Does anyone have current numbers on Brett Wagner's campaign?

[4_Legs_Good]

For as close as we are to actually getting rid of Gallegly, Wagner is running a shit-ass campaign in my neck of the woods. Hardly any visibility out there, only obviously placed by Democratic Club signs anywhere. NO bumper stickers.

Come on! We have 2 weeks left! We had a really great chance to do this and do it right. But we seem to have ignored the Dean/MoveOn revolution and are still putzing along old school while having Elton outspend us and out visibilitize (new word!) us in every way.

I shoulda got involved earlier.

david

[pelagius]

1. I'm not sure anybody is doing polling in that district...

...or at least I haven't seen any numbers from anybody.

Wagner didn't raise enough money by last July to merit any help from the national party. I don't know that the state Dems are doing anything for him, either. His campaign is about as grass-roots on a shoestring as it can be.

Brett is going to do quite well this election. I'm not certain if he's going to do well enough to win, though. I'm not writing him off, but it does take some help to go up against an entrenched Republican incumbent in such a heavily-gerrymandered district.

Meanwhile, sounds like Brett could use a sign captain in your area. It's definitely not too late. You can find him at:

http://www.brettwagner2004.com/

[4_Legs_Good]

2. Thanks!

I hate gerrymandering! I'm in Lompoc, and we were gerrymandered out of Capps district into Gallegly's. I'm totally desperate to get rid of this guy. Grrrrrrrr...

It seems that Congressional races in this area are more name recognition than anything, and since we never hear about Gallegly except in his dumb-ass newsletter, it seemed like we might have a good chance. But with no funding from the DNC and not much activity in fund raising that I've seen over the internet, it's hard to see how we can match a sitting Congressman.

I'll see what I can do about getting more involved!

Thanks,

david

[Capn Sunshine]

3. He's doing the strategy thing

You haven't seen much of him there in Lompoc because he's concentrating on the population centers down south: Ventura, Thousand oaks , and Simi Valley. The more visibility you have in Lompoc the better for everyone.

But you have to wonder about the party policy of not helping.

[4_Legs_Good]

4. I think, though, that Lompoc is one of the only spots in the district

that has more registered Democrats than Republicans (although you wouldn't realize that from the way we vote).

If it's a seat that's in play, it's insane not to spend party money on him. Grrrrrr...

We'll see what we can do about visibility these last couple weeks.

david

[catzies]

5. I'm phonebanking for him tonight.

You should sign up for campaign updates on his website that's upthread.

[SoCalJeffersonian]

6. Specifics?

I have seen a few comments on this board suggesting that Wagner is a serious threat.

On what are these statements based exactly?

If anyone has any specfics or facts or anectdotal evidence, I would love to hear it. My impression is/was that this is a very safe GOP seat and I am surprised to see some of these comments.

Can anyone shed some light on this please?

[pelagius]

7. The East County goes Republican and the West County is...

...Democratic-leaning. The county has been gerrymandered so that Democratic precincts are divided across two Congressional districts. Because of this a Wagner victory is statistically difficult, but dissatisfaction with life under hard-right Republicans and an anticipated big turnout to vote against Bush can work in his favor. Brett is also an attractive candidate in this district based on his own strengths.

Wagner's primary appeal is that he can reach out to moderates because he has impeccable credentials on defense -- he's a professor at the Naval War college -- and talks a DLC liberal line. He emphasizes things like his background in Boy Scouts and church, which are considered fine institutions in this area. The major employers in Ventura County are the military bases. You must know your stuff on defense and be a "peace through strength" pragmatist to have a shot as a Democrat in this area.

Wagner avoids wedge topics and sticks to bread and butter. Brett is gay, but, if it ever comes up, merely comments on how grateful he is for the support of his long-term life partner. He emphasizes national security and middle-class squeeze issues. He often positions himself just slightly to the left of Gallegly, who is as conservative as they come.

For example, illegal immigration is a hot issue in Ventura County. Gallegly has taken the hard right stand of denying the use of "matricula consulars" (ID cards issued by the Mexican embassy) as legitimate ID. Wagner responds by saying, "I certainly understand why Mr. Gallegly has taken his position. I, too, believe that people who are here illegally shouldn't be here. But, I talk with law enforcement officers and they say that the best thing is to be able to track people in the system somehow. That way if someone is here illegally and hits your car, they can't just disappear and stick your insurance company with the repair bill."

