Pew Poll: Bush 49%-Kerry 44% Among Likely Voters (Debate only +1 RV gain)

[papau]

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=227

Kerry Wins Debate, But Little Change in Candidate Images
Bush 49%-Kerry 44% Among Likely Voters

Released: October 4, 2004

Summary of Findings

By two-to-one, voters who watched the first presidential debate believe that John Kerry prevailed. But the widely viewed Sept. 30 showdown did not result in a sea change in opinions of the candidates. As a consequence, George W. Bush continues to have a much stronger personal image than his Democratic challenger, while voters express more confidence in Kerry on key domestic issues like the economy and health care.

The latest national poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 1-3 among 1,002 registered voters, finds Bush maintaining a 48%-41% lead over Kerry among all voters. However, the internals of the poll suggest that Bush's margin slipped somewhat over the course of the weekend, as a growing number of voters came to see Kerry as the debate winner.

When the sample is narrowed to likely voters, Bush holds a modest 49%-44% edge in voting intentions. This marks the first time in 16 years of Pew Research Center polling that a Democratic candidate has made a better showing on a likely voter base than on the basis of all registered voters. (Note: Likely voters are determined by a six-question series that measures interest in the election, intention to vote and a respondent's past voting history. For this analysis, it is assumed that 55% of the voting age population will cast a vote in November.)

The high level of Democratic motivation to vote is surprising given that only half of Democratic voters think that Kerry will win in November. By comparison, fully 85%of Republicans and even 60% of independents expect Bush will win the election. <snip>



People living in the so-called "battleground states" also apt to be certain about their choices at this point in the campaign (only 16% of those in battleground states are swing voters, compared with 24% of those in Republican states and 28% in Democratic states). <snip>


The issue of health care continues to be a strong point for John Kerry, and he also holds a small 46% to 40% lead over the president with respect to who can best improve the nation's economy. <snip>

[Child_Of_Isis]

1. Everybody is back on the job.

The polls, the media, all of them, trying to make the shrub look good.

[dennis4868]

2. Actually....

PEW is a reliable poll as far as I know.....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. You Are Correct...

We'll have to see the other polls...

[lancdem]

7. I agree

And check this line out: "However, the internals of the poll suggest that Bush's margin slipped somewhat over the course of the weekend, as a growing number of voters came to see Kerry as the debate winner."

I couldn't find the breakdown, but I imagine Bush's lead at the end of the polling was down to a couple of points. Even this poll shows Kerry has the momentum.

[Melodybe]

3. Exactly turn that shit off!

[papau]

4. Sure seems that way

:-)

We need a lot of first debate "images of Bush" ads that simply ask - 4 more years?

[papau]

5. dupe

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x967330

[West Coast Democrat]

8. Perception is everything--THE story is that Kerry is gaining in the polls

the first few polls released show a sizeable bounce for Kerry. This could very much alter upcoming perceptions about who people expect to win the election.

[lancdem]

10. True

but even the internals of this poll showed Kerry gaining on Bush through the weekend. He wasn't ahead by 5 or 7 points every day.

[Thrill]

9. I'm now convinced all these polls

are full of shit. I remember when all the other polls had Bush ahead by 6-11 points. And Pew had it Bush only ahead by two. And now the others have it Kerry ahead or tied, And the Pew Poll has Bush way ahead. Puh Please. Just show up and vote

[BlueNomad]

11. I contend and will always contend

that once Kerry starts hammering on health care, stem cell, jobs, economy, cost of education, folks' rights, energy and the cost of gas, minimum wage stuff---the base will be tightly shored up. The next few weeks will see more discussion of domestic issues than we have seen in months...and Bush is just flaming weak on that stuff ..Get folks to the polls. make sure Kerry does a gfood job on his debates and we should be fine....Don't forget that factory orders are down--unemployment claims up and friday numbers are coming...