What's the Matter With Minnesota?

[iowasocialist]

OK, Minnesotans:

Why is Obama up by 9 points in Wisconsin and 11 in my state, Iowa, while in Minnesota it is only 2 points?

Is your right wing so much stronger there?

[Eric J in MN]

1. Because Obama campaigned in Iowa for months, and...

...he's advertising much more in Wisconsin.

I see tons of McCain TV ads here in MN, and I haven't seen any for Obama since before the Feb 5 caucus.

[CatholicEdHead]

2. I agree, McCain ads but also some left from the RNC

That tightened things up quite a bit. Also McCain is a bit more popular in rural areas.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

3. I've seen a couple of Obama ads, but many more nasty, lying McCain ads

especially the ones about "Barack Obama is going to raise taxes on seniors and the middle class," when the exact opposite is true.

[CatholicEdHead]

5. The more I think about it more, the nasty Franken ads also hurt

You know the swearing/"mean" ones taken from his Air America days.

[Tigress DEM]

6. A lot are total lies. BUT I'd rather have someone who is MAD AS HELL & not going to take it anymore

then Nermal who never met a white rethug ass he could resist kissing or a lobbyist joy ride he wouldn't take.

[Kilroy003]

11. The DU'ers at the SD40 convention thought it would hurt as well.

Seems like most of us there were Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer backers anyway, for that and other reasons.

[dflprincess]

12. I think SD 40 was pretty well divided between Franken and Nelson-Pallmeyer

It's hard to say as we did have to split between Bloomington and Burnsville sides of the district. I know on the Bloomington side we sent 2 Nelson-Pallmeyer delegates and 2 alternates on out of my subcaucus. But, I think we only had one JNP subcaucus on that side of the district so Franken may have done a bit better.

And, I think most of us were JNP supporters because of the issues - especially the war and single payer healthcare. I don't think anyone was thinking about how nasty this was going to get.

[question everything]

15. He may have had a chance if we selected our candidates in primaries

instead of letting a few hundred activists endorse them and then, not having the one who was not endorsed staying in the race being stigmatized.

[MnFats]

9. I do, too.

some of them are extremely low blows.
also, despite the police riot, the GOP got a bit of bounce from the convention.
wait 'til Obama begins to fight.
remember the big crowds for Kerry four years ago? The rallies for Obama will dwarf them...

i am still hearing rumors of some big 'concert for change' event...

[question everything]

16. I'd rather Obama spend more time and money in VA and OH and FL

and win all, including MN by a few percentage points, than win only MN by a huge margin.

[loveable liberal]

4. Because Feelenty ruined our educational system.

We're dumb.

[wellstone dem]

7. thanks for the best response!

[pyro858]

8. Because the state Iq has dropped and a lot of racists here

I've talked to life-long democrats that won't vote for obama because he's black, many are voting nader. sad in this day and age. plus there's just a lot of stupid people out there. steady diet of right-wing media doesn't help either

[Kilroy003]

10. I'm not sure. I think it's the RNC.

Got a lot of people who didn't otherwise pay any attention to politics to notice for a week.

I've seen an unnerving number of McCain/Palin signs in Bloomington front yards for the last few weeks.

Everyone needs to go to mn.barackobama.com and sign up to do Neighbor to Neighbor and start calling these people.

If this state flips I'll freak out.

[dflprincess]

13. I wouldn't judge how Minnesota is going by Bloomington.

It did go Kerry last time, but not by much and I can't remember if it had every gone for a Democrat before (that would be the city as a whole, not the areas that have sent a DFLer to the state legislature.)

I think the big factor may be that McCain signs are easier to come by than Obama's. I see a lot more Obama bumper stickers.

[CatholicEdHead]

14. There are many McCain/Pain signs in the west metro

They are in Minnetonka and Eden Prairie along 494. That is expected given the area.

[dodger501]

17. How can this be?

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0782fede-2757-4c86-9479-f84f02afc9fb

McCain up by one in Minnesota? What the hell happened to this state?
Somebody talk me down, please?

[GhostofRichardRorty]

18. It is one (weighted) poll

First:  I am not worried b/c the Obama campaign has their own,
proprietary data and THEY are not worried.  I know some may
disagree but I think their campaign has been brilliantly run.

Second: The cities of Saint Paul & Minneapolis are heavily
"blue," but it gets splotchy or downright read the
farther away you go.  Gore only won the state by 2% in 2000;
Kerry expanded that to 3.48% in 2004.  So don't expect a
10-point win here.  I am not thrilled by that admission, as
this is the state that brought us some noteworthy liberals in
the past, but that is the way it is now.

Third: Other polls have shown Obama in a substantial lead,
including CNN: "Obama's also making gains over McCain in
Minnesota, the state in which the Republican convention was
held a month ago. Fifty-four percent of those questioned are
backing Obama, with 43 percent supporting McCain,
R-Arizona."  How can one poll show McCain ahead by one
and another with Obama up by 11?  It is due to sampling error.
 This is particularly the case when a poll, like the one
showing McCain up by one, is "weighted" to represent
groups (as if groups are that predictable).

So, don't fret.  Minnesota will vote for Obama, even if not by
as wide a margin as we'd like.

[dflprincess]

19. Remember, Nader took about 5% of the vote in 2000

so look at it as Bush lost Minnesota by 7%. The Greens didn't do as well here in 2004 and, given what's at stake, smaller parties will hopefully have very little affect on where Minnesota's electoral votes go. Though I am worried that that damn Independence party is going to get Coleman reelected.

[nadine_mn]

20. I am saddened by the number of McPain and Coleman signs I see

what the hell happened to one of the most liberal states... when did all the racist narrow-minded religious freaks take over. I remember MN being known for its forward thinking... good lord you would think we were in Mississippi instead of the birthplace of the Mississippi

[mascarax]

21. Signs

I know, but it's because it's so hard to get the signs. I'm still waiting for the one I am supposed to get from the Obama campaign for a donation, and the other one I bought from demstore.com (am starting to wonder if that was a good choice to order from them).

[Lydia Leftcoast]

23. The suburbs gained a lot of Sunbelt migrants (and their megachurches) in the 1980s, and

also gained population through white flight after the schools were desegregated.

In the rural areas, I believe that the Democrats blew a huge opportunity to win the hearts and minds of rural residents when they failed to do anything about the farm crisis of the early 1980s. They had a majority in both Houses of Congress and could have proposed a low-interest refinancing program for farmers who were in danger of foreclosure due to the double whammy of record high interest rates and record low prices for their crops and livestock. Even if Reagan had vetoed it, the Dems would have gotten credit for caring.

The Republicans, meanwhile, gained points through their emphasis on behavioral issues. Now the Democrats are the people who could have helped the farmers but didn't and also push social positions that in many cases agree with what rural residents actually DO but are in conflict with how they perceive themselves. (For example, small town and rural residents like to see themselves as more virtuous than city people, especially in sexual matters, so they vote for abstinence-only sex education and restrictions on abortion, but in fact, the rate of unwed teenage pregnancy can be just as high in a small town as in an inner city neighborhood.)

[kikiek]

22. Obama is up by 5 now. And he is just starting the ads here. It will go up quickly I bet.