It's Ohio, stupid.

[MyUncle]

This is Florida of 2004.

I see most of the other states as settling in, sorry but Florida goes to Bush.

I can't imagine Bush wins Wisconsin, but if he does, and JFK wins Ohio, IT COULD BE A TIE.

Here is a link to an LA Times map so you can do your own manipulation of results:
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. Direct link to map

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash

now let me play around with it and tell you what I think....

[MyUncle]

3. It is a better link - mahalo.

[spooky3]

12. Yay, they show VA as "up for grabs" with its 13 electoral votes.

That's more than NM, AZ, MO, WV. As someone else said about Colorado, the huge population growth in NoVA, plus lots of new voters, including many Latinos, since 2000. Add to that lots of disaffected military members throughout the state, and a competent Dem. governor, a highly mobilized Dem. community, and VA is most definitely in play.

[MyUncle]

13. VA would be a major coup, but unlikely.

I don't want to be a downer, just trying to be realistic. It is going to be O-HI-O.

[Carla in Ca]

40. Help me out here

There is a video of Tim Ryan (D) of Ohio addressing congress today. It is amazing! Media Player doesn't show URL so I don't know how to copy it.

[Catfight]

2. I agree, Florida was able to throw out votes in 2000 why not now.

Nothing has really changed in the way florida votes and counts votes.

[AngryOldDem]

4. Could very well be the Florida of 2004...

...in more ways than one.

Check out this thread on the Ohio board. Ken Blackwell is at it again.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=172x2591

[MyUncle]

5. That is not inspiring news.

Who ever "wins" this state, is going to be in a great position.

[Philostopher]

35. It's a desperate, last-ditch effort, though, I say.

Very little EV in Ohio. They'd have to discard or burn ballots (or, as Blackwell wants to do, refuse provisional ballots to those who attempt to vote in the wrong precinct). None of the EV is Diebold, either -- I don't think the CEO of Sequoia, the company that's providing the few EV machines in Ohio, promised to deliver the election to Bush*, either.

I don't know -- Kerry may lose Ohio on the 'ignorant mouth-breather' votes, but I really feel like that's the only way. I don't know how bad the provisional ballot thing will hurt us. Wouldn't it only affect people who'd previously registered then moved and not changed their addresses? What percentage of voters would this really amount to?

I have the same distaste for Ken Blackwell that I have for Zell Miller -- both of them pretended to be Democrats for a while to get minority votes. The only difference between them (besides the fact Blackwell is a minority) is that one of them changed party affiliation once he made a name for himself and the other is a white Dixiecrat who hates the party he used to get African American votes.

Smacks of the desperation of a man who smells the smoke of the train leaving the station. I just can't see this affecting a large enough percentage of voters to swing the election -- am I missing something? I'm willing to accept that I might be. What am I not thinking of?

[Demi_Babe]

6. I love playing around with that map

all the different scenarios came up Kerry. :-)

[MyUncle]

7. So, did you give him every state just for grins?

[Renew Deal]

8. I don't agree on multiple points.

If Kerry wins the Gore states minus Wisconsin AND Iowa, he still gets to 270 with Florida. Kerry is pretty much a lock on the rest of those Gore states. Add Florida and it's game over.

For Ohio to work, Kerry has to keep Iowa too. Ohio is nice, but Florida is the key again.

[Bleacher Creature]

9. Whoaa -- "Florida goes to Bush" ??

I don't buy that. We have as good a shot in Florida as anywhere else.

But yes, Ohio could turn out to be this year's version of Florida in 2000.

[MyUncle]

10. I did say I was sorry in advance,

but I just don't think Florida goes Kerry's way. But I do agree that if it does, it is over.

[0007]

23. My uncle Jocko sez "Tis Over" Florida looses for junior!

Maybe you know that those machines will be cranking like in 2000 in junior's favor? I don't know -

Jimmy Carter says that the cheating is gonna be strong on November 2, 04 ~

[demzilla]

11. Yep, it's Ohio.

Ohio is probably a more likely pickup than FL.

Way I see it -- and it's way to early to really know -- Bush gains WI, Kerry gains NH, Kerry gains 4 EV from Colorado (referendum passes)-- total is 280 Bush, 258 Kerry. Which means Ohio is crucial, bringing Kerry to 278 if he wins it. Otherwise he needs to win 1) Florida OR 2) a combination of at least two unlikely states, such as NV, AZ, AR, MO.

All this said, strong Kerry debate performances will raise the boats everywhere and we could see Kerry wins in ALL the above, plus a few more.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

14. Here's my 269 vote EC tie

We lose Ohio and FLorida but pick up Nevada and New Hampshire

[progressivebydesign]

15. You're giving Bush waaay too many states. n/t

[NewYorkerfromMass]

16. I'm just looking for likely outcomes

wherein they steal both Ohio and Florida. The only way to avoid this if they do steal those 2 is to win either Colorado or Norh Carolina.
I actually think Kerry will win FLorida BY A LOT.
AND.... I see also where Missouri is now nearly a toss-up!

