so what were the poll numbers like at this time in....

[drumwolf]

...the 1980, 1988 and 1992 elections?

At this same point in those campaigns, were Reagan, Poppy 41 and Clinton respectively, significantly ahead? Or was it still considered a close race?

[onehandle]

1. All were significantly ahead.

But if you look at the 2000 numbers, we're in good shape for a win as long as we vote and get others to vote.

[featherman]

2. Reagan was trailing until the last week, I believe

[Homerr]

3. electoral-vote.com is looking very promising this morning!

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Media_Lies_Daily]

5. This version looks even better...

<http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-an1006.html>

Based on Zogby polling.

Excerpt:

"If the results on Election Day matched Zobgy's numbers, Mr. Kerry would win. Here's how:

To analyze Zogby's results, we begin by assuming that the District of Columbia and the 34 states that aren't in the battleground poll will vote for the same political party this November as they did in the 2000 election. Thus, Mr. Bush starts with 189 electoral votes and Mr. Kerry with 172. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.

To those numbers, we add the electoral votes from the latest poll, regardless of the margins of error or the spread between the candidates. Mr. Kerry's 13 states have 150 electoral votes, while Mr. Bush's three have 27 votes. The bottom line: Mr. Kerry would have 322 electoral votes and the president would have 216.

That 106-vote margin is far wider than the last analysis, on Sept. 20, the president was just 56 electoral votes behind Mr. Kerry."

[WI_DEM]

4. In 1980, Reagan and Carter were within the margin of error in most

polls and then when they debated in Cleveland on October 28th ( a very late date for a debate becuz Carter wanted to keep Anderson out of the debates) Reagan won it with "Are you better off than you were four years ago." and his grandfatherly performance vs. Carter's painting him as a warmonger "who has advocated sending troops to nearly every trouble spot around the world." The last weekend the floodgates opened and Reagan won by 10-points.