Patrick leads Reilly in delegates by 2-1 margin

[welshTerrier2]

it's hard to see how Reilly can recover from this ... before yesterday, Reilly seemed like the clear favorite ... today, it's hard to see what he can do to reverse the groundswell for Patrick ... in Watertown yesterday, not only did Patrick win and win big in Reilly's hometown, but Reilly's own daughter failed to win a seat as a delegate ...

the biggest Reilly supporter in my town was running to become a Reilly delegate yesterday ... all delegates were given two minutes to "campaign" and make a little speech ... he looked around the room and said, in the most telling remark of the day, "Gee, there sure are a lot of new people here i've never seen before." ... it did NOT seem he was saying he was pleased with the turnout; his point was that he knew "all the old regulars" were not going to be enough to get him elected ... and he did NOT get elected ...

there was an energy at our caucus i've never seen before at any Democratic meeting in our little town ... new faces, new energy, new kind of candidate walking away with all the delegates ... it's too soon to know if this trend will go beyond just party activists in Massachusetts ... will Mass voters turnout with a renewed energy for change? is this the vanguard of a change nationally? have Americans finally had enough of leadership that's been adrift in this country for decades? or was this just a bunch of Democrats fed-up with losing elections? i have no idea ... do you?

here's an article about yesterday's caucuses:

source: http://www.boston.com/news/politics/governors/articles/2006/02/05/patrick_wins_big_among_delegates/

In his first test as a candidate for governor, political newcomer Deval Patrick scored a sweeping victory at Democratic caucuses yesterday, trouncing Attorney General Thomas F. Reilly, a two-term statewide office holder.

Delegate slates pledged to Patrick, the former top federal civil rights prosecutor and business executive, rolled up margins at local party meetings that will give him close to a 2-to-1 advantage over Reilly in the count of committed delegates, according to several Democratic Party strategists around the state. <skip>

Reilly won more than 60 percent of the delegates in Boston, drawing on Mayor Thomas M. Menino's political operation, a Menino strategist said. In Lowell, where state Senator Steven C. Panagiotakos and US Representative Martin Meehan rallied support, Reilly won 49 delegates to Patrick's 6. <skip>

"Tom Reilly's strength has never been in the grass roots and the caucuses," former state senator Warren Tolman of Watertown, a 2002 Democratic gubernatorial candidate, said after the Watertown caucus results were announced. "He's just not their cup of tea."

"But when you are running against a newcomer and you are the eight-year statewide office holder, there are expectations that you should be doing a lot better," Tolman said.

As Reilly has tried to run to the center, Patrick has spent a lot of time cultivating party activists, touting liberal positions. Still, Reilly holds a commanding lead in fund-raising, having accumulated close to $4 million while Patrick has just over $700,000 on hand.

[merbex]

1. I just posted on another board that based on my own (granted,entirely

unscientific grassroots push to get elected a Deval Patrick delegate)experiences,Reilly has NO CHANCE in my hometown getting so called moderates and independents to vote for him.

If that had been an election and not a caucus in my hometown based on conversations with registered Democrats and sometimes the Unenrolled there would have been a victory for Deval Patrick.

Cape Wind Farm is a HUGE winner for Deval in my area. Alternative energy is big,high property taxes with less services is big and what to do about that,education is mentioned

Reilly's stance on issues comes across as "playing it safe" and then he pulls the Lt Gov thing and people are essentially saying "Who IS this guy?" "Has he ALWAYS been like this?" They don't want a candidate that is CONFUSED and CONFUSING. It is just too much

And you so seldom get a second chance to make a first impression

Make your bets now on how soon Reilly challenges D.Patrick to a debate:then you'll know it is desperation time for him

[pmegan]

2. Debate

I don't think that Reilly will do a debate... he has to know how charismatic Deval is, and part of the "I am not a politician" thing is an admittal of his lack of charisma. Even though he thinks that he's a better candidate, there's no way he can think that he'd win a debate against Patrick.

[paineinthearse]

3. Nominated

Let's get this up to 5 so the rest of the country can see how effective a grassroots campaign can be, no matter where.

[pmegan]

4. nominate?

Sorry, I'm a n00b, what do you mean nominate>

[paineinthearse]

5. recommend

See the hot link at the bottom of the intitial post, "nominate"?

When you have a gold star and think that a post has merit, click on it within 24 hours of initial posting.

When it has 5 nominations, it goes to the "greatest" page.

noob, lol. Welcome aboard.

[merbex]

6. Nominated and kicked n/t

[Surya Gayatri]

7. K & R--From your keyboard to God's ears...

"...is this the vanguard of a change nationally? have Americans finally had

enough of leadership that's been adrift in this country for decades?" May

your words prove to be prophetic & may that great cradle of revolution,

Massachusetts, be a harbinger of the growing movement.

SG

[paineinthearse]

8. I hear it's now 5-1.

Anyone have any hard figures?

[merbex]

9. I have heard rumours that Reilly barely got 15% on caucus day

he admits to 850 the threshhold was 800

If that is the case - that he barely got 15% and there were a few "undeclared"elected- it is conceivable that Deval Patrick got close to 80% on caucus day