10/7 HOT! ELECTION MODEL ZOGBY UPDATES:KERRY 306 EV, 95% PROB, 50.9% VOTE

[TruthIsAll]

Zogby's numbers are in for 16 states.

Kerry is on the verge of a blow out!

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

1. WHA???????

WTF?????? OMG!!!!!!!!

I need to speak in more than three letters, WHOOOOO!!!!!!!

THAT is beautiful. May it come true. Oh dear God, may it come true.

I'm so moved, I'm going to go do a bit of praying for all of us, especially Kerry and Edwards and their families.

[Ladyhawk]

2. Do a little for us atheists, too. :) n/t

[goclark]

3. Thank you God, thank you!

Oh this is wonderful news.

This is what I really believe expresses the wishes of the American people.

I pray that this election will serve to bring us together as a nation.

I pray for the Kerry/Edwards families. May they be safe and secure and know that they are loved.

[usregimechange]

14. I would do that too if I thought it would help, me working not praying

[Bleacher Creature]

4. There's a LONG way to go people.

But it's still nice to see!

Thx TIA!

[Catfight]

16. Yeah, I agree, even after the election there's a lot of rebuilding toward

democracy that needs repairing. Democrats have a lot of work ahead of us, hopefully we can move all the christians to Texas and get a short leash on them!LOL

[oasis]

5. This good news is a relief from the continued insanity of cable news.

[Heath.Hunnicutt]

6. Mmmm. That looks so nice.

So nice. Look at the high probs all the way across the distribution input. Even at 50% distribution, which would be whacked beyond reality, Kerry brings it in. At likely distributions... I will sleep more soundly tonight.

Haven't studies shown that both prayer and meditation exercises in cities can affect local conditions? If you are not a believer in God per se, meditation can at the very least help you focus on your common goal, if not telepathically induce voting behavior in others.

Also, telephone calls to random phone numbers in swing states if you have free nationwide calling. At this point, just hit the right area codes, at the right local hours.

[TruthIsAll]

7. Morning kick

.

[flpoljunkie]

8. A link to Zogby's graphic illustratation his new numbers in battlegrounds.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html

Thanks, TruthIsAll, for all your fine work.

[Ravenseye]

13. I don't get the whole concept of the battleground.

Why are states like New Mexico, Oregon, and Michigan with around 10% leads for Kerry considered battlegrounds, but red states that have 10% leads are not?

[flpoljunkie]

20. Battleground states could go either way, were closely contested in 2000.

[NinetySix]

9. I wonder why Electoral-Vote.com isn't using Zogby's numbers.

The guy always uses the most up-to-date polls, right? Surely none of them are any more up-to-date than October 6?! I calculated 306 EV for Kerry by Zogby's numbers last night; so why does electoral-vote only have Kerry at 253? Strange.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Perky]

11. It might have been overlapped by other Polling data

He alwyas take the latest polling dat if two come out simultaneousl... I think that is a mistaek and I have told him so.. You can't accurately tred thing out unless you have as many data points as possible.. to cast some aside simply by virtue of the poll cocluding before another one is silly.


then again he tried avergaing pollis for his projections but got royally ripped for it by his fans.


I will say this for the votemaster... he is absolutely consitent in his approach and he does not show favorites when using his methodology

[trogdor]

19. You're right.

It was probably overlapped by the Floyd's Barbershop Poll or something. That's my main beef with electoral-vote.com - that all polls are considered equally, regardless of methodology.

[PermanentRevolution]

18. A note from his site today...

"There was a problem with the projected map. It is being worked on. Also, the new Zogby polls came out after today's update. They will be in tomorrow's update."

Mystery solved.

[npincus]

10. from your lips to G-d's ears

I told my husband this mornng that we are leaving the country if you-know-who steals the you-know-what (again)

[ellie]

12. Thanks TIA for putting

a smile on my face this a.m.

[ArkDem]

15. I wish I could cipher as good as you.

:toast:

[TruthIsAll]

17. Kick from work

tia

[blue neen]

21. TIA. I truly believe Kerry/Edwards are going to win this

big time.

Thanks for all of your hard work.

[TruthIsAll]

22. It's not work. I love it. Thanks

TIA

[Blue Gardener]

23. Thanks for the uplifting news

These past few days have really raised my spirits.