When will the press stop using "likely voters" for all their f***king poll

[LynneSin]

:mad:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1803&e=1&u=/washpost/20041005/pl_washpost/a6294_2004oct4

I'm reading this article and once again they lead the poll off with the "LIKELY VOTERS" numbers. These are the people who have voted in previous elections.

I mean, it's not like anyone new has registered to vote this year.

:mad: :mad: :grr: :mad: :mad: :grr: :mad: :mad: :grr: :mad: :mad: :grr: :mad: :mad: :grr: :mad: :mad: :grr: :mad: :mad:

Article after article said that there are record numbers of new people registering to vote this year with major focus on the swing states. Believe me, it ain't the repukes out there registering voters. Sus and I helped registered voters in Philly with ACT and we ran into the Kerry folks registering voters. In the past 2 weeks I've run into at least a dozen other voter registration groups and ALL of them have been with left-leaning organizations.

THIS IS TOTAL BULLSHIT that these articles are written with the lead poll on "Likely Voters" and buried in the article is the "Registered VOters" where Kerry is either tied or ahead in those numbers.

:mad: :mad: :grr: :mad: :mad: :grr: :mad: :mad: :grr: :mad: :mad: :grr: :mad: :mad: :grr: :mad: :mad: :grr: :mad: :mad:

[MessiahRp]

1. I have another theory

Why is Bush so close? All these polls are done via phone and likely just with people that have landlines.

Chances are they pick a lot of these names from phone books.

Why is that relevant?

Well I'm willing to say that most people under 25 don't even use land lines. We all use Cellular phones which do not get listed in phone books.

Thus a huge portion of the population that will likely vote with Kerry in a high ratio are not being counted in these polls.

To me that might make the difference.

If there's a blowout in November and the media is baffled, we may have our answer to their polling data flaws right there.

Rp

[LynneSin]

3. So true - I haven't answered my lanline phone in years

Maybe I'll turn the ringer on to see if I get polled

:crazy:

Maybe in a way I like the fact that Bush seems to be in the lead. It'll make the win even more sweetening!!

[zoeb]

5. I saw a stat. that said there 162 million cell users. n/t

[CrowNotAngelGRL]

18. Also people now days

have caller ID's and here at my family's house if we don't know a number on our ID we don't answer it and let the machine pick it up. We've had silly telemarketers and stuff so we just have learned not to bother with that since we have a machine now.

[dave123williams]

2. Right, and when will they...

...stop using 'job approval' and start showing us 'will you vote to re-elect' numbers?

[bigpathpaul]

4. But, I think that's good for us, isn't it?

If all the new Dem voters are "under the radar" then doesn't that make our victory all the sweeter? You know by the desperate look on Bush's face at every campaign rally (filled with invitation only, pre-screened folks) that he's aware of the real numbers.

-----------------------

Wake up America! It is NOT okay to have an incompetent president!




The full flyer, as well as others, can be downloaded at http://www.bigpath.net

[demokatgurrl]

24. I agree, shh, let them lull themselves into a state

of complacency, then we can POUNCE and kick their asses.

[zoeb]

6. look at Kos for a break down on the recent Gallup poll

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/4/174936/830
For the first time Gallup sampled more Dems then Reps. and they get a tie.

[Gloria]

7. Actually, likely voters are more accurate during the last weeks of a

campaign. I heard it straight from the horses mouth....Skolnick, who is now working with Kerry.

Also, Zogby has said that around Sept. 15-16, the polls start to get meaningful for this year...

[LynneSin]

8. Sure, but we haven't had this kind of voter registration since 1992

This was documented today in the NYTimes about the record number of new voters registered this year and said the last time there was a major increase in voter registration was 1992.

So maybe for 1996-2000, "Likely Voters" was an accurate poll since there seemed to be much voter apathy in the elections. But that's changed in 2004 and I would think a poll based solely on those people who have A:) voted regularly in the past and B:) Actually pick up their lan line for ever single phone call without screening through caller ID or call waiting, makes "Likely Voters" unpredictable this year.

[cally]

9. What I've heard is that the pollsters change their likely voters

assessment close to the election. Most change from whether you voted before to questions to determine how motivated you are to vote. I don't have a link but I think we will see a shift in the polls.

