going out on a limb: my election prediction: 72% Kerry popular vote....

[Lerkfish]

I just have this gut feeling there is going to be a deluge of democrats, uncounted by polls, as well as a larger group of disenchanted reps and indies walking into the booth, having a delicious moment of clarity, and making the correct decision.

It makes me happy. Also, because if there is a clear mandate of the people of this magnitude, no amount of diebolding or blackwelling can alter the outcome.

just my happy thought for the day.

What do I base that on, besides gut feeling? All the reports on new registrants say similar things: dems outstripping repubs by large margins, some as high as 10 to 1. New registrants will vote. Large numbers of cell phone users and alternate shift people are not being polled. A lot of repubs are simply choosing not to vote in disgust...even though they will not vote for Kerry, them not voting still helps. I can't imagine ANY dem not voting this year that is registered.

at present, lets say polls are Kerry 50%, Bush 48%. Let's add 10-15% more voters, largely dem. Let's subtract 5-10% repubs not voting. Let's subtract 5% of diebolded ballots, or other election fraud. and lets' do the math...er...ah...well, my gut still tells me 72% for some reason. Don't ask me to do math...I'm an artist and a visionary, I tell ya!

Cheer up!

[LuminousX]

1. My prediction is more like 52%

Some people are just never going to vote Kerry this time around. Kerry 2008 - 57% with a strong showing by Greens at about 12%

[The Chronicler]

3. A Naderless Green Party turnout of 12%? YEAH RIGHT

2008

Kerry 61%

Pataki 38%

Green 1%

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

2. That's way too high.

But I do think 55-43 Kerry win is likely.

[Vincardog]

5. WE have to got 60% or Diebold wins

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

13. I meant that as a post-diebold number

[Ishoutandscream]

14. Damn, you took my prediction.

nt

[HFishbine]

4. Would be the 2nd most lopsided presidential election

Behind the 92% Thomas Jefferson got in 1804.

[beyurslf]

6. Impossible. No one has gotten over 65% (and that is VERY rare) since the

Civil War. 55% is considered a landslide in the Presidential election.

I am shooting for 52-54%

[mahina]

7. This will make you smile too...

Check out the projected results page from electoral-vote. I know it's inconsistent with the map and is probably just a software glitch but it works for me baby, Kerry 538- * 0 http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct07p.html

[nickinSTL]

8. Too high...

But, I think it'll be solid Kerry.

Makes me wonder...if Kerry wins solidly, and we manage to take the Senate (not a foregone conclusion by any means)... How will the Repubs handle it?

Will the traditional conservatives who've been kowtowing to the extremist neo-con fascist agenda continue to allow the neo-cons to run things, once it's been proven that they're failing?

hmm...

[giant_robot]

17. "How will the Repubs handle it?"

The same way they handled Clinton: a political witchhunt intent on impeachment. That's why it's important for us to take the House (harder than taking the Senate, but not impossible).

[Oak2004]

26. The DSCC needs money

The Republican senatorial campaign has a lot more money than the Dems do:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20041007/ap_on_el_se/party_money_3


The outcome of the senate races are important. The DSCC needs our money. If you can contribute a few dollars towards the end of our national nightmare, go to

http://www.dscc.org

[WI_DEM]

9. Even at the height of the depression FDR only got 57% in 1932

LBJ beat Goldwater with 61%. It will not be so lopsided as 72% but it is a nice dream.

[Teaser]

10. Dude, that's nuts.

As much as I'd like it to happen, it's crazy talk.

[durablend]

12. My guess...

Kerry gets low 50s (%)...electoral votes are going to be split 2xx-2xx (Kerry by 15-25 EVs).

[leftofthedial]

11. interestingly, 72% of the popular vote

is exactly how much of the popular vote I calculate Kerry will need for the election to appear 50-50, due to BBV and repuke fraud.

[ibegurpard]

16. That's ridiculous

Because those kind of numbers would be completely unprecedented. Such statements are effectively saying we have no chance and no hope.

[leftofthedial]

21. how sure are you such results would be unprecedented?

ar eyou sure that the election results of the last three decades (or longer) have been legitimate? Personally, I think about 80% of Americans are "with us."

Polls and election results alike are skewed to ensure the perpetuation of the status quo.
All this means is that each oligarchy vote counts more than one of ours.

We already saw that principle in action in 2000 when 5 oligarchy votes trumped 50 million proletariat votes.

2000 was a COUP, not a botched election. Those who executed the coup will not relinquish power easily jsut because a bunch of us commoners say so at voting booths. They need to preserve the illusion of democracy, not democracy itself.

[Lerkfish]

27. Don't get the correlation...

between a gut feeling of a landslide and saying there's no hope?
Are you channeling Cheney?

[ibegurpard]

30. I was responding to someone who said we'd need to get

historically unprecedented numbers in order to overcome possible vote fraud. If that's what people believe then why bother? Every landslide that you've ever heard of never approached 72% and if that's what we have to get to overcome fraud then we're fucked.

[AntiCoup2K4]

15. Whatever the percentage, let's call it a landslide

Because if Bush can call a LOSS a mandate for the most radically fascist right wing agenda in history, then even a 3% Kerry win is a landslide of Biblical proportions by comparison.

[BillZBubb]

18. Hell, if Kerry gets 60% my faith in Americans will be on the mend.

Any less than that and I'll remain skeptical and dismissive of my fellow "citizens".

[mumon]

19. We STILL have to act as though it's 49-49!

I am very, very serious that we will win, but we MUST go balls-out.

[Captain Lance Bass]

20. Landslide on the way

Keep fighting like its a tie JFK but MY gut tells me this is nowhere NEAR the even divide the polls show. JFK will win by 15 to 20 points after its all said and done.

[Lerkfish]

24. agreed.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

22. If we GOTV in a strong way: Kerry 54%/Bush 44%/Others 2%

Kerry will get 320+ electoral votes too!

[TruthIsAll]

23. You are WAY wrong! 61% is the record. Stick to art.

If Kerry gets 54% it would be a legitimate landslide.

If Kerry gets 57%, it would be a total blowout. Won't happen.

I expect Kerry 52-53%. A solid win. That's good enough for 330+ electoral votes.

Cheers
TIA

[Lerkfish]

25. just disagree with me, don't insult me....mmmmmkay?

thanks.

[oasis]

28. America has a lot more Kool aid drinking shitheads that would vote Bush.

[brooklynite]

29. Nope, this is 1976 again.....

An unpopular incumbent President, a somewhat (at least in perception) Democratic opponent, and nail-bitingly small margins until Election day.