ABC/WaPo Tracking Poll: * Sinking Like a Rock! (LV Bush 49% Kerry 47%)

[tritsofme]

RV has Bush 50% Kerry 45%

Was Bush 51% Kerry 45% yesterday among LV.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/2004tracking/track100604.html

[nine30]

1. Sinking, but not like a rock..

..the question is why does he still have a lead despite his abysmal
performance in the debates, and when the other polls have him tied or slightly behind Kerry.

[tritsofme]

2. This poll is a three day rolling average like Rasmussen

And to go from leading 51-45 to only leading 49-47% is huge.

[bush equals idiot]

5. FORGET likely voters.

Those exit poll numbers from the 2000 election will be as useless as an ashtray on a motorcycle. Not even close.

[Beetwasher]

3. This Poll Oversamples Repubs By About 8 Points I Think

n/t

[Texas_Dem]

4. Give it time. All that hot air Clutch and Shrub blow out

keeps them from falling so fast.

[sonicx]

6. why are we doing better in LV?

usually it's the opposite.

[tritsofme]

7. Dems are more fired up

pugs are demoralized.

Wouldn't you be after those debates?

[West Coast Democrat]

8. I think this is the same tracking poll I checked regularly in 2000

Gore rarely came within 3 pts on any given day. The week before the election, Bush* was up by 3-4 pts.

[nixonwasbetterthanW]

9. a this-can't-be-right epiphany

If you look way down in the internals, there's a question about whether it's your first time voting in the presidential election. They get 1% saying yes, 99% saying they've voted before. So the "likely voter" pool, it appears, is limited just about exclusively to those who've actually voted. To the extent that new voters actually show up at the polls, the LV weighting just can't be true.

[faithnotgreed]

10. yes - thats the criteria for lv. and yes - it seems clear the lv numbers

just arent going to match up to actual numbers on 11/2. you not only have millions of new registrants but there is new fire for the millions already registered who just havent voted, for any number of reasons, in the past. lots of interest all the way around for voting this year.

look at the ratings for the presidential debate. pretty amazing 62.5 million people

[tritsofme]

11. Every pollster's criteria for LV is different,

If a pollster was setting up a good LV model, they wouldn't make voting in the last election the only criteria.

[TexasSissy]

12. That's not sinking like a rock.

It's good. But not great. It's going the right direction, though.