough* "democracy" :hi:

[King Coal]

5. It has been my experience that Nader is taking many votes from republicans

Bush is not well-liked by many republicans and I know some who say they are voting for Nader.

[mzmolly]

8. Polls show him hurting Kerry, helping Bush.

Unfortunately.

[DeepModem Mom]

12. Which is why Republicans are funding him and getting him on ballots --

that is a fact beyond any dispute --

[King Coal]

32. I don't believe the polls.

[DemNoir]

7. Sorry but its just ridiculous!

This is saying that Nader will double his votes from last time, it just is not going to happen.

[mzmolly]

10. This is based on poll after poll. Check the website.

It can happen. I know of several people in my state voting for Nader.

[RevCheesehead]

39. Good golly, MsMolly - where is THAT??

And what can we do to help?

From what I saw in Madison (Sept. 15), when Kerry visited, he drew a crowd of 13,000. Afterwards, I saw a group of 8 Nader supporters, and told them "Nader is so wrong, he's a vote for bush, you're preaching to the wrong crowd, etc..."

[mzmolly]

48. Here it is Rev.

http://www.theunitycampaign.org/battleground/index.html

Pollwatch 04

Continuing Proof that Nader Helps Bush
Ralph Nader continues to assert he’ll help beat George Bush. Nader’s communications director Kevin Zeese specifically cites a CNN poll in which John Kerry’s lead improves by 1% when Nader is included. What Mr. Zeese fails to mention is that the poll he cited is contradicted by 117 other polls – as is documented in the latest Poll Watch 04 study released August 2, 2004.

The Poll Watch 04 study covers every Bush/Kerry—Bush/Kerry/Nader poll conducted, nationally or in battleground states, from Nader’s announcement of his candidacy through July 26. It is based on data from the authoritative, non-partisan PollingReport.com, and sponsored by The Unity Campaign.

Of 121 polls in the study, 117 contradict Nader’s persistent claim that he’ll take more votes from Republicans than from Democrats. Of these, 93 show Nader takes more votes from Kerry, while 24 show no impact. 4 polls show Nader taking more votes from Bush, in each case by a percentage far within each poll’s margin of error.

Across all polls in the study, Nader gets an average of 4.3%, with more than 2.5% coming from Senator Kerry, and 0.9% from President Bush. That 1.6% average impact on the Bush/Kerry margin exceeds the winning margin from the 2000 presidential election in six states. Those six states had 59 electoral votes (Florida, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa, Oregon, and New Hampshire).

The study spreadsheet provides all raw data in the study, including polls results, sponsors, dates and sources.

[RevCheesehead]

51. Thanks, but I was just wondering what state YOU hail from...

...from what I hear around WI, Nader support is rather soft. Of course, polls vary from 1% - 6%, but I don't see the yardsigns or bumperstickers. Maybe they're shy. Maybe they're in "an undisclosed location" with Cheney.

Some of the people I speak with tell me, "I'm not totally sold on Kerry, but we simply CANNOT have 4 more years of *."

[mzmolly]

54. I hail from Minnesota. And, unfortunately even 1% can make the

difference in this election. :(

I know of at least 3 people personally who are voting for Nader. I don't get it b/c they can't stand Bush.

[saracat]

22. He didn't have Repug backing last time.

And dienfranchised Repugs looking for an out to vote for him!

[robbedvoter]

52. Actually RNC paid for his Californis ads; it was less obvious

Sorry to say, he fooled you then too.

[MallRat]

14. Status of Nader's ballot access.

Folks, this is serious. Even if Nader polls at 1-2%, that's going to be 1-2% too much.

Check this thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=965223&mesg_id=965223

[DeepModem Mom]

17. Thanks, MR -- Add Arkansas: Ark Supreme Ct ruled him on ballot

[RevCheesehead]

41. Add Wisconsin, too - ruling overturned last Thursday

edited for link:

http://www.jsonline.com/news/state/sep04/263190.asp

"Nader received 94,070 votes, 3.6% of those cast, in 2000, when Democrat Al Gore slipped past Republican George W. Bush to take Wisconsin by just 5,708 votes.

"Members of both major parties viewed keeping Nader off the ballot as a boon to Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry, demonstrated by the state Republican Party's filing a brief in support of placing Nader on the ballot.

"Many have viewed Nader as less of a threat to Democrats this year than in 2000, but a recent Harris Interactive poll showed Nader being the candidate of choice of 6% of those polled in Wisconsin. Earlier polls put his support as low as 1%."

[Forkboy]

15. Zogby:There is no doubt we must stir shit up.

[JI7]

16. another thing is that Nader is purposefully targeting swing states

where the winner could be decided by very few votes .

[West Coast Democrat]

18. I think there may be many Republicans voting Nader this time...

because they hate Bush* but "can't bring themselves to vote for Kerry."

I have personally witnessed that the people in my neighborhood who voted for Nader in 2000 have put out Democratic lawn signs this year. Progressives voting for Nader will be a very small contingent this year.

[The Chronicler]

20. If he is, it isn't nearly as bad as 2000.

I think Kerry will win a larger margin this time anyway.

[Mike L]

21. There is a 527 that is hitting Nader.

http://www.thenaderfactor.com/

I have read that Bastard Nader got 2.7% of the vote in 2000. He won't be on the OH ballot, but will in FL and appears to be on in MI. Wisconsin is still in litigation. Actually, MI is in litigation, but Nader has enough Republican gathered signatures to fall back on if he's thrown off the Reform Party ballot line.

[DeepModem Mom]

25. And that 527 has TV and radio ads -- do you know if they're running?

[Mike L]

37. Yes, they are running.

They started out with people who voted for Nader in 2000 saying they had made a mistake. Now they are running ads about the Repukes helping Nader.

