10/5 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 284 EV, 75% PROB, 50.7% OF THE VOTE

[TruthIsAll]

The State EV Model Kerry Win probability is now confirmed by the 9 Independent National Poll Group AVERAGE model, thanks to ARG, who have Kerry ahead 48-45.

The Independent Pollster Win Probability of 71% (the probability Kerry will get a majority of the popular vote) is REAL CLOSE to the state EV model of 75%, the percentage of election trials won by Kerry (over 270 EV) in 5000 Monte Carlo simulations.

Watch for ARG's state polls to come out soon. As will Zogby's.
They'll both give Kerry a nice EV bounce from here.

320 EV's anyone?

Some more proof of a Mediawhore bias. FOX and ABC show Bush approval up to 53%, a 3% move. They know he can't claim to win the election if he is UNDER 50% approval. No one has EVER won the White House with less than 50% approval. FOX and ABC are not about to let him fall below the Mendoza line now, with just one month to go.

Thinking Diebold.

Meanwhile, CBS and Gallup has Bush approval DOWN 2% to 47-48%.


http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[papau]

1. ABC News tracking poll differs from Ras - Bush gains a point in spread!

Vote Preference Among Likely Voters
Bush Kerry Nader
10/4 51% 45 1
10/3 51 46 1

[Clinton Crusader]

2. TIA, is it me or is the prob. going down everyday? nt

:kick:

[TruthIsAll]

3. Kerry prob has dropped a little due to laggard state polls

which have Bush leading in some key battleground states.
See the chart.

Wait for Zogby and ARG.

[Hamlette]

4. Bless you TIA I look for your hopefull posts everyday!

and spread the word to all I know! You keep us charged!!!!!