10/6 ELECTION MODEL: A GRAPHIC TOUR OF KERRY'S PROGRESS

[TruthIsAll]

Let’s track Kerry’s progress graphically:

As of tonight:

He’s projected to win with 292EV. He has an 86% win probability:


He’s projected to win 50.64% of the popular vote:


The base case projection has him winning 60% of the undecided voters. Look at how his projected EV moves if he gets 50, 55, 60, 67 or 75%:


Check where he stands in the Battleground states:


And here are the current probabilities of winning them:


Here’s Kerry’s average vs. Bush for the Independent National pollsters (Zogby, Harris, ARG, IBD, The Economist, ICG, IBD/CSM, Quinnipiac, Pew)..


Here are the latest Corporate and Independent National polls:



Bush job approval is UNDER 50%. No candidate has ever won the presidency with an approval rating below the Mendoza line.


This chart shows that if Kerry has a 51%-49% average lead in 9 polls, his probability of winning is much higher than if he had the same 51%-49% lead in just ONE poll. Stands to reason for there is much tighter Margin of Error in a poll group. Nine polls of 1000 people is equivalent to ONE poll of 9000. The MoE for nine polls is 1.03%, compared to 3.10% for one poll of 1000.



The Monte Carlo simulation is the methodology used to calculate the probability of a Kerry win based on the probability of winning each state. Five thousand trial elections in the simulation produce a certain number (X) of Kerry wins.

His probability of winning (P) is: P = X/5000.
His average electoral vote in today’s 5000 trials is 292.
His probability of a win is P = 86% since he won 4292 of the 5000 trials (he won at least 270 EV's).

This chart shows the trial outcomes..


As you can see from the next chart, most of the Monte Carlo simulation outcomes fall between 280 and 300 EV’s. He will most likely get 292.



Want more of this?
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Mortos]

1. I really really believe

we are going to win this big. No challenges, no objection just a big night for John Kerry and the Democratic Party. We will also win the Senate back. Mark it.

[wysi]

2. In reading Big Dog's book...

... I learned that undecideds usually go quite heavily toward the challenger (where there is one). I'm assuming that he's right about this? What are the data like?

[whistle]

3. What will be the coat tail effects for a large win by Kerry among other

....democrats running for office this election?

[GeorgeBushytail]

4. Any polls attempting to account for newly registered voters?

[TruthIsAll]

5. Polls are of two types: Registered (RV) and Likely (LV)

There has been no clear disticyion between them recently. You would think the RVs would be better for the Dems.

In any case, Kerry will get most (65-80%) of the undecided/other vote, which will put him in the WH. I use 60% as the base case for my model to be conservative.

This could turn into a landslide, if the BIG MO keeps working.