The election wildcard - surge of new voters

[Ugnmoose]

According to an interview with Chris Matthews I heard on The Today Show, he said it is possible that we will have as many as 10 million new voters this year as compared with 2000. He also said that the vast majority of those new voters will vote Democratic due largely to the massive Democratic GOTV efforts, especially in the swing states.

So let's do some hypothesizing here. Assume Tweety is right and assume all the votes get counted (not a sure bet). In the 2000 election cycle there were approximately 105 million votes cast. If we add another 10 million votes that brings this year's voting total to 115 million. In 2000, Gore had almost 51 million votes, Bush had 50.5 million, Nader had 2.9 million and others had about 600 thousand. I will assume that all those that voted for Gore in 2000 will vote for Kerry and all those who voted for Bush in 2000 will vote for him again (not likely, but conservative). I guesstimate that Nader will only get about 1% of the vote this time around with the remaining former Naderites voting for Kerry this year. I am further going to assume that 75% of new voters will vote for Kerry and 25% for Bush. So here goes my conservative prediction (assuming no major vote fraud):

Kerry:
Gore voters: 51.0 million
New voters: 7.5 million
Former Naderites 1.5 million
Total votes 60.0 million 52.17%

Bush:
2000 voters 50.5 million
New voters 2.5 million
Total votes 53.0 million 46.09%

Nader:
2000 left overs 1.5 million
Total votes 1.5 million 1.30%
Miscellaneous: .5 million .43%

Grand Total 115.0 million

Now if 10% of the people who voted for Bush in 2000 switch to Kerry, that adds 5 million votes to Kerry and deducts 5 million votes from Bush or a net swing of 10 million votes. Kerry then wins with 56.5% of the vote compared to 41.8% for Bush. This is the Landslide scenario.

I will gladly settle for the conservative outcome, although something in my gut tells me that the landslide is the more likely outcome. Let's all keep our fingers crossed. Alot can happen between now and November 2nd.

[Melodybe]

1. You are correct, I have personally registered 200 people.

and 95% are voting democrat.

[Arugula Latte]

10. Thank you! Thank you! Thank you!

200 voters? That is absolutely FANTASTIC!

:toast: :bounce: :headbang: :thumbsup: :kick:

By the way, what state are you in?

[fertilizeonarbusto]

2. This will be the key to the whole shebang.

Again, to flog a dead horse, this election will be like 1980 all over again-close on the (erroneous) polls until the end, when the challenger will win big. I think Tweety is actually on to something here.

[grace0418]

3. Nice work!

This is what I've been telling my nervous friends for awhile (sans the numbers of course).

I think there there will be an additional surge of voters who are registered but usually too lazy to vote. Many of them will be getting off their asses Nov. 2 and most of them aren't doing it because they love Dumbya.

[CrispyQ]

4. Bush is toast! Kerry in a landslide!

In spite of BBV!

[catmandu57]

5. Add in voters who didn't vote in 2000

and are now pissed and will be getting off their ass to go vote next month.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. A 75/25 projection in our favor is hardly conservative

It's wildly out of bounds. The GOP registration drives have been substantial, in fact more publicized than ours during the spring. They were hitting GOP friendly events like NASCAR, golf tournaments, college basketball games, etc. in droves, not to mention churches and GOP friendly businesses. I read several recent articles their early timetable was designed to have those people already registered GOP, and focus on the Republican convention, in time to vote in fall primaries and not merely the general election.

There are numerous studies that people who vote in earlier primaries participate in the general in much greater percentage than those expected to vote for the first time. That is fairly obvious. I wouldn't dare estimate higher than 55/45 in our favor among newly registered who actually vote in November, and that may be high.

My estimate continues to be each side has a reliable 44 to 45% base, Nader will receive 1.5% and we are fighting over the remaining 8.5 to 10.5% Kerry's performance in the remaining four weeks will decide the election, general preference much more vital than registration. Just do the math. In states like Ohio and Florida with massive populations and total votes, even a net 40,000 edge in our favor among new voters equals less than 1%.

[Ugnmoose]

7. Please examine the facts

First, registered Dems outnumber Repukes. Secondly, as Tweety noted, Repukes always vote in larger percentages than Dems. According to Tweety to a Repuke, voting is like religion. Thirdly, Repukes are not nearly as motivated this year as are Dems.

For an interesting article on the voter surge I recommend that you to to:
http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/100504W.shtml

[Awsi Dooger]

8. I've been examining them for more than 8 years

Literally thousands of articles, scanning obscure online websites. Read dozens of books. Admittedly, most of that research began as a tool for my particpation in a 16 man big-money betting pool on political elections. I have Excel spreadsheets flooded with real numbers of previous elections and do models similar to TIA.

Fact: this is (obviously) a biased newsgroup that overstates our advantage in registration. I will correctly use the word wildly again. I joined DU shortly before the 2002 midterms and the same claims were being made, furious Dem registration drives and voter motivation after the outrage of 2000. Meanwhile, I was studying online newspapers nationwide using the state by state links at bottom of dcpoliticalreport.com and the evidence was overwhelming the DU consensus was mistaken. There were widespread and specific examples of GOP strides in GOTV emphasis and sophistication. That is also the case this year. I attended basketball games and auto races and golf tournaments in Nevada this spring with GOP registration drives in full force, while we were not represented at all. My friends in Florida emailed me with identical reports. They have shut up about it much better than we have.

Again, this election will be decided by John Kerry and George Bush, swaying preference. My estimate is we will have a 1/2 percent net edge nationwide based on new registrations. It is a massive favorite that 1/2 percent or less will NOT decide the election. Kerry can trump that margin with one debate performance, as we witnessed last Thursday.

You need to examine facts regarding GOP motivation and loyality. Every state poll gives Kerry only a trace of Republican voters while Kerry loses 6-10% of Dems in virtually every state. And I'm dismissing the DINO states completely. We underestimate GOP motivation at our own peril. THEY WILL SHOW UP ON NOV 2.

[KittyWampus]

9. Ohio Democratic Registration Up 250%. Republican Registration Up 25%

for example.

If GOP registration had been up 225% during Primary Season... were there any news reports of this?

[IIgnoreNobody]

11. But that fact doesn't fit the OP's argument.

[cheshire]

12. Depends on which state they are in. I still thing will win.

[RevCheesehead]

13. It also has to work with the Electoral College.

Even an overwhelming popular vote does not necessarily mean the candidate will win the electoral college. A few key states could sway it one way or another.

[goclark]

14. We have registered over 820 voters

all but 18 of those are Democrats.

People stop at our table and tell us, "this fool has got to go!"

It is also picking up since the debates. People are energized and its wonderful to see.

The ROTFL event of the week end ware the teenagers and young adults and even seniors who are doing imitations of Bush! One kid of about 15 was amazing. He had us laughing until tears rolled down or faces.

So, if kids get it that Bush is toast and a laughing stock , all we need to do is GET OUT THE VOTE and keep on registering!!

Let's roll!!!

[npincus]

15. Just wondering: are these folks reflected in any recent polls?

or have they been invisible thus far?