Am I the only one who thinks they're not gonna nab Osama?

[ALago1]

Other than having a firm belief that the guy is dead already, I tend to think that if they had Osama or knew where he was for easy capture, they would have used that card already and rode that wave into the Repub. convention and debates. I mean, Bush could have easily manipulated public opinion by saying "The world is now safer with Osama bin Laden gone" (which is only marginally true imo).

Plus, only the most naive of the naive would not suspect a capture around this time to be pure political exploitation of 9/11. It could potentially backfire bigtime - allowing Kerry to claim that taking 3 years to catch a terror mastermind is not all that impressive.

Any thoughts?

[wryter2000]

1. I don't think they have him...dead or alive

I think if they had him, they would have already pulled him out of the hat.

[Perky]

4. They do noit have him

If they did his lientent awould have said so.


Will they grab him? I think it is too late.... It would surely backfire on them as a shameless ruse.


Besides they need Osama on the lam in order to continure to econstruct the middle east

[roseBudd]

12. I don't think they will get him

The terrain is much too difficult

and reward money doesn't talk in Afghanistan

[Jack from Charlotte]

17. If he's found dead, Check his skin for freezer burns.

[benburch]

2. I agree...

We probably blasted him into atoms at Tora Bora.

And if we didn't, Bush, Cheney, and the other stooges could only capture him by accident; They are much too incompetent to pull it off intentionally.

[LisaLynne]

3. I agree.

I don't think they have him. He's either dead or they just have no idea where he is.

[Walt Starr]

5. If they were going to trot him out, they would've done it already

I see no Osama bin Surprisin' this October.

Perhaps next March after John Kerry gets a handle on the mess we're in.

[MrBenchley]

6. I think Kerry whizzed on the plan

if they had him....after that debate, it will seem as if pResident Twitchy didn't even try to catch Osama for three years...until Kerry humiliated the unelected drunk on TV....

[ALago1]

7. I think that too

Kerry pretty much innoculated himself by making any capture seem more suspicious.

[MrBenchley]

29. Check THIS out....

WOLF BLITZER: Well, when you say 75 percent, of how many leaders are we talking -- 75 percent of a quantity of what? 30, 25?
RICE: Of its known leadership.
BLITZER: But how many...
RICE: I would suspect that that's in the tens to hundreds -- tens to 100.

So when Bush et. al say "75 percent of the al-Qaeda known leadership" they could mean as few as eight people. But more to the point -- it's easy to understand why you would nead to employ estimation when doing quantitative measures of al-Qaeda. But how could the number of known al-Qaeda leaders possibly be an estimate? If Rice knows anything about al-Qaeda it should be how many al-Qaeda leaders she knows about. Does she know of ten, or does she know of 100?"

http://yglesias.typepad.com/matthew/2004/10/75_percent_of_w.html

[indie_voter]

8. I agree

OBL is a dangerous zealot protected by dangerous zealots. He isn't going to die quietly (unless he died in the mountains in Tora Bora). His bodyguards aren't going to let him be captured, makes no sense, they worship him.

Many of the Pakistanis feel he is a hero, including those in the military.

If OBL was sitting on ice so to speak, why would al qaeda allow him to be used by people they consider infidels? Even to help re-elect Bush? It makes no sense to me at all.

I think they did try to capture him before the convention (remember all that flurry of activity by the Pakistan army?) but came up empty handed.

[charlyvi]

9. I'm with you.

I don't think they have him, and I don't think they will get him by November 2. Mainly, I don't think Pakistan wants Bush* to win. They are on record as saying the Iraq War was a big mistake; I don't think the Pakistani Govt wants to play any more of a poodle to shrub than it already has--there are many OBL supporters in that country. Too politically dicey for the Pakistani powers that be to give up OBL to someone the populace hates (shrub).

In fact, I think that's the biggest disaster of shrub foreign policy--no governments want to cooperate with us, even if it's in their own best interest, because their people hate shrub so much it would cost them too much politically.

WE NEED ADULTS BACK IN CHARGE OF OUR FOREIGN POLICY!

[seabeyond]

10. alago, would be the biggest mistake for bushco to bring out

obl. too many people will see it in disgust at this point. especially after listening to cheney and bush. it would take them under. no one would believe it just happened. al would call it staged

i dont think it would work

and the dems, say good, about damn time. sorry you had to play a game with something so important for all of us as a nation.

[dogtag]

11. If they had him on ice or even cornered somewhere and

planning to produce him before the election, the would be TALKING about him all the time. AND they are not. He was mentioned once during the entire terra, terra, terra convention. Think about it.

[drumwolf]

13. Wow. I didn't realize just how soon the election is until this thread.

I agree, if they'd been planning an Osama Surprise, at the very least we would have already started hearing rumors by today.

He's either dead or well-hidden by the tribesmen in Pakistan's lawless NW Frontier area. Even if Musharraf knew for sure where OBL was in that area, it would be very difficult for him to go in and get Osama without risking an uprising and coup -- something it is not in our own interests to risk.

[CrispyQ]

14. I agree, they don't have him.

Whereas I put NOTHING past this administration, they are also INCOMPETENT BEYOND BELIEF!!