Practical, realistic, and to the point. No impassioned speeches about the dignity and rights of all God's children. Yeah, he demagogues the issue a bit, but the response reaches people where they live. There's a generalized anxiety about undocumented aliens -- they're taking the jobs, they're clogging up the hospitals and schools, they're having 12 children on welfare, and so forth -- but, this being Southern California, getting your car smashed up and being stuck with the bill is a specific and personal fear.

Brett is good at avoiding abstractions -- although he too easily slips into technical arcana when talking about his favorite topic of Russian nuclear material stockpiles -- and talking reality.

Wagner gets out and meets people. He's pure retail politics. In Ventura, civility and personal contact means a lot. Gallegly is good on constituent service, but doesn't get out and about where the people are.

Brett Wagner is not particularly charismatic, although he is physically attractive and well-spoken. My wife dislikes his voice --"nasal with a whiny undertone", she says -- and his speeches are hardly inspirational stemwinders.

Nonetheless, he's the best shot the Democrats have had in years. If he makes a strong showing this year, the DNC and state party might take our district a bit more seriously in two years. If Wagner wins, it will be a surprise, but not a huge one. Respectable numbers in the 40s seem quite possible. That's pretty damn good for this district with a shoestring budget and small, mostly volunteer staff.

[lwin]

8. Oh come on...

Fact: Ventura County is gerrymandered within an inch of it's life to skew Republican. The power, money and influence is in the East County...you don't win the rest of the county without it.

As a Democrat, I hate to say it, but some of you are living in Fantasyland if you think Wagner is a serious challenge to Gallegly here. It's going to take a moderate Democrat to pose a serious challenge to Gallegly. The sooner we accept that fact and find a candidate to fit the bill, the sooner we'll be rid of Gallegly.

I'll happily eat crow if you can prove me wrong on election day.

[pelagius]

9. A more moderate Democrat?

Jeez Louise -- 90% of Americans skew to the "left" of Gallegly. Arnold Schwarzenegger is a raging fancy-pants liberal compared to Elton Gallegly. Ventura's Tom McClintock was _too_ conservative for most California Republicans in the recall race.

The "fantasyland" approach is to think that somehow a Democrat is going to win the hearts and minds (to say nothing of pocketbooks and votes) of the county's hard right. Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks (Freeper Central) are voting Republican even if their candidate barbecues and eats a baby at the County Fair. No amount of pandering to them is going to work.

In the rest of the county, though, you have a shot with a "sensible centrist" strong on defense and middle-class issues. We've already got a moderate Democrat -- Wagner is running a campaign that would get him booed out of the Bay Area for being a Republican stooge. He doesn't need to move any further right.

Wagner is the best candidate we've had in years, though he's far from ideal. Lack of experience is one thing, his boyish "let's all live in beautiful harmony" approach lacks gravitas, and the one issue he is passionate about (Russian nuclear stockpiles) is too nuanced for the average Ventura voter. I would also like to think that his being gay would make no difference, but with the rash of fundagelical churches in this area, I suspect it would.

Despite the apparent weaknesses of the campaign and the candidate, I still believe Wagner will have a respectable showing. (I'll admit I must have been high or whatever when I said it won't be a surprise if he wins.) I am defining "respectable" as around 40%. We'll see on Tuesday.

Those are numbers make the state and national parties look twice next time around. If this district is considered in play in two years, you're going to see a much more credible campaign (or maybe even candidate). The money in the county is Republican; money must come from outside the county to mount a credible threat.

But, as far as I can see, Ventura Democrats (and allied independents) seem locked into the "since we can't win, we shouldn't try" mentality. Look at this thread! We've got "what a lousy campaign" kibitzing and "dream on, you fools" negativity. Sorry to go all true believer on you here, but I think at least putting out a yard sign might help.

Given the level of anti-Bush energy boosting poll turnouts this year, Ventura Dems have a unique opportunity to enlist the disaffected "why bother" voters. The numbers are much more even than you might believe (about a 5-point spread between Dems and Reps with 20% independents in Ventura city proper), but the Republican GOTV in disproportionate numbers. That's got to change.

[pelagius]

15. Gallegly 61.8% - Wagner 34.5%

Push the crow over to this side of the table, please. Wasn't even close enough for the Green to be the spoiler. Sigh.


