ARG Poll: Kerry 47 Bush 44 Nader 2

[Tony_FLADEM]

[SidDithers]

1. National? State? what is it? nt.

Sid

[Dookus]

2. National

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

[SidDithers]

6. Thanks, Dookus. nt

Sid

[shivaji]

17. Since president is NOT elected on national vote, this poll is as useless

as the pimple on my butt. Theoretically dumbya could be behind 7 or 8 percent in national polls and yet win in electoral college. Hence, I pay attention to only state polls.

[pmbryant]

19. State polls are too unreliable to pay much attention to

Yes, the election isn't a national contest, unfortunately. But there are far, far more national polls than there are state polls for a given state. Even so, it can be hard to get a good feeling for the exact state of the race nationally, when it is this close. State-by-state, it is essentially impossible.

--Peter

[underpants]

3. National-and that is WITH Nader

http://americanresearchgroup.com/presballot/

48-45 without Nader

[SidDithers]

7. Thanks, underpants..nt

Sid

[demwing]

4. 'Cuase he's FREEEEEEEE

FREEEE falllliing!

[Lex]

5. Suh-weeeeeeet!

[oscar111]

8. 53 47 with undecideds breaking more for the challenger

by my amateurish calculation.
and using the no nader result as the starting point... see about three re's above for that.

[michigandem2]

9. how accurate was this poll back in 2000? anyone know? nt

[BootinUp]

15. Don't know about 2000, but

I found their polling of this years primary to be very believable.

[CityHall]

10. Probably biased

They had Kerry up continuously since April. Too good to be true.

[efhmc]

11. Probably not biased, but CORRECT all along!

[sonicx]

13. no, it's in line with other polls

basically a tie (statistically).

[DeepModem Mom]

12. kick

[Name removed]

14. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Warren DeMontague]

16. Unfortunately

For someone who, you know, might hypothetically happen to be rooting for that incompetent, korsakoff's addled pinhead in the white house, the "likely voter" analyses don't take into account new voter registrations (and I'm sorry, but the only thing that is going to keep most of those people from the polls is a series of Jeb Bush instituted roadblocks) people with cell phones, young voters, and people who -for god knows what reason- didn't vote in previous elections yet are somehow motivated to come out and vote this time. Hmmm. Any clues as to why people of a certain ideological persuasion might be a little more motivated than normal to come out and vote this year? No? Well, here's a hint:




That, right there, throws your "likely voter" analysis right out the window. Now, maybe you want to sit here and post one-line negative comments all day, but sooner or later people are gonna start to wonder what you're doing here. Do tell.

Edit: Too late!

[Bread and Circus]

18. ARG is about the only poll I trust these days...

that's due to following them in the primaries.

[shawmut]

20. great news

:kick: