Ohio now 'Weak Kerry', pushes Kerry's EC number to 280! ?

[MsMagnificent]

Somebody double check me please... I can't believe what I'm seeing!

Where the states stand now:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/


Electoral vote calculator:

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ev/


*waiting with bated breath*



******Edit: Fixed typo

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. Arkansas is wrong

sorry, but I live in the most conservative section, and the Kerry signs are all around. I think AR could go either way.

[Ediacara]

2. Wisconsin is outawack on that site

He uses Strategic Vision polls, although to his credit, he identifies them as a GOP pollster.... But he shouldn't use them....

Michigan and New Hampshire are likely Kerry wins, as is Pennsylvania, and Kerry has a great chance in Florida, Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, Arkansas, and Virginia.

[clydefrand]

10. Right on, Virginia!

[wuushew]

3. I still have major problems with their predictions

MI, PA and WI should all be at least barely Kerry

[TruthIsAll]

4. Election Model updated: Kerry at 292 EV with an 86% win probability.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

On Edit: Its 86% not 77%. My bad. The upload didn't go thru as I thought it did. A-OK now.

[jefferson_dem]

8. Just a note of thanks for your ace analyses, graphs, and charts.

Great stuff.

:yourock:

[TimeToGo]

5. I just don' t think that is up to date

[jefferson_dem]

6. It should be better than that even. FL will flip too. Try a hefty 307!

[bigbubbabill]

7. YEAH!

[newyawker99]

16. Hi bigbubbabill!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Indie Media Magazine]

9. CELEBRATE GOOD TIMES, C'MON!

[David Zephyr]

11. Kerry Will Carry Michigan, Pennsylvania & New Hampshire.

That's 42 electoral votes that will be in Kerry's camp come election day. You can count on that.

Now, Wisconsin...I believe we are in some trouble there and this concerns me. Edwards did not deliver any southern state which is also a concern.

At this point in time, John Kerry now must win Florida...

Or George Bush needs to get stomped in the next two debates.

It ain't over yet and Kerry's had two good weeks now.

Kerry is closing.

[MsMagnificent]

12. So these figures are CONSERVATIVE?

(Sorry to use that word LOL)

ohhhh man....

That's all I can say, with some minor bicep trembling and a HUGE grin on my face.

Ohhhh man... there's truly hope for the country?

But is the "Significant speech" (BTW PA is given to Bush) going to impact, and if so how much?

[Goldmund]

13. The ARG website is preset to the results of the 2000 election

So, if Kerry wins every state Gore won _and_ Ohio, he gets 280 EV. But according to electoral-vote.com, he's not leading in every state that Gore won (PA, MI, WI, for ex).

[fujiyama]

14. Don't worry about MI and PA

There is little chance Bush will win in MI. I think his campaign realizes this as well. If they want a likely pick up it would be WI and IA. Gore barely won those two, so they never should have been considered to be in the KErry column.

As for PA I heard they've had a great registration and turn out effort. Also I think Rendell will deliver. I also think Richardson will help deliver NM, another state Gore barely won (smallest margin of victory of any state - 300 somn votes).

[MsMagnificent]

15. No, but you can click in what the latest polls set

which is what I did (No way I'm going to blindly follow what happened in 2000!)

OK, well I see now that Ohio & PA cancel each other out pretty much.
Still, I think what with the job losses to both those states these past 4 years, they stand a good chance of going to JK/JE. Admittedly my opinion isn't worth the paper... uh... the bytes they're written on. I've been wrong (gasp! :) before! LOL

And what was that about WI being out of whack? Higher polls for Kerry or Bush?

However yesterday Florida was considered "Barely Bush" (< or = to 5), now it's "Weak Bush" which does not bode well for that state.

I'm surprised Floridians cannot tell a whopper lie(s) when it's told to them even if by a older rich, balding, powerful white guy.

Oh well, guess it was premature *frown*

But I for one am going to keep on striving right up until the end of election day! That war criminal in the Oval Office has GOT to GO!