-----------------------------------
ELTON GALLEGLY, REP 102,682 61.8%
BRETT WAGNER, DEM 57,401 34.5%
STUART A BECHMAN, GRN 5,596 3.4%
Write-in candidate(s) 473 0.3%

[pelagius]

10. Wagner Campaign Contacts

Since I've preached "get out and support Brett Wagner" I'll provide contact numbers to do so:

VENTURA: Joe Huser [phone],
[e-mail]

CONEJO VALLEY: Brian Robles [phone],
[e-mail]

SIMI VALLEY: Brian Ellison [phone],
[e-mail]

CAMARILLO: Austin Novstrup [phone],
[e-mail]

LOMPOC: Chris Swift [phone],
[e-mail]

There's also the website at www.brettwagner2004.com.

See you on the streets and at the polls!

[lwin]

11. The Green party has a few things to say about Wagner

They've been pretty quiet and not hostile towards the Demos in Ventura County, until recently. This speaks volumes, IMO.

BECHMAN CAMPAIGN CHARGES DEMOCRATIC OPPONENT WITH USING "DIRTY TRICKS"TO ILLICITLY GAIN GREEN VOTES

Simi Valley - The Bechman campaign charged today that the Wagner for Congress campaign has stooped to unethical behavior in a desperate attempt to convince Greens to give up their vote to Bechman this coming November.

"In a race that is focused on the lack of honesty and integrity in our government, it is appalling to see the Democratic candidate pulling the same kinds of vote manipulation stunts as Karl Rove," stated Mark D. Barney, Bechman for Congress campaign manager. "How could anyone who cares about the lies in Washington support a candidate who needs to tell his volunteers to lie for him?"

The Bechman campaign received a call from a Green in Ventura who complained that he had received a call from someone claiming to be "a Green Party rep," but telling him that candidate Bechman was urging all Greens to vote for Democratic candidate Wagner in order to keep from spoiling the race. The Green noted that the call had come from a Ventura car dealership.

"This is a sad tactic from a desperate candidate," Congressional candidate Stuart Bechman stated. "This ham-handed attempt to mislead Ventura County voters shows that the Democrats are as corrupt as the Republicans." Bechman added that his campaign is not working with any car dealership to make party phone calls, nor are he or his volunteers calling for Greens to support Wagner.

Barney notes that Wagner and his supporters have been claiming for weeks that their candidate was "within the margin of error" of winning the 24th Congressional District race. When confronted about this claim at a Newsreal film showing in Ventura last Wednesday, Wagner claimed that his knowledge was coming from a graduate student who was conducting political polls as part of a "secret graduate student project" that Wagner claimed to be "ethically bound" to not disclose.

Several Green Party members were surprised last week when the Ventura County Star included a notice for a debate at Ventura College between Congressional candidates Brett Wagner and Elton Gallegly. (But without including Green Party candidate Stuart Bechman.) Bechman for Congress campaign manager Barney noted: "Gallegly is notorious for avoiding the public limelight; and if this announcement had been true, it would have been the first time in some sixteen years that Gallegly would have agreed to a public campaign debate. It turned out that the Gallegly campaign had never agreed to participate, and so Wagner simply used the event to campaign for his race without competition."

Barney added: "Wagner's 'Dirty Tricks' behavior and irresponsible claims in this campaign are going to do more damage to the Ventura Democratic Party than anything the Greens or Republicans could ever hope to do. We've done our own private polling on this race, and we predict that Wagner will lose by more than 20 points on Tuesday, far below even his Democratic registration base."

I think their predictions about election return numbers are correct.

[pelagius]

12. Interesting, but unsubstantiated claims

What is described in the Green Party press release sounds shady. If the Green Party has evidence to support the allegations they've made, it needs to be presented. The phone call urging Green support of Wagner sounds like a rogue volunteer -- is their only one incident that has been reported? -- and the no-show debate item can be explained in a number of ways other than dirty tricks. Bungling, for example. A few more facts are required.

Wagner's "private polls" are probably BS, just as the Greens' are. It may not seem pure as the driven snow, but it isn't unprecedented for any campaign to use the most optimistic numbers they can find to bolster their case. Since there have been no independent polls conducted, we'll only know the truth on election day.

Let me be clear -- I support Wagner's candidacy because he's the most credible moderate-to-left candidate the Dems have been able to field against the hard right in this county. He's far from perfect. I think he is unlikely to win, but do believe a credible showing on his party will convince Democrats (and allied independents) that there is hope for a Democrat in this district. That will have enormous impact -- if a Democrat can stand respectably in Reagan Country, it may indicate a sea change is afoot.

