Is taking the House really far-fetched?

[mumon]

I hear this alot, but I'm somewhat skeptical: is it really, really true that out of 225 seats there aren't 20 we could pick up?

Does anyone have any good break-down of this?

[Warpy]

1. New voters are the key

Whether or not their dislike of the way things are going spills over into Congressional races is anyone's guess. We already know they're less than happy with Bush.

[mumon]

3. I think the Senate races are "in the bag"

more or less- somebody as arm-chair as myself can do the math, and 51-49 is clearly do-able.

But the House seems that much harder. I guess you have to be kos-squared or Atrios-squared to grok that.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

2. Yes and no

It's POSSIBLE, but not likely. There are only about 40 or 50 competitive races, and of course some of those are held by Dems already. But with a high-voter turn out that is expected, don't be too surprised to see Dems take a big surge.

[Renew Deal]

4. I don't think so.

There are competitive seats all over. Some with some ugly republicans including Delay. There is one in NM. There are some in Florida too I believe. Dems just have to vote the whole line.

[calico1]

6. I think a lot of Dems may just do that.

Here in CT in my discrict (second) they did a poll just in the last few days. Despite having wide name recognition, lots more money and despite people not really disliking him, and despite the little name recognition of his opponent, the incumbent Rob Simmons is only 4 points ahead of Jim Sullivan, the Dem. This district favors Kerry over * by a wide margin and just that fact is hurting him. So who knows? A lot of angry Democrats and Independents may just decide to vote Dem across the board just because they hate *. I hope so!

[yellowcanine]

10. Did you just say Delay's seat is competitive? That is music to my ears

if true. The ethics lapses could be helpful if the race is close.

[JohnnyCougar]

13. DeLay is ahead by single digits...

...and that was before this avalanche of censure from the House Ethics Committee. See my post below for his opponent Richard Morrison's website!

Why have DeLay punished when we can just vote him out?

[soothsayer]

5. As long as we have enuff to do a post-term impeachment (yes, you CAN

do that, Rep Conason has the procedure for it, hee hee hee), that'll be cool with me!

[WI_DEM]

7. If Kerry has a better than expected victory

like Reagan had in 1980, then I think it is highly possible. If it is a squeeker victory by Kerry--probably not.

[yellowcanine]

11. An early call for Kerry could hurt us on the West Coast, though,

Or an early call for Bush - God forbid. I think our chances may be better in 2008 when Kerry runs for reelection against the "Do Nothing" Republican Congress.

[aeolian]

8. My district (27th New York)

We're replacing a republican rep. who's retiring.

It seems like the seat will go to the Dem, Brian Higgins, just judging by the lawn signage. I haven't seen ANY signs for his opponent.

[JohnnyCougar]

9. Here's a breakdown...

http://www.mydd.com/outlook/house

The Dems are in danger of losing 0 seats, it seems. (Well except for those five Texas redistricting seats. God, DeLay is such a vacuous preick.) Looks like the republicans will lose about 6-10, if the "toss ups" get split evenly. We need to take 12 to win back the House. It's hard, but it's doable, especially if DeLay goes down! That's one more seat that isn't even on the "toss up" category.

As soon as I get my paycheck, I'm giving to the DNC and to Richard Morrison, DeLay's opponent. http://www.richardmorrisonfordistrict22.com/

dKOS also has a number of targeted races, which includes the opponent of Majority Whip (and major asshole) Roy Blunt:
http://actblue.com/list/dkos

Help win back the House!!!

[0rganism]

12. It'd be a stretch this year, maybe in 2006 tho

If Kerry can really prove himself in the first two years, it's possible Dems could do what the pubs did in 2002.