When will Kerry's poll numbers show him winning EV's?

[shivaji]

I know debate just happened last thursday and today is only
monday, but I will breathe easy when I see Electoral Votes
for Kerry surpass shrub's.

But here are the current numbers and they look disgusting.

Kerry Bush
www.electoral-vote.com 238 297
www.electionprojection.com 243 295

www.race2004.net 165 285 88 tossup

www.spacerad.com/electoral/index.html
239 298

[Longhorn]

1. On Election Day!

Any polls before then aren't worth the cyberspace they're floating in!

[Mike L]

2. Look at WSJ's electoral college calculations if it makes you feel better.

It uses Zogby numbers. The last I saw it had the race 297-- 241, Kerry leading.

[shivaji]

4. Do you have a link to that? TIA

[Doosh]

3. Kerry has improved from 190 = 238 since the debate

really he only needs 2 states to win, florida and ohio. and he's barely behind in both.

[incapsulated]

5. We can't count on Florida

Even with a double digit lead. You know why.

[4_Legs_Good]

6. Agreed!

And I think Ohio is still gonna be very tough. I'd like to see a midwest lead soon... Very soon.

david

[Teaser]

7. State polls lag national polling.

Not sure why, but its true. So wait a week or two.

[tedoll78]

8. I suspect that we'll see by next week.

I've noticed a correlation:

When Bush is slightly leading Kerry nationwide, the swing states are statistically tied.

When Kerry is statistically tied nationwide, the swing states lean towards him.

All Kerry needs is a statistical tie. Our turnout machine will take care of the rest.