ABC News / WaPo Poll: 51 Bush 46 Kerry

[liberalpragmatist]

Oct. 4, 2004— Sen. John Kerry's personal popularity forged into positive territory after the first presidential debate, according to a new ABC News poll. Numbers show that enthusiasm for his candidacy rose and concerns about Iraq — the debate's chief focus — advanced as an election issue.

Vote preferences are essentially unchanged, with President Bush maintaining a lead in this first ABC News tracking poll of the 2004 election — in the horse race, and on top issues and attributes alike. But enthusiasm for Bush lost ground, and Kerry, by improving his basic acceptability, clearly has revived what recently was a struggling effort.

...Still, Bush continues to lead, not only in favorability and enthusiasm but in the horse race overall: 51 percent of likely voters in this poll support Bush, 46 percent Kerry and 1 percent Ralph Nader — essentially the same as before the debate. Among the broader group of all registered voters, it's 50 percent to 45 percent to 2 percent.

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/kerry_gaining_poll_041004.html

[TexasSissy]

1. Bummer.

These polls are wacko! None of them jive with each other!

[shockingelk]

11. graph

http://fearofclowns.com/text/net_difference_poll_results/

Most are usually following the same trend. And the trend now is towards Kerry and that is the most important thing.

[Melodybe]

2. Lies, lies, lies, turn that shit off!

I know three repubs that were disgusted at Shrub and now won't vote for him, and I haven't even been to my table yet.

[Teaser]

3. It's not lies folks.

It's just fluctuation.

Read a stat book.

[Melodybe]

6. I have taken statistics, thank you, and I know that 4 out of 5 dentists

really is 4 out of 5 dentists, not 80% of dentists. I know that polling places can repoll as many times as they want to get the desired affect. Statistics basically taught me that all polls are Bull shit.

Including this one.

[Brotherjohn]

10. Exactly. Some polls show Kerry pulled even or ahead. Some show not...

... much change. NONE show Bush extending his lead. You have to take them all together, and see the big picture.

More importantly, perhaps, ALL show Kerry gained ground in likeability and leadership numbers.

This reminds me of the "non-bounce" bounce Kerry got leading up to and after the Dem Convention. Everyone was saying "no bounce no bounce no bounce", ignoring the fact that Kerry was making inroads in every area and ended up leading Bush in nearly every poll for about a month.

Then the Swift Boat Vets thing hit the airwaves.

The debates are reversing the negative effects of the SBV, and Kerry will be ahead in most polls by election time.

Yes, there's still time for Bush to pull some more dirty tricks. But Kerry will be on the air side-by-side with him two more times between now and then. And even the media now sees that the SBV thing had no basis in fact. they won't bite so easy next time (on anything Kerry OR Bush put forward). It's all about ISSUES now!

[fertilizeonarbusto]

4. Are these people on crack?

Did they see the debate? Even I was surprised at how awful * was! I've suspected that polls are crap anymore and I see I am right.

[Doosh]

5. only a 1 point kerry gain

better than nothing I suppose

[LSK]

7. remember who owns ABC = Disney

And Disney refused to distribute F911.

[fertilizeonarbusto]

8. yup!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Who controls the message, folks?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. I hold by my prediction last week

Actual numbers will not move, but underlying voter sentiment improves for Kerry....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x943560

[shockingelk]

13. it takes time for numbers to change

Few people would have got finished watching the debate and said "gee, I'm voting for Kerry now!"

But multiple illusions were shattered thurs, so I'll stick with my prediction that the debate was worth +5 points toward Kerry and away from Bush over the next week or two.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

15. Exactly. People are not like toggle switches

they don't so readily change. The setup is in place for a later switch.

[DaveinMD]

12. some polls

show a slight lead, some show a slight deficit. Its about even. Its a turnout election. Don't worry, just work.

[deadparrot]

14. I don't believe any polls, whether positive or negative for Kerry...

They didn't point out party affiliation in the poll methodology.

Really, its all about what happens in the individual states. As we saw last time, national polls really don't matter.

[papau]

16. It is a 3 day tracking poll! - up against Ras - small daily sample - and

how do they push "leaners"?

And how was the poll segmented - the really most important question.

Did they normalize by party by past voting pattern - or do we have the 40% GOP in RV that seems to be the Gallup standard this year?

Lastly - in 2000 all the polls showed Gore losing in Oct - and he won! - albeit the USSC stopped the FL statewide count so we have the selected Bush - but Gore did win as shown by the media recount Statewide in FL.

RAS

Election 2004

Date Bush Kerry
Today 48.6 46.1
Oct 3 49.0 45.4

[mvd]

17. This is just another poll

I see a trend for Kerry any way you look at them.