I don't think many who voted for Nader in 2000 will repeat. I hope the people polling for Nader now are just doing so as a protest and will vote for Kerry, but you never know. Many are ultra-left ideologues. They are the neocons of the left. I don't know if they can face reality. I am sure that Nader's core supporters are actually Socialists, but that they only comprise about 20% of his current support.

[DeepModem Mom]

43. Well, that's good -- thanks --

[RevCheesehead]

44. see my post above - Nader is back ON in Wisconsin

http://www.jsonline.com/news/state/sep04/263190.asp

[Mike L]

45. Rev, that sux.

[flpoljunkie]

24. Nader's goal is to "break up the two-party system."

"Our problem is how to break up the two-party system, not how to concede to one or the other," says Nader.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/04/politics/main647061.shtml

Ralph Nader is well aware that we do not live in a parliamentary system, and we are not ever likely to have such a system. The man is destructive beyond belief; he is not deluded, though. He knows exactly what he's doing.

[ALago1]

26. Something to keep in mind

This is a national poll. The optimist in me wants to hope that those responding to this poll with Nader as their choice are doing so because they know it is strategically not harmful to do so. In other words, the respondents don't see anything wrong with voting Nader if they live in a "safe" Bush state or a "safe" Kerry state.

I still think he's not going to have the effect he had in 2000

[lefty_WOHM]

36. Interesting point... I just did a quick survey over at electoral-vote.com

Just rolling the mouse over all the states to look at the spread. The states that show the highest Nader numbers were all solid red or solid blue states. The highest I saw was 4% (VT). A few 3%'s (MT, ID, UT, CT). The highest number I saw in 'barely' or 'weak' states was 2%. And those were pretty much all low-EV states. Obviously, that's still a concern, but it changes the overall outlook somewhat.

Of course that assumes you trust the polls to which e-v.com is referring. :D

[bagnana]

27. I can't see people voting for Nader at this point voting

for Kerry if Nader abdicated. God how I despise that man. With what is at stake now, how can he continue?

[JPZenger]

28. Nader Almost off in PA.

Nader is very very close to being kicked off the ballot in PA. for a second time. The first time was not for a good reason and was overturned, but this time it is for a valid reason - fradulent petition signatures.

[Mike L]

38. Great. That will help.

I hope he is kicked off in Wisconsin too. Ohio is our biggest win yet against Nader. Too bad about MI.

[n2mark]

29. Just wondering.....

how many of the pug votes are going to Nader. If there are pugs against Bush but can't vote for Kerry, will they vote for Nader in protest?

[lefty_WOHM]

30. Didn't Nader poll around 4% in 2000

and then only got like 1%?

In the case of Repubs who are voting for Nader, a big question is what would they do if Nader weren't running? If they "can't bring themselves to vote for Kerry", would they not vote? Vote for the Libertarian candidate? I don't think we can automatically assume that all the votes currently 'for Nader' would automatically become Kerry votes.

Also, FYI, Nader's petitions are still under review in PA.

HARRISBURG, Pa. - After a week of hearings across the state on challenges to Ralph Nader's presidential nominating papers, the state Commonwealth Court said it needs more time to finish examining the tens of thousands of signatures.

The court said the review would continue through the weekend. It canceled other business scheduled for next week and said it hoped to finish the review within 10 days.

"This election case is the largest ever filed in the history of the court," G. Ronald Darlington, the court's executive administrator, said in a statement. "A total of 12 of the court's 14 judges were assigned to work on this case exclusively."

The court said Nader supporters filed about 52,000 signatures to qualify as an independent candidate for president in Pennsylvania - about twice the number he needs - but nearly 35,000 have been contested as forged or otherwise flawed.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/9813181.htm?1c

[DeepModem Mom]

33. Thanks, lefty -- and welcome to DU --

[Joe Chi Minh]

34. I have

a strong feeling that Republicans for Kerry will completely dwarf all bit-players, countrywide.

[Dawgs]

35. He may gets votes when polled, but...

anyone that would vote for Nader also hates Bush. Either that or they are just plain lost. Once these people go into the voting booth, I think many will vote for Kerry. Phone polls don't mean shit and it's easy to say Nader over the phone.

[Ranec]

42. These results may not stand up--

In the last race Nader was polling a lot better than the amount he actually got in the election. I think people are using Nader as a protest vote (What issue is he running on? Other than his ego), and so some of them will either not vote or get cold feet when in the booth.

The important number is Bush 46%. As long as that is low, (below 50 or 49%), Kerry is in the driver seat.

[brooklynite]

46. What the polls don't reflect

is the strngth of the voter's convictions. I suspect that, come election day, a good chunk of Nader supporters in battleground states are going to stare at the names on the ballot, and go to Kerry.

[Hot Water]

49. Also

The trend that has started, making Kerry such a nationally more renowned looking choice will start to put tremendous pressure on Naderites. They benefit or suffer from a Presidents policies just like everyone else.

Sooner or later it will come to the majority of them, our "priniciples" should wait for another year. That erosion I predict is going to get more and more obvious as Kerry continues on his path of dismantling Bush down to a disgrace and a mistake.

Then the new voters and overseas new ballots are going to make the 2004 election numbers for Bush look more like what his fathers were in '92, when the votes are counted. Not to worry about Nader.

[Larkspur]

50. Based on these numbers, Undecides hurt Kerry more

I'm not voting for Nader, but Undecides at 8 and Nader at 2.4 say that neither candidates have won Undecided voters vote yet.

[John_H]

53. Only tow kinds of people will vote ofr Nader.

Complete idiots and people who want America to get worse so the "backlash" might give them more power in the future. Unfortunately, there may be enough of each to give the election to the worst president in American history.