Recount sought in San Diego mayoral race; citizens' audit finds anomalies

[Liberty Belle]

CITIZEN AUDIT PARALLEL ELECTION PROJECT

6221 Del Paso Ave.

San Diego, California 92120

[phone]




Contact : Brina-Rae Schuchman

Press Release 619-286-4037

Immediate [e-mail]




EVENT: PRESS CONFERENCE: Citizens’ Audit of Mayoral Election:

Statistically Significant Differences



WHEN: Friday, August 12, 2005


TIME: 11:00 am



WHERE: San Diego CITY ADMINISTRATION BUILDING PLAZA

202 C Street, Downtown. Near Civic Theater.




WHO: Judith Alter, Ed.D, national voting rights advocate, director of the

Citizens Audit Parallel Election Project, which conducted a parallel election over 100' away, at 5 locations involving 11 precincts in the San Diego Special Election on July 26 2005, and local activists.




WHAT: A Report of the initial findings of statisticians who analyzed the “voluntary revotes” of 1515 of the 3049 voters of those 11 precincts, and compared them to the official Diebold optical scan totals. They say there are statistically significant differences which could not have happened by chance. Because the two vote counts do not match, a request for a Hand Recount of those eleven precincts will be filed immediately, to determine which results are accurate. Dr.Alter is familiar with voting machines and the issues of election integrity across the land. Graphics.


There will be time for questions.


###



Note: Parallel Election Press Kits will be available with extensive election background information including statistical data. Available for e-mail delivery on request. Please provide an e-mail address capable of receiving file attachments plus any special instructions for delivery.

[Carolab]

1. Great news. This proves that more citizen audits are needed.

I'm planning to work on one soon.

[Oerdin]

2. Is this the exit poll?

There was some person running around on the local news who supposedly did an exit poll and found the exit poll results were 4% different from the stated results and claimed voter fraud. I must admit I laughed at that one since those people apparently hadn't ever heard of error bars on a poll or how to estimate them.

I hope this audit is something different.

[yowzayowzayowza]

3. This is an exit poll of ..

50% of the voters in the audited precincts which wuz off 4%. Does that pass yer "error bar" test?

This is the kinda activism we need!!!!!

[Liberty Belle]

4. They found all errors shifted votes away from Frye--and to the 2 Reps.

The Citizens Audit Parallel Election group polled 50% of the people in 11 precincts (5 locations) and asked them to vote a second time outside and sign a paper swearing the vote was accurate, so a bit more involved than an exit poll. At least as many Republicans as Democrats participated, so the results should not be skewed by inordinate participation among liberals.

Statisticians have looked at the results and concluded the odds of such significant shifts occurring by mere chance in so many precincts would be astronomical.

They will be asking for a hand count of the questionable precincts, and are willing to pay for it. So hopefully we'll find out in the near future whether this was just a strange coincidence or whether some vote tampering occurred.

[Oerdin]

13. What about sampling bias?

I'm wondering if sampling bias was considered? I mean there could have been a reason why Republicans wouldn't want to take part in the exit poll while Democrats might be slightly more inclined to take part. Especially after the exit poll debacals we had in 2000 and 2004. If someone is going to claim fraud they're going to need more then this to not be tossed out of court.

Having more monitors sure couldn't hurt though.

[Liberty Belle]

5. Great! Please let me know how yours turns out,

so we can join forces to show a pattern if one emerges. Where would yours be held and when?

[adolfo]

6. Wonderful

Great News! I’m tired of waiting for politicians to do something.

Depending on state laws, certain legally formed organizations can get access to voter records and conduct an audit like this one. This can be done in other states if you have the resources to do so.

Another audit method is to get a group of trusted friends and make a request to the local Elections Supervisor for access to the ballots directly (Public Records). You can either target specific precincts or count randomly. 2004 ballots can still be counted and are just sitting in warehouses. I think the retention period is 22 months for federal election ballots.

[rinsd]

7. Do they have a website? On Edit:: Foudn something on Mark Crispin Miller

I can't find any info on the web about them or their analysis.

What was the sample size?

Which locations were they doing this?

Etc?

Found this:

http://markcrispinmiller.blogspot.com/2005/08/san-diego-parallel-election.html

[Liberty Belle]

11. They sampled around 1,500 voters in 11 precincts (5 sites).

This represented 50% of those who voted in those areas.

Frye's overall total came out 4% lower in the parallel election than in the official tally, while her two Republican opponents each gained 2%. A ballot initiative backed by conservatives also lost 4% in the parallel election.

The most conservative statistical analysis done indicated that the odds of these shifts occurring by pure chance, all in the same direction, are at least 1,300 to 1.

Also, the sample precincts included slightly more conservative areas than liberal ones, so if anything, the sample bias skewed conservative, making these results even more surprising. Participation in the parallel election also included at least as many Republicans as Democrats, so there doesn't appear to be any reluctance for conservatives to participate, either.

I don't think CAPE (Citizens Audit Parallel Election) has a website yet, but I'll check around and see if the info is posted anywhere online yet. If not, I'll find a place to scan in the info and post here. There's a terrific chart that shows Frye with 50% in the parallel election outcome--enough to indicate she may have won the election outright if that trend is the same citywide.

A recount of 11 precincts has been requested by CAPE, they announced formally today at the press conference. If significant anomalies are found, they intend to ask for a full recount citywide.

I'll be writing up an article for a weekly newspaper in a couple of days and will post a copy here.

[Joanne98]

8. YES! Nominated!

[Stevepol]

9. This is one of the best pieces of news I've read in a long long time.

And if the law suits are successful, as I believe at least a few will be, that will set a precedent for such law suits around the country and that could be the beginning of the LONG MARCH back to democracy for the USA.

The more who are able to do this, the better.

[ooglymoogly]

10. kickety kick and nom

this is the kind of activism that counts.

[TruthIsAll]

12. Kick and recommend. We need more of this kind.

.