Graphically speaking, ZOGBY rocks!

[TruthIsAll]

Let’s track Kerry’s progress now that Zogby’s numbers are in for 16 states:

He’s projected to win with 306 EV and has a 95% WIN probability:


He’s projected to win 50.91% of the popular vote:


The base case projection has him winning 60% of the undecided voters. Look at how his projected EV moves if he gets 50, 55, 60, 67 or 75%:


This is Kerry’s position in the Battleground states (mostly as per Zogby):


And here are the probabilities of winning each state:


Here’s Kerry’s average based on the NINE Independent National pollsters (Zogby, Harris, ARG, IBD, The Economist, ICG, IBD/CSM, Quinnipiac, Pew)..


Here are the latest Corporate and Independent National polls:



Bush job approval is UNDER 50%. No candidate has ever won the presidency with this approval rating.


This chart shows that if Kerry has a 51%-49% average lead in 9 polls, his probability of winning is much higher than if he had the same 51%-49% lead in just ONE poll.


The Monte Carlo simulation is the methodology used to calculate the probability of a Kerry win based on the probabilities of winning each states. Five thousand trial elections
in the simulation produce a certain number (X) of Kerry wins. His probability of winning (P) is therefore: P = X/5000.

His average electoral vote in today’s 5000 trials is 306.
His probability P = 94.5% (he won 4725 of the 5000 trials).
This chart shows the trial outcomes:


As you can see from the next chart, most of the Monte Carlo simulation outcomes fall between 280 and 320 EV’s. He will most likely get 306.




Want more of this?
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[MidwestTransplant]

1. Are those polls Zogby's internet pollling or telephone?

[TruthIsAll]

2. It's an interactive poll in conjunction with WSJ.

You can be sure he knows what he is doing.

Zogby and Harris were the most accurate pollsters in 2000.

[TruthIsAll]

3. AM kick

.

[GiantCranes]

4. Great News

This is great news

[newyawker99]

5. Hi GiantCranes!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[TruthIsAll]

6. Kicking on company time

tia