October Surprise- Osama bin Laden

[dkamin]

I received this email today from a good friend of mine, who I deem trustworthy. Can't account for his source, but he says the guy is believable as well.

"A "friend of ours", who will remain nameless, has a cousin who handles the flow of a lot of intelligence in the middle east for a branch of the U.S. armed forces.

This intelligence guy knows a Navy Seal who says his unit has Bin Laden surrounded and that teams of SEALs are rotating in and out around U.B.L,, waiting for the order to close in and capture him.

Why wait? To throw up a hail mary in late Oct. if necessary to secure a Bush victory? To keep the "war on terra" going? Because U.S. intelligence believes that keeping him pinned down is a better way to hurt Al Qaeda's command and control than allowing it to fracture and be run even more so by up-and-comers like Zarqawi?"

[kemche]

1. I don't know what to say but

...didn't the OBL's right hand Zavahari (spelling) released a video last week. If they are all surrounded then how are they releasing these videos.

KG

[Jack_Dawson]

2. Navy Seals in Pakistan?

I guess it could happen...

[Goldmund]

3. So who wants to bet?

I'll make a bet with anybody: no Osama capture before the election. If he gets caught by Nov 2nd, you win; if not, I win. I'll bet anything you want.

[Comicstripper]

22. I agree with you

It'd be suicide. Everyone was suspicious when the code orange terror level, based on old information, came up. Imagine how suspicious they'd be if bin Laden came up just before the election.

[Roland99]

4. Uhhh...

A friend of a cousin knows someone?


Uhhh...

[rocktivity]

5. The longer Bush waits, the phonier the capture will look

And is isn't as though insurgents from Kabul to Baghdad will just automatically lay down their arms and go home.

I guess the Bush regime will make a final decision pending the outcome of this week's debates.

:headbang:
rocknation

[CrowNotAngelGRL]

28. I agree

of course the reps will call Bush a hero while the rest of us will be wondering about this. I wouldn't trust it right now. :\

[CrowNotAngelGRL]

29. And since Bush

did so bad with the debate wouldn't they want him to be captured now so Bush would pull way ahead in the polls and with voting? To me, if they did that now or before the next debate it would make Bush seem like a winner.

[CrispyQ]

6. I don't think they have him nor are they close.

Everyone has a good source when they are trying to pass off stuff like this.

I think there's a good chance the October Surprise will be on our side!

[izzie]

7. You mean to tell me know one has e-mailed that out?

I do not think this can be true. They would get him then produce him just before the election. This way he may get away. I hate to also bring this up but I think Pakistan has picked up more of these people than we have. They would not shut up about it.

[central scrutinizer]

8. check his corpse for freezer burn

Maybe he was killed in Afghanistan and KKKarl Rove has him in his basement freezer, waiting for the best time.

[Fovea]

9. October Mother of all Snafus

Looking at the structure of the new AQ, I would assume that the signal for the whabbist tet offensive would logically be the capture of OBL.

What better motivation for the martyrs? What more potent way to assert the profound stupidity of our larger strategy on terror?

That is my real fear in an October surprise, that the real surprise will come from Islamists, not Rove.

[Diana52]

10. October surprise...

Well, they better hurry up! Early voting in this state, starts in 9 days!

Osama bin forgotten!

[Javaman]

11. Hmmm, I know a friend of a friend of a friend of a friend of a friend...

Oh please, untill it happens, it hasn't happened.

[eek]

13. be sure to visit and add your story:

http://www.nametheoctobersurprise.com/

[Az_lefty]

12. It wouldn't matter at this point....

Osama is old news. The scrub* could lasso the moon in Oct and it wouldn't make any difference. Kerry will continue to shine in the debates and make the shrub look foolish and juvenile.

[Walt Starr]

14. I don't buy it for a minute

Sorry, but friends of friends' cousins rarely get the story right.

[Vincardog]

17. The October Surprise is Mt. St. Helens. See God is mad at Bush

Ar you can check Florida. Can it be any clearer? I hear it from a cousin of a friend whose brother in law is connected with Gods best friend.

