Is this a current/accurate reflection of the electoral vote?

[Enrico]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

I don't get it, I've been keeping my eye on this site, and even now that Kerry is tied in national polls, he's getting his ass kicked in the electoral college... wassup?

[mzmolly]

1. The polling on this site is using data from Rassmussen and those

state polls began on 9/27 and ended on 10/2 ... I think as time goes by we'll be in better shape.

Also some of the polls are from just after the R convention. :shrug:

[ComerPerro]

2. So many complications

With the electoral college, you could win 100% of the vote in certain states, but it still wouldn't matter if you managed to lose important states by even a razor-thin margin.

You could win every blue state 90-10, and only lose red states 49-51, and still lose the election on electoral votes despite winning the popular vote by several million.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

3. In a word: No

In several words, they rely in part upon Strategic Vision, which is a Republican pollster. They also have been using Gallup and Rasmussen.

[geek tragedy]

4. State polls lag behind national ones

[sandnsea]

5. No

First, he's a Republican and admits it. He's always been a teensy bit to the right on his projections in my opinion. It appears to be getting much worse. FL, OH & PA aren't leaning Bush at all and Wisconsin certainly isn't definitely Bush. Somebody said he changed his methodology after the debate to use the last 3 polls instead of just the most recent one. I think this site has lost all credibility. It doesn't match any other electoral vote I've seen.

[SidDithers]

8. Actually, he's an admitted Democrat...

"Not a lot of change in the state polls right now. I installed new software yesterday to average recent polls per state going back 30 days. There was a create hue and cry that this was a bad thing because the race is in such a state a flux that polls that old are meaningless. In the middle of the day I changed the look-back parameter to 7 days, so now only polls within the past week are used. I agree with many readers that 30 days is too much. If I were a Republican, I would have said "I am going to stay the course, even though I am wrong." Fortunately, I am a Democrat so I can flip-flop all I want. Let's see how a 7-day look-back window works. The idea was to prevent the map from changing wildly every day. Averaging introduces some stability, but also introduces lag in responding to current events. Finding the right parameter might be tricky."

That said, he does use SUSA and Stretegic Vision, both of which tend to skew R.

Sid

[sandnsea]

19. My mistake

I was thinking of electionprojection.com. Sorry. I still don't think electoral-vote has ever been terribly accurate though. Maybe it's the polls he chooses to use.

[SidDithers]

20. Yup, I agree with you there...

:toast:

Sid

[Name removed]

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[Liberal Gramma]

15. Link?

[Name removed]

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[PermanentRevolution]

11. Actually...

He's said from the beginning that he's a Kerry supporter. When he used only the most recent poll, DUers bitched that it was a flawed methodology. So now he's using a three-poll rolling average, and people are still bitching. Post-debate state polls still haven't happened, and now that he's averaging, it's gonna take three post-debate polls to remove any pre-debate ones from the average. Give it time for the numbers to catch up. I'm not saying he's accurately predicting the EC right now, but I don't think he's deliberately trying to skew anything for Bush.

[Name removed]

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[DemocratSinceBirth]

Some Weight Their Polls For Party I D .... Some Don't....

Many people are ashamed to admit to being Republican after Bush's abysmal debate performance...

Do you blame them?

[Grown2Hate]

16. Does anyone know that website that shows a map of the US

and it shows the electoral college breakdowns for every US Presidential race in history? Any help is appreciated. Thanks.

[The Great Escape]

7. Malloy Said That CNN Had An Electoral Map

the only CNN I have watched in past 6 months has been the aftermath of the Bush Allawi Rose Garden press conference. I guess CNN called the election a week or two ago.

[MallRat]

9. Changed methodology. Now averaging together 3 polls per state.

At any given time, at least one of those polls in each state is from a conservative polling group (Strategic Vision, Rasmussen), so unless the Votemaster changes his ways, expect electoral-vote.com to skew towards Bush from now until Election Day.

It's mindboggling, particularly when you consider that the guy running the site is a Kerry supporter.

-MR

[Name removed]

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[lsuguy]

13. State-level polls almost always lag national ones

Watch for the state level polls to begin to change this week. Having watched the two kinds of polls interact for a long time, I'd guess that unless something major changes, we'll see electoral college projections show a very close race by end of week, perhaps even with Kerry moving ahead because of gains in Ohio (most likely) and perhaps Florida.

[DeepModem Mom]

14. Hope so, Isuguy -- welcome to DU!

[michigandem2]

17. MICHIGAN IS NOT A TIE...

I think Kerry had an 8 pt lead in some other poll ARG I think??? Kerry might not have an 8pt lead but he is ahead of bush...

[Bucky]

21. Don't pay attn to EC maps until October 15th (bin Laden's capture day)

Right now those numbers mean nothing. The keys remain Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Everything else is parsley