UC Davis Quake Map Scorecard Proves Successful

[Kadie]

UC Davis Quake Map Scorecard Proves Successful
Group Predicts San Simeon, Parkfield Quakes

POSTED: 4:03 pm PDT October 4, 2004
UPDATED: 4:22 pm PDT October 4, 2004

DAVIS, Calif. -- Earthquakes strike without warning. So, earthquake prediction is considered the holy grail of seismology. Now, with a promising new technique, some University of California, Davis researchers may have found the grail.

By looking at earthquake data dating back to the 1930s and doing quite a bit of math, Professor John Rundal, of UC Davis, and his colleagues predicted where earthquakes would hit between 2000 and 2010. In essence, they created an earthquake scorecard map. And the results were surprising.

"It surprised me very much. We were thinking that maybe three out of four, two out of three, would occur on these hotspots, but not 15 out of 16," Rundal said.

more...
http://www.thekcrachannel.com/news/3782750/detail.html

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. I wish they'd have had a map

I'm wondering when the fellow predicts New Madrid will shake up the Midwest.

[Ranec]

2. Wasn't the commentary that the latest tremblor wasn't predicted?

Even though they have a huge amount of measuring equipment in the area.

Maybe the answer is to make larger macro predictions (15 quakes next year in these counties...) rather than tornado-warning-like predictions.