Iowa is going to be a nailbiter

[windansea]

I think Gep may win it...just a hunch supported by the following

1. Direction of polling data

Who When Dean Kerry Gephardt
KCCI Jan 5-7 29 18 25
Survey USA Jan 5-7 29 21 22
Survey USA Dec 8-10 42 15 23

2. A tight three way race in notoriously volatile caucus system will see some strategic manuevering based on how the votes go down. Who will throw support which way...this is debatable

3. Last minute hurry up Harkin endorsement (Dean in another state) tells me Dean's internal numbers aren't looking good.

4. Dean's comments about special interests controlling the caucus (no matter how you spin it) may have turned off some voters.

Dean may squeek out a narrow victory...either way his frontrunner status is going to be questionable.

I think we got ourselves a horse race!!

[slinkerwink]

1. look at this photo----something tells me it's not going to be a nailbiter

;-)

[windansea]

5. pretty pic

we'll see what happens

[jadesfire]

6. ok....where did the original dean supporters go?

the one's who wanted a 'non-establishment' candidate and reveled in their independence from the beltway politics and politicians?

wait, that must have been last week.

dean and his supporters seem to have a hard time sticking with a single position on anything (see the 'dean lied on fox just now' thread...)

[slinkerwink]

10. oh, we're here all right, and not leaving soon.....we'll still be there

when Dean takes office in 2005.

[dd123]

We just need a non-establishment leader who will lead

the old establishment Dems to a better place.

[janx]

17. We're still very much here. And, unlike Kerry (in your sigline),

many of us knew that * would screw up VERY BADLY.

[jadesfire]

51. i was going to

start the entire "biden/lugar was the same thing and kerry voted for it" and "you know as well as i do that dean made statements supporting UNILATERAL U.S. ACTION at the beginning of last year";

BUT my real question is: why is it so easy for dean and his supporters to change what they say without any paradigm conflict?

'we're the outsiders- we don't want any evil "insiders," this is all about the people.'

but once gore and harkin (hello, you don't get more 'inside' than that) endorse, you guys are all:

'we're the outsiders- with gore and harkin it's locked up and they're so cool!!! oh yeah- it's all about the people'

overall, i'm not trying to be a total ass. i just get annoyed with the arrogance of dean (it is just too reminicent of our current loose cannon cowboy) and i just want to know if you have any moments where you have to rationalize the constant shifts in your candidates position (see taxes for the latest shift or maybe on how the iowa caucus' actually are important and not run by the special interests)before you have to go out and defend the constant clarifications on what he actually meant to say or how 'that was so last year' and doesn't really reflect on what he would do today.

Dean is a charismatic man. he is fun. he has done a service to the democratic party by revolutionizing the internet in campaigning (actually, I'll thank trippi for that).

He is NOT a leader of Presidential stature. He is not experienced enough to lead us into a new era of international relations. he has not presented a plan to get us out of Iraq in a sustainable manner(other than to say we can't leave), he has no plan to reduce our reliance on dirty power and has a record helping corporations avoid environmental laws (Dean Helped IBM With Environmental Regulations. “Business leaders were especially impressed with the way Dean went to bat for them if they got snarled in the state's stringent environmental regulations. ... IBM, by far the state's largest private employer, says it got kid-gloves treatment. ‘We would meet privately with him three to four times a year to discuss our issues,’ says John O'Kane, manager for government relations at IBM's Essex Junction plant, ‘and his secretary of commerce would call me once a week just to see how things were going.’” ).

yes, dean scares me. not because he is an "outsider" (i actually like outsiders), he worries me because when it comes down to it, he is the ultimate "politician." he says what the people in front of him want to hear and not what actually needs to be said and done to change America for the better.

any thoughts?

[windansea]

53. good points n/t

[AP]

7. Hey, is that a Cockroaches for Dean meeting?

That's humor, by the way. But it's the first think I think of when I think of Dean's endorsements.

[windansea]

9. we might be calling Iowa

Revenge of the Cockroaches

Not nice to call good men like Kerry and Gep bad names

:)

[Sophree]

15. AP

Did you do that Spiderman/Edwards graphic? I LOVE it! With great power comes great responsibility.

Very cool.

[FubarFly]

22. John Edwards is Spiderman?

If he walks up a wall at the next debate, he's got my vote.

;-)

[KittyWampus]

2. Agreed. Trippi Talking About Ceding Some Votes To Kerry Is A Bluff

and/or bravado, IMO.