As far as the Green Party and its candidates, I sincerely urge the party to consider winning elections for local water boards and city councils. It took 5000 votes to win a seat on Ventura's City Council last election. Surely the Greens can round up that number of votes. A Green presence in those offices would create a practical base for candidates who follow. From there, legitimate challenges in the statewide and national races can be mounted. First steps first, though.

Right now, it appears that the primary Green tactic is too attack whomever is the Democratic candidate for being a stooge to corporate interests, practitioner of "dirty tricks," and, in general, interchangeable with the Republican candidate.

The "no difference" strategy played its role in creating the BushCo administration. It's too important to get the Galleglys and the Bushes on the run this time around.

In 24th District race, crying "foul" against Wagner is likely to have little to no impact. In my opinion, circulating lightly-substantiated rumors a week before the election is merely a "fuck you, if the Greens can't win, we're going to drag you down with us" tantrum.

Sorry to be so harsh, but the last four years have made me a hardline asshole.

[pelagius]

16. Wagner did use his "within the margin of error" poll numbers...

...repeatedly to supporters, most recently in a letter a few days before the election trying to raise $10,000 "in the next 24 hours" to apparently (given the tone) prevent the campaign from imploding.

I have to believe at this point he had (a) inexperienced or just plain bad pollsters generating his numbers or (b) access to good numbers he lied about.

If he claimed to be at around (give or take) 50% a few days before the election, his 30% drop in a few days is truly remarkable.

I will be inquiring about this issue in the very near future. If anyone has any information they'd like to share, please post it here or send me a private email. Thanks.

Also, I feel I owe <lwin> an apology for ripping apart the memo she posted. Chalk it up to pre-election jitters, please. It seems Wagner's poll numbers are suspect. I was wrong, the Greens were right.

[DemOperative]

13. I have to echo this

That Green release looks like it was written by a very scared Gallegly drone.

Our internal polling agrees with Brett's Grad students, who are running a classic sample, and are hardly unknown. Wagner trails but has closed strongly and remains within the ME of Gallegly.

If there's anything we know, bith nationally and in Ventura County, it's that no one is measuring the newly registereds who are about 5:1 democrats. If they turn out, Wagner gets it IMO.

[pelagius]

14. Sounds like you have better access...

...to numbers than I do. Which is likely, since I have no access! :-)

I'm glad to hear the numbers are that close. My wife and I cast our Wagner votes 15 minutes ago! This would be a huge upset. I'm cautious, but optimistic.

[lwin]

17. No problem, we're on the same team.

Also, I feel I owe <lwin> an apology for ripping apart the memo she posted. Chalk it up to pre-election jitters, please. It seems Wagner's poll numbers are suspect. I was wrong, the Greens were right.

Hey Pleagius, no apology necessary, but I appreciate the gesture.:-) We're on the same team. If we can't have an honest discourse amongst ourselves, we'll never get anywhere in VC. If we just wanted to make "rah rah" posts and only listen to the party line, we'd change our registration and be over on the Freeper forum.

When the Greens make a statement about something that is going on around here, I tend to listen. With a grand total of 2,635 registered Greens in 24th district, they know they don't have a dog in the race. (no offense to Stuart Bechman, who I think is a good guy) Greens vote Dem most of the time in critical races.

Bechman got 6,038 votes in this election. Even if every Green in the district showed up and voted a straight Green ticket, that still leaves you with nearly 230% INCREASE in the number of votes they received over their base. You've got a sizeable number of voters who were sending a little message on election day. They felt safe in doing so, because they know their neighbors...and knew they would turn out big for Gallegly. They may not like him, but they didn't like Wagner either.

As far as the poll numbers...I don't like being told to drink the koolaid, whether it's red, green or blue. Claiming to be within the margin of error and to have victory within your grasp, and then you come in nearly 28 points behind the winner, is really beyond the pale, imo.

It feels bad enough to have Kerry come in 3 points behind Chimpy. I've still got a blue koolaid hangover.

[pelagius]

18. You are very gracious, which I appreciate.

I feel like I've been had and it's not a good feeling. If nothing else, I like to think myself wise (cynical?) enough to ferret out the truth. I got snookered and passed bad information to my friends and relatives. Grrrrrr....