I think the pollsters will get it wrong this election. None really can predict what the new voters will do or if they will vote. Add in the cell phone problems and the pollsters will have much explaining to do when Kerry wins by a landslide. :evilgrin:

[Name removed]

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[LynneSin]

12. You have a very valid point

When we were registering voters we did not have anything on us that said pro-kerry (I was wearing a t-shirt that said "Christians for Kerry" but I zipped up my Eagles Grey Hoodie so no one would see it).

Everyone who registered was either independant or democrat and there were about 30 some folks we registered that day.

That's about as scientific as that "poll" they took of troops in Iraq on who they favored.

Also, voter registrations have been focused more in the larger cities where voters tend to vote democratic. Sure, we could go to Bob's 5&10 in the middle of nowhere Pennsylvania where everyone is republican and probably registered ages ago, but our time is better spent registering in the larger urban and suburban areas.

[Name removed]

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[MessiahRp]

15. What I've heard said

is that in urban areas more people talk to each other and share a tighter living space with a variety of people from all walks of life.

In rural areas you have people living as far apart as 5-10 miles, you only talk to your fellow neighbors when you head down their way and usually the talk centers around a very few topics (farming, hunting, etc.). There isn't many different types of people to adapt to having to know and there's no real way to have to talk to them if there were.

Don't know how accurate that portrayal is, but it does make a lot of sense when one notices that rural areas tend to be more bigoted and sheltered from different cultures.

Rp

[Name removed]

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[MessiahRp]

19. Not exactly what I meant..

I meant more towards gays and minorities, but I get your drift there. It was a broad statement, not a particular slam towards any rural people specifically.

I used to live in a rural area and there was a lot of bigoted views towards gays and minorities... but I can see how in some parts of urban areas that reverses itself towards caucasians.

Rp

[TexasSissy]

23. It doesn't matter. The pt., is to register new voters.

[AnIndependentTexan]

11. they will never truly show that Kerry is winning.The chimp won't allow it

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

13. Id like to see a poll that segregates by registered, and newly registered.

...voters...and a fairly big sample too.

That way the polls could maybe pulse the new registrants to see how they are going to vote.

[NightOwwl]

16. "Hordes of Voters" are registering for the first time.

From MSNBC:

Election offices were flooded with new voters in a dozen states Monday as registration deadlines offered a glimpse of what the nation might see a month from now.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6175529/

And when Kerry wins in a landslide we'll have the last laugh. :evilgrin:

[grace0418]

20. I hope this isn't tacky

but I just posted this on another thread and it really applies here as well:

Very few people actually answer their phones these days. Even those that have home phones either use caller ID or screen with their answering machines, especially at dinner time. I'm surprised when I call someone and they actually pick up anymore(unless I know they have caller ID and then they say "Hi Grace!").

So who are these pollsters polling? Starting out with "likely voters" (generally meaning people who have already voted before) it narrows to those that haven't moved since they last voted. Then it gets further whittled down to likely voters, who haven't moved, who have a landline without caller ID or an answering machine. From there it further narrows to likely voters, who haven't moved, who have a landline without caller ID or an answering machine and who will answer their phones during the dinner hour. This pretty much consists of my great aunt Rosemary...

Okay, so I'm exaggerating a bit, but if you consider the huge amount of people who won't be polled for various reasons (haven't voted in awhile or ever, only have cell phones, moved since the last election, don't answer unknown calls on their caller ID, etc.) and add that to the news of upwards of TEN MILLION new voter registrations this election (the huge majority of which are DEMOCRATS) and you have one conclusion to make...

THE POLLS ARE TOTAL BULLSHIT. Kerry is probably easily 10 points ahead of where the polls are putting him, which means Bush is probably 10 points behind. And that, my friends, is a landslide.

But let the freepers believe what they want. They'll keep busy sending stupid mail to liberals (did you read that thread?) and maybe won't get a chance to vote because they're so freaking sure of themselves.

[LynneSin]

21. Just out of curiosity

Who did your Great Aunt Rosemary say she would vote for?

[grace0418]

25. Well she's a nun, and very pro-life

on the other hand, she's Catholic... so I'm not sure whether she'll go Bush or Kerry.

[SoCalDemocrat]

22. Write the EDITORS!

Post the poll, link to where we write the editors to complain.

They should put registered voters numbers right alongside registered.

[Doohickie]

26. When will the press stop using "likely voters" for their poll?

On November 2nd.