[windansea]

3. I think Trippis running scared

and I'll bet Gep and Kerry work together somehow

[jadesfire]

8. why would either do that?

gep has NO support in New Hampshire and Kerry has too much in Iowa?

it wouldn't do either any good.

[windansea]

12. cuz they want to stop Dean

If they let him run away with it now it will be much harder

maybe someone's gonna fall on their sword for the party.

[JVS]

18. Do you have any evidence that they are cooperating?

Yes they both want to stop Dean, but that is not their goal in and of itself. Each of them wants to stop Dean in the course of gaining the nomination. I doubt that Kerry and Gephardt will work together to stop Dean just so that Clark can come and reap the rewards. There is nothing to indicate that they would prefer to lose to Clark than to Dean. Or do you have some evidence that they would?

[windansea]

20. just a guess

for either Kerry or Gep to survive they must prevent Dean from winning both Iowa and NH....Iowa is their best shot

but I could be completely wrong too!!

[Lobo_13]

21. If both groups are viable

No way they'll give up a delegate. If one can't get the 15%, well, who knows.

[windansea]

27. right

there are also a few other candidates besides the top 3 in Iowa

who knows??

[Lobo_13]

43. Don't forget undecided

not everyone has to commit to a candidate.

I'm cautiously optimistic about Dean's chances, but there is still alot of work to do in the next week to bring it home.

[windansea]

59. its the mother of all caucuses n/t

[shivaji]

37. Your hypothesis does not make any sense because..

if Kerry wanted to let Gep win in Iowa, he would'nt be spending so much time and money in Iowa.

[jadesfire]

4. the next nine days are going to be EXTREMELY interesting...

i agree. this is sooooo up in the air. the numbers have been completly fluid for the last two weeks and the obvious push up of the (expected) harkin endorsement to cover for the 'iowa caucus' are run by special interests' comment (which he just said he 'never believed' on fox news) hasn't given him much cover and was so transparent as to be lame. in addition, he's getting horrible press for campaign tricks. now, i personally believe that most of these things are being advanced by individuals and NOT the campaign; the image that it portrays is that the dean campaign can't reign it's supporters in and they come off looking amaturish and untrustworthy.

finally, and most importantly, iowans are notorious for holding out on their final decision until they get to the caucus site. 2nd choices are going to be key. those whose candidates can't make the 15% thresh hold are going to go somewhere else and the majority will not go to dean....

like i said, interesting.

[mzmolly]

11. Your right. Dean does not have Iowa in the bag. I don't agree with your

analysis. But, I do agree it's up in the air. They say 2nd choices are very important in a Caucaus situation, and Gep has very experienced people on the ground.

However, Dean did not expect to win Iowa initially, so if he comes out in second place, it's still a win.

[windansea]

14. that's basically my "guess"

Deans going down..Gep going up...Kerry is hanging in there and stumping with TED...Dean has dissed them all...

we're playing hardball now

[mzmolly]

19. I disagree that Dean is going down. I think he'll win, I just don't think

it's a given.

My "guess" is that Clark and Kerry are going to battle soon for second place.

[DancingBear]

16. Hey, the spin is supposed to start AFTER the caucus

"However, Dean did not expect to win Iowa initially"

C'mon! Dean folks have been touting victory in Iowa since man invented fire.

If he comes in second place that is a HUGE loss, and everyone knows it.

Especially those cranky little scamps up in NH. :)

[Lobo_13]

13. It's been a nailbiter for months.

No one ever said Iowa is a lock. Gep's union support is huge, so it's an uphill battle. As long as Gep doesn't blow out the caucus, Dean will be fine.

[windansea]

