Rasmussen National Numbers and his Explanation (Looks Good)

[louis c]

Rasmussen's 3 day national tracking polls have Kerry and Bush nearly dead even. Bush is at 47.2% to Kerry at 46.9%.

Kerry is even closer when leaners are added, Bush 48.4% to Kerry's 48.3%.

For the first time since the RNC, Kerry's favorable rating is higher than Bush's at 51.3% to 51.0%. Kerry's unfavorable is also lower than Bush's at 47.3% for Kerry to 47.7% for Bush.

Bush's positives for his handling of Iraq are now at 42%, down from 46% two weeks ago. Those voters who feel he is handling that issue poorly has risen from 41% two weeks ago to 45% today.

Today, 41% of voters say that Bush is doing a good or excellent job of handling the economy, down from 44% a week ago. 42% give Bush poor marks on the economy, that's up from 40% a week ago.

The same voters think the country is on the wrong track by a 54% t0 41% margin.

To verify these numbers, check how close these results are to Zogby's latest data.

Rasmussen
http://www.rasmussenreports.com

Zogby
http://www.zogby.com/news/readnews.dbm?ID=874

John Zogby's evaluation on October 4 can be obtained by the link provided. However, Scott Rasmussen's update today is on his Premium Site, so I will provide it here, word for word.

Scott's Page--Oct. 6, 2004---The Kerry Bounce---"Last week's Presidential debate is having a growing impact on the campaign. Initially, the result was simply to increase the enthusiasm and confidence of the Democratic base. While that was important to Kerry, it did not alter the contours of the race."

"In recent days, however, there is evidence that some people are reevaluating President Bush. Today's updates show declining ratings for the President's handling of Iraq and the Economy. That is far more dangerous to the President than ab increase in enthusiasm among Democrats. It should be of a concern to the Bush campaign team as well as to those who support the President."

"A week ago, before the first debate, John Kerry needed to quickly change the dynamics of the campaign or he would face almost certain defeat. He succeeded. Now, the race is a toss-up and the status quo campaign probably favors the challenger."

"The question today is whether the President can once again change the dynamics of the race. If nothing else, it will certainly make Friday night's debate more interesting."

So, DUers, look at how similar the views are of independent (non-corporate) pollsters John Zogby (the Democrat) and Scott Rasmussen (the Republican). I happen to agree with both of them.

[skooooo]

1. BWAHAHAHAHAHA

"In recent days, however, there is evidence that some people are reevaluating President Bush. Today's updates show declining ratings for the President's handling of Iraq and the Economy. That is far more dangerous to the President than ab increase in enthusiasm among Democrats. It should be of a concern to the Bush campaign team as well as to those who support the President."

[louis c]

2. Sorry for the type-o

an not ab.

[louis c]

5. kick

[GDoyle]

3. Anyone got the state tracking numbers from Rasmussen?

Just curious.

GDoyle

[louis c]

4. Ya.

I'm not good at putting all those DU numbers into a link.

I posted earlier on this site, and will kick at this time, 8:32 PM EDT. Look at it then.

by the way Minn wasn't availabble at that time, but it is unchanged at +3 for Kerry.

[David Zephyr]

6. Kerry Is Closing!

He's is a closer indeed.

[louis c]

7. Kick for AM

[Nightjock]

8. Thanks Louis

I do not believe in the accuracy of any polls-but I like anything that looks good for Kerry.
Personally I believe it will be a landslide for JK.

[BUSHOUT]

9. It's a trend. It will get better, last two days have been great. n/t

[DemocracyInaction]

10. question, question, question

Something I keep wondering about. Obviously there are a whole list of red states where Bush is winning by a blowout (20-30 points). Now, wouldn't that count for a big chunk of his support numbers?? We don't have a lot of states were Kerry is winning that big. What I'm trying to ask (I know this is as clear as mud) is: Don't those close stats really indicate that outside those 'big red' states, Bush isn't doing that well??? We know those type of red states are lost anyways, so I would think it's his shrinking support in the toss up states that have to be of real concern for him.

[louis c]

12. NY and Cal.

Kerry's numbers are very good in NY and California. Those large populations, as well as huge leads in New England (except NH) and Illinois, account for the offsetting of the less populated southern and Western "Red States".

[cthrumatrix]

11. so goo to see mainstream news reporting the decline fo awol....