I think that the CA-48 special election will give the RWers a run

[question everything]

This is great. This district, of course, is one of the most Conservative in the nation. The loyal pugs were hoping for Dick Ackerman, or for Bob Dornan or Jim Rogan. They consider John Campbell - everyone's belief of a "shoo in" as too moderate, especially on illegal immigration.

Come crazy Gilchrist and I already here enthusiasm support for him from the real hard liners. Pro-privacy Marilyn Brewer or even Democrat Steve Young may just carry the district. (though I have no idea where Young is standing about women's reproductive rights)

[Oerdin]

1. Facts about CA-48's past voting record.

Partisan Voter Registration As Of February, 2005:
Republican: 50.28%
Democratic: 27.18%

2004 Congressional Election: Cox 65.5, Graham 32.2
2002 Congressional Election: Cox 68.5, Graham 28.4

2004 National Presidential Vote: Bush 50.7, Kerry 48.3
CA-48: Bush 58.5, Kerry 40.4
District National Partisan Index: RNC +15.6 (7.8% swing to tie, 6% less than OH-02)

2000 National Presidential Vote: Gore 48.4, Bush 47.9
CA-48, 2000: Bush 57.8, Gore 39.5
District National Partisan Index: RNC +18.8

2004 California Senate Vote: Boxer 57.8, James 37.8
CA-48: James 51.4, Boxer 43.7
Partisan Index: RNC +27.7

2003 California Recall Gray Davis: Yes 55.4, No 44.6
CA-48: Yes 72.9, No: 27.1
Partisan Index: RNC +35.0

2003 Governor: Schwarzenegger 48.6, Bustamante 31.5
CA-48: Schwarzenegger 48.6, Bustamante 31.5
Partisan Index: RNC +31.8

2002 California Governor: Davis 47.3, Simon 42.4
CA-48: Simon 59.4, Davis 32.8
Partisan Index: RNC +31.5

District California Partisan Index Two Year Mean: RNC +31.5

Race / Ethnicity
White, non-Hispanic: 68.0%
Latino: 14.7%
Asian-American: 12.8%
African-American: 1.5%

Median Income: $69,663 (17th wealthiest in nation)
Poverty: 6.3%
Geography: Entirely within Orange County
Urbanization: 99.9% urban, 106 farms

District Map
Social Security Recipients: 73,662
Social Security Recipients as a percentage of voting population: 14.4%

[Oerdin]

2. June 17th poll

June 17, 2005
CA-48: Special Election Polling
Posted by Tim Tagaris

So, it's closer than I thought it might be:

Conducted by Probolsky Research (R). June 10-14, 2005. N=325 likely special election voters districtwide. (MoE +/- 5.5%)

John Graham (D): 22%

John Campbell (R): 31%
Marilyn Brewer (R): 8%

Don't Know/Undecided: 39%

The Democrat, John Graham is a university professor. For the Republicans, John Campbell is a State Senator and Marilyn Brewer is a business woman.
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I'm not sure John Graham is officially even running yet. He's doing well for a district which is +30% Republican though we should expect this to be a noncompetitive discrict in the end.

[question everything]

3. Yes, John Graham is running

but the Democrats are really excited about Steve Young who even got team Paul Hackett on his campaign and - as I posted earlier - an enthusiastic support from the Daily Kos

[genius]

4. Graham is for free trade. He is running.

The most liberal of the candidates is Bea Foster, who has repeatedly run for assembly in that area. She's pretty good at speaking. Steve Young seems to have the best chance. He's a rich lawyer. Bea is a teacher. Steve's against free trade and is fairly liberal. He threw a party for Jerry Brown recently.

[Oerdin]

5. There are many of us.

Who are for free trade and against protectionism and subsidies. Right now it seems that politicians use subsidies and promises of tarrifs to try to buy the support of politically powerful groups even when doing so violates international agreements. Some of us aren't supportive of the begger they neighbor policy which is protectionism.

[jackbourassa]

6. We will win with Steve Young

Do all you can to support Steve Young. There's only one month left. Please do all you can.

Endorsed by the California Democratic Party.

http://www.steveyoungforcongress.com/action.php

This guy is one of us.