23. I saw these predictions in another thread here

Dean . Gep. . Kerry. smart aleck . other guesses
35% . . 32% . . 15% . . Bucky (old prediction)
42%. . 28%. . 16%. . Bucky (new prediction)
33% . . 35% . . 14% . . Kathleen04 (old)
40% . . 36% . . 16% . . Kathleen04 (new)
32% . . 34% . . 16% . . Texas Patriot
32% . . 21% . . 22% . . Deesh
35% . . 25% . . 15% . . Daboy
37% . . 34% . . 21% . . Goobergunch (old)
40% . . 38% . . 18% . . Goobergunch (new)
52% . . 28% . . 20% . . H Fishbine
50% . . 34% . . 16% . . Padraig18
30% . . 15% . . 15% . . Paulie (plus 20% for Kucinich)
21% . . 23% . . 19% . . Chimpymustgo
40% . . 36%. . . 8% . . YellowDawgDem
32% . . 28% . . 22% . . Cryingshame
22% . . 24% . . 16% . . Anti-Bush (plus 20% for Edwards)
41% . . 29% . . 15% . . TeDoll78
25% . . 28% . . 19% . . BHunt70
32% . . 28% . . 25% . . SlinkerWink
32% . . 23% . . 19% . . Ozone Man
31% . . 19% . . 21% . . Ghost Consul
47% . . 21% . . 15% . . Askew (plus 17% for Edwards)
42% . . 30% . . 13% . . CynicalSOB1
35% . . 26% . . 18% . . WI Dem
-0- . . 35% . . 25% . . AreWeThereYet (plus 25% for Edwards)
1st . . 2nd . . -0- . . Morgan2

[Lobo_13]

24. What do they all have in common?

They aren't in IA and don't have a feel of the landscape.

I'm surprised at the outrageously optimistic expectations everyone here has about their candidate.

[JVS]

25. Some of the projections are not the vote numbers but the delagate %

[iowapeacechief]

54. No such thing...

...as "vote numbers" in the Iowa caucuses. Only delegates count.

[windansea]

58. correct n/t

[windansea]

26. me too

just responding to you post that "no one" ever said it was a lock

:)

[Lobo_13]

28. then I'll qualify

no one that actually knows about what's going on.

[windansea]

33. heh heh

ok :thumbsup:

[jadesfire]

41. nicely put

[Padraig18]

29. One word: Blowout.

The ONLY thing that might be close is which candidate finishes second, and which third.

Take it to the bank.

[JVS]

30. Please elaborate. I'm trying to see how this would happen/

[Padraig18]

32. Gut feeling, plus some info.

Dean just got the Harkin endorsement, Gore has spent two days campaigning for him, and friends in Iowa with the Dean campaign tell me that their internal polling shows Dean's numbers substantially above the published polls (5-8% above) and rising.

Seems pretty simple to me. :)

[Lobo_13]

45. To paraphrase the wolf

"Let's not start sucking each other's dicks just yet."

There's a whole lot of work to do, and polls don't mean diddly if you can't get the people out to caucus.

[Name removed]

31. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Padraig18]

34. I stll am.

I'm still quite nice, DB, and quite rational. The last few days have been an "I push back when pushed" reaction, that's all; after 2 solid months of 'taking it and smiling', I needed to let go, especially against a few VERY obnoxious ass hats. Didn't want to give the mistaken impression that I don't know how to fight back, and savagely so, if neccessary. :hi:

[windansea]

35. Padraig

Politics is a very serious game...I admire your support for your candidate a lot...just so you know..when I first got here and was critical of Dean...I got response like "Dean is the nomineee...deal with it"

I prefaced this post by saying it was my hunch...and try to be civil in my responses...

anyway good luck...and ABB

:dem:

[Padraig18]

36. I'm sorry.

I didn't mean to be uncivil to you, honestly. You're an admirable advocate for your candidate, and are not among the 'ass hats' to whom I referred. :hi::)

[windansea]

38. ok cool

thanks for that!

:toast:

[Padraig18]

40. YW!

Slainte! :toast:

[DancingBear]

39. Good to hear!

I hope I convinced the mod who deleted my joshin' post to you. :)

[Padraig18]

42. I hope so, too.

I know it was only teasing. :hug: Let me know if I can help. :hi:

[DancingBear]

49. Will do

thanks :hug:

[jburton]

44. Not a nailbiter at all

My prediction: Sharpton will do poorly. As for the top three, I'm keeping it a secret.

:crazy:

[Padraig18]

47. Hehe!

A bit of levity is always welcome. :)

[jadesfire]

52. i like that

an honest ( and funny ) answer.

[mikewriter]

46. Horse race indeed

I think Gep in Iowa too. It's his home away from home and he has a big union following out there. Dean will come in a close second and then win in a landslide in NH.

[mikewriter]

48. Dean's gaffs won't hurt him

but I don't think the Harkins endorsement, though helpful overall, will help him too much for the Iowa vote.

[Lobo_13]

50. Flip that

Harkin is unto a god in this state. It won't help much nationwide, but it's a big deal in IA.

[iowapeacechief]

55. Amen to that!

Too bad he's not the candidate...

[windansea]

56. so true!

[windansea]

57. kick

:dem:

[oasis]

60. kick