[demwing]

17. Which of these Red states do you see turning Blue? /nt

[NewYorkerfromMass]

18. FLorida for 1

I mean we DID in fact win it last time before Teresa LePore, Nader, adn Jeb and Kathy were done with us.

Ohio is the other likely candidate.

[MyUncle]

20. Has there ever been a tie?

I know what happens if there is one, but I am curious if there ever has been one. (I should know this, but I don't)

[demwing]

27. Special election in the house

where each state gets one vote and the vote is decided by a consensus of the state's Representatives. Veep is chosen by the Senate.

[MyUncle]

28. I do know the process, just wondering if it has ever happened?

[demwing]

29. Sorry, I didn't read your post correctly.

my bad :)

[MyUncle]

30. No worries, but I am still curious.

[demwing]

31. Yes, it has

In 1800.

Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr got 73 ECV each. It went to the House, which chose Jefferson in a 10 to 4 vote, 2 abstains.

[MyUncle]

32. Thank you Demwing, great info.

So it can happen. Statistical odds are higher. But I have come up with that scenario serveral times.

[Stuckinthebush]

19. Florida to Bush???

I don't think so. Bush won last time by suppressing the black vote, and having the good fortune of hanging chads. Still he only "won" by 500 votes.

Fast forward to 2004:

Chads aren't a problem
Voter turnout will be massive
New voters are signing up in droves
Cuban community has a larger swing to Kerry than to Gore
Military vote will have more Kerry votes than Gore votes in 2000.

Unless that outright burn ballots or delete computer records (which they may do!), I don't see this going to W.

[MyUncle]

21. They were in crisis all of the month of September.

That upset some of the organizational efforts of lots of political initiatives and has distracted people to an unimaginable degree in the main population areas of Miami, Orlando and Tampa.

Also, do you think the FEMA money and support will be behind or ahead of schedule? Do you think the response to these disasters will be swift or slow.

Sorry again.

[Stuckinthebush]

22. I understand that some of the panhandle folks

Are talking about voting for Kerry because of the poor job FEMA did after the hurricane. Just a small percentage of panhandle voters switching from Bush to Kerry will play a huge roll.

[MyUncle]

24. If that is the case than Jeb and Shrub are even stupider than I thought.

Which is unbelievable.

[ollie3]

25. too early to tell, many state polls are older

I think a lot of states could go either way. MO, NV, VA, ARK, IA, WI, CO, OH, FL. If Kerry wins either OH or FL, he is in very good shape. He certainly doesn't have to win both. If the other debates go well, Kerry will solidify more his numbers in some of these states he is currently behind in. What I think should be obvious, and perhaps is not perceived when you see these electoral vote "projections" is that the numbers given are NOT a measure of strength in the same way as the national poll numbers are. Just a few votes either way in a few states and the electoral numbers drastically change. AT this point, it is quite possible that either Bush or Kerry has an electoral college victory with or without Florida and even Ohio.

In terms of strategy, Kerry should plan for a victory scenario even if he loses both OH and FL. I think we have a good shot. If we win NH, IA, and NV (each now tossups) then we would need any TWO of the following states: CO, WI, ARK, MO, VA. If Kerry continues to do well nationally, I think that a non-OH, nonFL scenario is still feasible.

[MyUncle]

26. CO and WI are possible the others are going to be tough.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. I Had My Sound Turned All The Way Up

when I hit Michigan for Kerry it played Hail To The Chief and I almost pissed myself...

[MyUncle]

34. Did you replay it?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. It's A Great Song....

Rightup there with Pomp And Circumstances and Me So Horny....

[Fiendish Thingy]

37. What if Bush steals both Ohio and Florida?

Any possible scenarios that have a hope of a chance?

[blue sky at night]

38. don't be so sure about any of 18 swing states

MoveON PAC is working hard in 18 swing states to gain nearly 440,000 votes for Kerry. Lets sign up and get to work. OHIO is going to go for Kerry, I know, I live here and its going to happen. DUMP BUSH, only 26 days to go.

[Joe Turner]

39. I agree that Ohio is critical

and so is Florida. Kerry picking up one of the two would probably seal the deal.

There is something to consider though, that many aren't aware of, which is highly favorable to Kerry. It is that the republican base is not energized anywhere near like it was in 2000 and it is going to cost Shrub a lot of votes.

While the Bush Campaign is very strong and organized at the top, capable of overwhelming the media, cable, air waves with a barrages of ads, spinsters, paid liars, it is actually very weak at the grassroots level. This is because Shrub has alienated millions of rank and file republicans across the country; the very people that run campaigns at the local level.

Many of these folks are not going to work hard or work at all to get Bush elected because they really don't like him. I can readily see this in my own solidly republican neighborhood where you can walk block after block and see virtually no Bush/Cheney signs. You can see this on a number of conservative Internet forums where a lot of members simply hate Smirk. It's just a night and day difference from 2000 when republicans were turbo charged about the election.

This, coupled with an extremely strong democratic turnout for Kerry and you can forget what the polls say, Kerry's going to win it.