If they had him, they would have trotted him out by now.

[Awsi Dooger]

15. No pre-election terrorist strike and no Bin Laden, who is cave dust

I actually have wagers on both of those predictions with a conspiracy fanatic here in Las Vegas.

No videotape in 3+ years means no Bin Laden, IMO. He knows one image with a bold pronouncement and date verification could inspire thousands. I know a few audio tapes have supposedly been authenticated, but my handicapping instincts just don't buy it.

[MasonJar]

16. It would be very dangerous for the American citizens anywhere

in the world if OBL is captured while there is so much hate among the Muslims. Bush has pretty much iced travel. I do not think that the Bushites have read enough of The Prince; it clearly states that if a leader conquers another country that he needs to go live there to keep it under control. Bush should go now.

[elperromagico]

18. Catching Osama was never the goal.

Bush has said he isn't concerned about Osama, and for once I believe him. The ultimate goal of this Administration is dominance of the Middle East, with Iraq as the base of power. Of course, with Iraq in shambles, that goal becomes considerably more difficult.

[bush equals idiot]

19. Thanks to Kerry

That debate made that liklihood that anything remotely resembling OBL, or concocted DNA, would infuriate the American people now. They would be livid that just in time for the election, he can magically be found.

It would be his worst mistake ever.


Without question, that would have been just the opposite before Thursday.

[drumwolf]

20. yeah -- I'm impressed with Kerry

His biggest weakness was being seen as softer than Bush on terrorism, and he really managed to deal with that head-on during the debates.

[LisaL]

21. I think Osama is dead.

Otherwise, where are the tapes of him?
He used to make those pretty often, and how long has it been since the last one?

[goodboy]

22. because * has inflamed hatred for the US with his 'policies'

OBL is irrelevant. There are now 10,000 OBL's.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

23. I think if they had him

they'd have pulled him out RIGHT before the Dem convention. After all we do know they had an order out to find as many AQ members as possible and PREFERABLY towards the end of July. For THAT reason.

Why would they give up an opportunity to completely overshadow the Dem convention and then crow about it, building up a bit of voter momentum and possibly deflating them Dems from July to November?

But then my liberal friend thinks they are going to pull something VERY VERY close to November 2, as in November 1, when there isn't enough time for us and/or the media to pull the story apart.

But just enough time to possibly influence votes. I still think that's a lousy strategy too, as most people have made up their minds at that point.

[rinsd]

24. If Osama is captured or brought in dead.....

...then forget about it......the election will be over.

Kerry claiming that would just make him seem petty.

That said I also think he's dead. And our chances of proving such are zero. He is just to useful as a figurehead/myth.

[grace0418]

25. I'm not so sure

Maybe they would have a body double anyway, especially if they "captured" him "dead."

And it could backfire (I sure hope it would) but:

A) there ARE a lot of naive people out there

B) there are a lot of people that would know it was politically motivated in their heart of hearts, but would still welcome a reason to support their hero Dumbya

C) the media speculation would drown out campaigning for at least a week. It could be just the smokescreen the GOP needs to work their magic on the polls, the ballots, etc. with less than a month to go.

Don't discount the OBL possibilty, it could happen.

[MazeRat7]

26. They wont get him any time soon...

Take the Eric Rudolph case as an example. He "vanished" into the mountains and eluded police and FBI for about 5 years. This was here in the US in a mountain range that is eclipsed by the vastness of the Tora Bora range.

It truly is a needle in a haystack. The closest analogy I can give is this: Say someone paints a fist size rock blue or red and tells you they are going to "toss it" somewhere for you to find. The difference between OBL and Rudolph is like tossing that rock into the Grand Canyon vs tossing it somewhere like a local state park.

Anyway, my point being the scales are vastly different so I suspect it will be years before anyone "captures" OBL.

Just my 2 cents.

MZr7

[NEDem]

27. I thought they were going to

announce it today.

The way they were pressing the 'significant speech' this morning, which turned out to be nothing more than a revamped stump speech, I thought for sure today was the day. Now I don't think it will happen, but I still wouldn't put it past these criminals to do it.

[JPace]

28. I don't think they have him, but....

if they do they will not present him to the
nation until the last week. Reason..to make
sure the positive momentum the repugs would
get out of this would not wear off before
the election. Remember Saddam gave them a
lift for less than a week, then it was ho hum...
on to other things.

[FunBobbyMucha]

30. "IF" I were them, after I threw up in my mouth,

and if we had Osama, I'd plunk him down for edification the weekend before the election, knowing the Democrats couldn't possibly mount a comeback with only hours to spare before the election. Anybody who's ever tried to sweep in during the last minute of an Ebay auction would probably agree with this strategy.

Personally, as a nurse, it's hard for me to imagine a dialysis patient surviving on the run in caves for this long. Even a stockpile of the necessary medications and dialysis filters could only last so long. So if he made it back to what amounts to "civilization" over there, maybe he's alive, but if not, he's buried deep and anonymously, with as few of his lieutenants as possible even knowing he's gone, to keep the legend alive.