[ET Awful]

15. "A friend of ours?" Who the hell is he Donnie Brasco? n/t

[Guaranteed]

16. This is bullshit psyops from Karl Rove.

So many on DU are buying this, and it's really sad.

[FreakinDJ]

20. AGREED Bullshit psyc-ops

Trying to shore up the Bush faithful

....See the sky is not falling....He will do better in the next debate it is on economic issues. This is where our man Bush really excels

[H2O Man]

18. The capture of Usama bin Laden

would depend upon the coordination of one of two sources: either Pakistani or Iranian IC. Neither is particularly interested in having the USA capture UbL.

[Mr E McSquare]

19. How about.......

Isreal uses bunker buster bombs provided by U.S. free of charge
to attack Irans newculer facilities lets say oh I dont know...
how about thursday night?

[newyawker99]

21. Hi Mr E McSquare!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Mizmoon]

26. First welcome, and second I don't think this is outlandish

Why did OBL's #2 just issue a video in which for the first time he talked about others "keeping up the struggle" should he be captured or killed? It made me wonder.

[dubyaD40web]

23. OBL will never be captured alive.

EOM

[VOX]

25. My thought as well. He may be gone already.

His kidneys were known to be failing, and all the so called "al Qaeda messages" via video have been by #2 men.

[liberal N proud]

24. Oct. 31

[WilliamPitt]

27. I GOT THIS EMAIL NINE MONTHS AGO

Word for word.

[sofa king]

30. I've heard the same thing.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article5728.htm
http://www.dawn.com/2004/02/23/top1.htm

A large number of Pakistani sources have reported the same thing since roughly last fall.

It would appear that even before the United States exposed the nuclear proliferation efforts of Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, that diplomatic embarassment was used to pressure General Musharraf into moving two divisions up to the Afghanistan border.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/pakistan/khan.htm
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2002/04/18/usat-pakistan.htm
http://www.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/south/06/17/pakistan.border/

The excuse for keeping him on ice for so long--according to my shadowy sources--is that Osama and his boys apparently insist on maintaining some sort of operational control over al Qaeda, which we of course are monitoring.

This brings up an interesting point, one which should be hammered home should it happen. If that monitoring operation is in fact ongoing, and it is paying off, then it would be utterly foolish to sacrifice that political coup for mere political gain. In other words, the capture of Osama may prove to be a massive intelligence failure which may make Bush look good temporarily, but which makes America less safe.

It wouldn't be the first, either. This summer, the White House compromised an al Qaeda double agent in an attempt to justify raising the terra-o-meter to Orange Alert.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/08/08/terror.wrap/

Yet another criminally punishable act of intelligence compromise by the Bush Administration which as of yet goes unpunished.

[Tyranikal]

31. October Surprise is Zarqawi not OBL

Let's think about this, for the past 2 years, barely a mention of OBL. If * wants to make tihs truly an october surpirse, he would have been hyping non stop the danger of OBL. Instead not a peep - however noticed how zarqawi all of a sudden is a bigger figure in Iraq, running operations all over the world, even beheading hostages (how did they know this?)

They have been building up this guy Zarqawi so that come end of October they suddenly say they captured him and removed a major threat to the world.

It would have been easy for them to find a low level guy spread his picture, rumors, misinformation around and build him up to be this really dangerous monster.

I think OBL is either dead, incapacitated and we don't know where he's hiding. So why make it difficult? instead create your own monster and then capture him.

[Princess Turandot]

32. I don't think that this could have stayed a secret for so long..

and not just friend of a friend communications. Someone would have come forward, as they did in the prison scandal, believing that it was their duty to do so. And don't forget that the military is by default being criticized for not catching him, when * is criticized.

Is suicide a ticket to Hell in Islam? I wonder sometimes if he or his colleagues may have decided that he had more value as a permanent bogeyman, and either have capped him already, or as others have suggested, he died because of a lack of health support.