Latest Newsweek poll: Clark past his peak?

[Capn Sunshine]

Deans lead increases

Newsweek Poll
Jan. 8 - 9
(Previous poll, 12/18 - 19)

Dean: 24 (26)
Clark: 12 (15)
Gephardt: 12 (5)
Kerry: 11 (6)
Lieberman: 7 (7)
Sharpton: 5 (7)
Moseley Braun: 4 (1)
Edwards: 3 (5)
Kucinich: 3 (1)

[mot78]

1. Dupe

and no Clark is not past his "peak", because he hasn't peaked yet.

[xultar]

14. Shhhhhh they don't know that yet...Don't tell 'em n/t

[Cheswick2.0]

15. he has peaked

and when his handlers allow him to debate again he's gonna tank

[Bucky]

18. very nice spin

You're good. Pugnacious, but good.

[poskonig]

2. Nope.

A second place finish in NH makes this a two person race. A first place finish would give Clark the nomination, imo.

[JVS]

3. Does it make a difference how the 2nd place happens?

If Clark wins 2nd place with 14% because Kerry drops like a stone is that still an achievement?

[poskonig]

4. I am guessing it is negligible.

The Clark campaign has enough money to declare a second place finish a victory. I'm not certain how finishing 17% or 20% creates a change in the coverage.

[Kahuna]

6. Yes it does. If Clark comes in 2nd with 5% it's significant..

because three of Clark's competitors are from neighboring states. MA and VT border NH. There is one state, MA between CT and NH.

[Marian]

5. Polls are interesting, but

to be fair, we have to note from where they come; how big the sample was etc.

At this point, even if a given poll was in fact accurate (one I've yet to find!); there is just too much left to happen once there are actual primaries to make predictions now, IMHO.

This is going to go back and forth and the mainstream media is going to magnify everything!

I hope everyone watches tomorrow's debates.

:hi:

[LuminousX]

7. The real lesson of 2004

Never claim someone is imploding or peaking.

[Rowdyboy]

8. ***DING DING DING DING DING******DING DING DING DING DING DING***

aND THE wINNAH IS ....LUMINOUS OX!!!

Things change far too quickly...

[Padraig18]

9. I agree, basically.

The implodings are a bit easier to spot, however.

[mikewriter]

10. Clark has not peaked

It'll be him or Dean down the stretch

[edzontar]

11. I think not....my bet is that by Feb. this will a 2 man race

Between Clark and Dean.

They are, simply put, the two most effective candidates.

[mouse7]

12. Look at Gephardt.

Gephardt's support has more than doubled.

If Dean has a big lead on a rugby scrum well beneath him, nobody really gains momentum but Dean, though

[WI_DEM]

13. kick

eom.

[jpgpenn]

16. If Clark "peaked" what do you call Dean's falling #'s

Try a new tact, this one isn't working.

[Bucky]

17. The sampling size of this survey was less than 400. For a national poll...

That's a joke. From a universe of 40 million Democrats you're not going to get a 5% margin of error (as they claim) from a survey of 400 people. Sorry, but they've clearly done a rush job on this survey. As with the ARG poll in New Hampshire, I'm sure we'd find some sampling or screening flaw in this survey.

[RetroLounge]

19. I don't think Clark has peaked

and I don't think Dean has Tanked.

IT'S JUST A POLL!

No one's Jumping a shark just yet.

Wait for an actual vote...